The agricultural fund trade is changing again. Soybeans have returned to accumulation, but corn, cotton and sugar are now contracting and Chicago wheat's brief bullish crossover has almost completely reversed — with funds unwinding positions they established only weeks ago.
TL;DR
- Soybeans reversed last week's reduction, adding 23,658 contracts to +265,159, through 18,161 new longs and 5,497 shorts covered.
- Corn fell 10,363 contracts to +404,097, principally through 12,272 contracts of outright long liquidation.
- Soybean meal extended to +191,087, almost double its 25 August position, while soybean oil reversed lower to +92,137.
- Cotton saw 15,373 longs liquidated, reducing net length by 15,753 contracts to +76,182.
- Chicago SRW wheat fell another 8,342 contracts to −12,016. HRW weakened to +40,635, while Minneapolis HRS edged down to +21,397.
- Cocoa moved deeper net short to −16,406 through simultaneous long liquidation and new short selling.
- Sugar declined for a second consecutive week, from +238,684 to +225,430 and now +216,629, extending the positioning reduction identified in Bloodstone's 21 September sugar analysis.
- Three of the largest agricultural net longs — corn, sugar and cotton — are now contracting simultaneously. Only soybeans and meal are building.
The Positioning Board
| Market | Long | Short | Net | Previous Net | WoW Net | Δ Long | Δ Short |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corn | 471,466 | 67,369 | +404,097 | +414,460 | −10,363 | −12,272 | −1,909 |
| Soybeans | 300,742 | 35,583 | +265,159 | +241,501 | +23,658 | +18,161 | −5,497 |
| Sugar No. 11 | 313,924 | 97,295 | +216,629 | +225,430 | −8,801 | −7,444 | +1,357 |
| Soybean Meal | 202,722 | 11,635 | +191,087 | +183,111 | +7,976 | +7,495 | −481 |
| Soybean Oil | 119,764 | 27,627 | +92,137 | +101,480 | −9,343 | −6,601 | +2,742 |
| Cotton No. 2 | 88,885 | 12,703 | +76,182 | +91,935 | −15,753 | −15,373 | +380 |
| Live Cattle | 80,270 | 31,180 | +49,090 | +47,696 | +1,394 | −416 | −1,810 |
| HRW Wheat | 76,739 | 36,104 | +40,635 | +44,413 | −3,778 | −2,115 | +1,663 |
| Minneapolis HRS | 24,562 | 3,165 | +21,397 | +22,220 | −823 | −334 | +489 |
| Coffee C | 33,136 | 17,330 | +15,806 | +20,661 | −4,855 | −2,091 | +2,764 |
| Chicago SRW Wheat | 88,801 | 100,817 | −12,016 | −3,674 | −8,342 | −6,997 | +1,345 |
| Cocoa | 17,515 | 33,921 | −16,406 | −9,539 | −6,867 | −5,145 | +1,722 |
| Lean Hogs | 62,744 | 104,884 | −42,140 | −37,768 | −4,372 | +3,365 | +7,737 |
Source: CFTC Disaggregated Commitments of Traders, Futures Only, managed-money positions as of 22 September 2026. Weekly changes are against the contemporaneous 15 September vintage. Contract counts should be compared within individual markets rather than aggregated across commodities.
Soybeans Reverse; Meal Keeps Building
Soybeans produced the clearest reversal. Managed money increased net length by 23,658 contracts to +265,159, with gross longs rising 18,161 to 300,742 while shorts fell 5,497 to 35,583. That follows a 15,757-contract reduction in the previous reporting week, meaning the pullback lasted precisely one reporting period.
The physical evidence makes the renewed accumulation notable. USDA's latest Crop Progress report, covering the week ended 20 September, left soybeans at 58% good/excellent, three percentage points below last year. Harvest reached 12%, against 8% both last year and on the five-year average. The September production estimate remains a prospective record 4.535 billion bushels. Funds are therefore recommitting before harvested-yield evidence has supplied an equivalent new bullish signal.
Meal continues to build. Net length increased another 7,976 contracts to +191,087, taking the position from +95,953 on 25 August to +191,087 on 22 September. Soybean oil moved the other way, falling 9,343 contracts to +92,137 through 6,601 contracts of long liquidation and 2,742 new shorts. The soybean complex is again internally divided rather than expressing one common fund view.
Corn: The Unwind Begins
Corn has progressed from rapid accumulation, to a pause, to outright reduction. Net length fell 10,363 contracts from +414,460 to +404,097 as funds liquidated 12,272 longs while also covering 1,909 shorts.
This is position reduction rather than a new bearish trade. The remaining net long is still the largest contract position on the board, but the direction has changed just as harvest evidence becomes more important.
Corn remained 57% good/excellent in the week ended 20 September, while harvest advanced to 13%, ahead of last year's 10% and the five-year average of 11%. USDA's September production estimate of 15.8 billion bushels remains below earlier expectations, but realised yields can increasingly test it directly.
Cotton: Long Liquidation Accelerates
Cotton produced the largest outright long liquidation on the board. Funds cut 15,373 gross longs to 88,885 while adding 380 shorts, reducing net length by 15,753 contracts to +76,182.
That is a materially faster reduction than in recent reports and comes despite USDA having cut expected US production to 13.2 million bales and yield to 776 pounds per acre. The physical crop has weakened, but speculative exposure is being removed.
Wheat: Three Markets, Three Speeds
All three wheat positions weakened, but the scale differs sharply. Chicago SRW fell another 8,342 contracts to −12,016, through 6,997 contracts of long liquidation and 1,345 new shorts. Its recent sequence — −13,597 → +14,904 → +4,873 → −3,674 → −12,016 — shows how quickly the September crossover has reversed: almost the entire move from net short to net long has unwound within three reporting weeks.
HRW fell 3,778 contracts to +40,635 through both long liquidation and new short selling. Minneapolis HRS changed much less, declining just 823 contracts to +21,397, with longs down 334 and shorts up 489.
The three-way divergence from earlier September has narrowed: all three markets weakened in the same week, but Minneapolis remains firmly net long while Chicago has returned decisively to the short side.
Softs: Bearish Mechanics Broaden
Cocoa moved from −9,539 to −16,406 net short, with funds liquidating 5,145 longs and adding 1,722 shorts. Coffee followed the same pattern: net length fell 4,855 contracts to +15,806 as 2,091 longs were removed and 2,764 shorts added.
Sugar declined for a second consecutive week. Net length has moved from +238,684 to +225,430 and now +216,629, with the latest reduction driven by 7,444 contracts of long liquidation and 1,357 new shorts.
That extends the positioning development identified in Bloodstone's 21 September sugar analysis. The reduction is occurring alongside the easing in the London physical spread discussed there, rather than against an increasingly tight nearby physical signal. Sugar remains heavily net long, but both the size and mechanics of that position are deteriorating.
Livestock: Hogs Get More Bearish
Lean hogs extended their net short from −37,768 to −42,140. Longs actually increased by 3,365 contracts, but shorts climbed by a much larger 7,737, making active short accumulation the dominant signal.
Live cattle moved modestly in the opposite direction. Net length increased 1,394 contracts to +49,090 because shorts fell by 1,810, more than offsetting a 416-contract decline in longs. That is short covering rather than fresh bullish accumulation.
From Rotation to Reversal
Last week's data showed rotation. This week's report shows several of those moves developing into outright reversals.
Soybeans moved from accumulation to reduction and immediately back to accumulation. Chicago wheat's net-long crossover has almost disappeared. Corn has moved from expansion to stasis and now liquidation. Cotton's gradual reduction has accelerated sharply. Meal continues building while soybean oil is sold, and cocoa, coffee and sugar all show increasingly bearish mechanics.
The clearest expression of that change is at the top of the board. Three of the largest agricultural net longs — corn, sugar and cotton — are now contracting simultaneously. Soybeans and soybean meal are moving the other way, both adding exposure. The result is no longer simply rotation between individual markets but a much clearer separation between the positions funds are still prepared to build and those they have begun to unwind.
Harvest is now replacing crop condition as the principal test for corn and soybeans. Positions accumulated during late-summer deterioration increasingly need validation from realised yields, subsequent USDA production estimates, exports and balance-sheet developments.
Outlook
The next phase is likely to be driven less by crop-condition ratings and more by harvest evidence. Corn's +404,097 net long remains large enough that further liquidation could materially change positioning without requiring funds to become outright bearish.
Soybeans present the opposite test. Funds have recommitted aggressively just as harvest accelerates, while meal has almost doubled its net position in four weeks. If realised yields remain benign, those positions will require stronger demand or balance-sheet evidence to sustain them.
Cotton and the softs increasingly show the reverse dynamic: fundamental concerns have not necessarily disappeared, but speculative exposure is being reduced.
Key Risks
The CFTC data describe positioning, not intent. Long liquidation can reflect profit-taking or risk reduction rather than a changed fundamental view, while new shorts do not establish the catalyst behind them.
Harvest data also remain incomplete. Early national yields may not be representative of the final crop, and today's USDA Crop Progress report had not been released at the time of writing.
Cross-market contract counts are not economically comparable. The analysis therefore uses absolute positions within each market and weekly mechanics rather than aggregating contracts across commodities.
Intelligence Monitoring Points
- Corn: whether +414,460 proves to have been the high-water mark and long liquidation accelerates.
- Soybeans: whether renewed accumulation survives expanding harvest evidence.
- Soybean meal: whether the near-doubling from +95,953 can continue without equivalent strengthening in beans and oil.
- Cotton: whether liquidation persists despite USDA's lower production estimate.
- Wheat: whether Chicago rebuilds a materially larger structural short while Minneapolis remains net long.
- Sugar: whether a third consecutive reduction confirms the unwind identified in the 21 September standalone.
- Softs: whether coffee follows cocoa through zero into net-short territory.
FAQ
What changed most this week? Soybeans reversed last week's reduction and added 23,658 contracts of net length, while cotton produced the largest outright long liquidation at 15,373 contracts.
Are funds abandoning corn? Not yet. Net length remains +404,097. The significant change is that rapid accumulation has stopped and outright long liquidation has begun.
Why is soybean meal important? Managed-money net length has risen from +95,953 on 25 August to +191,087 on 22 September, almost doubling in four reporting weeks.
Has Chicago wheat's bullish crossover failed? In positioning terms, yes. Funds moved from −13,597 to +14,904 and have subsequently returned to −12,016.
What happened to Minneapolis wheat? It remains firmly net long at +21,397 and changed by only −823 contracts this week, considerably less than Chicago or HRW.
Can contract positions be compared across commodities? Direction and weekly behaviour can. Absolute contract counts should not be aggregated because contract sizes and underlying exposures differ.
Data and source note: Managed-money positioning is from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission's Disaggregated Commitments of Traders — Futures Only report for positions held on 22 September 2026, released 25 September, compared with the contemporaneous 15 September report. Bloodstone Research preserves each weekly CFTC report as the authoritative historical vintage rather than reconstructing previous positions from later publications. All thirteen markets reconcile to the previous vintage without restatement. The latest available USDA Crop Progress data cover the week ended 20 September 2026: corn was 57% good/excellent and 13% harvested; soybeans were 58% good/excellent and 12% harvested; winter wheat was 17% planted and 2% emerged. USDA's next Crop Progress report is due at 4:00pm ET today and had not been released at the time of writing.
Sources
- US Commodity Futures Trading Commission — Disaggregated Commitments of Traders, Futures Only
- CFTC Public Reporting — COT Disaggregated Futures Only dataset
- USDA NASS — September 2026 reports calendar
- USDA NASS — Crop Progress
- Bloodstone Research — Sugar analysis, 21 September 2026
- Bloodstone Research — Agricultural Positioning Intelligence: The Fund Trade Fractures Further
This document is published by Bloodstone Research for informational and institutional research purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice, an investment recommendation, an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument, commodity or security, or a forecast of future performance. Market conditions and data may change without notice. Readers should conduct their own analysis and, where appropriate, seek independent professional advice before making investment decisions. For institutional enquiries contact research@bloodstonecapital.co.uk.