China Metals: Aluminium Inventories Hit 2026 Low

China's aluminium ingot inventories fell to a fresh 2026 low immediately before the National Day holiday, extending a draw that has become the clearest physical signal across the base-metals complex. Copper stocks also remain lean despite pre-holiday purchasing fading, while zinc and lead are constrained upstream. The question after the holiday is no longer whether inventories rebuild, but how much.

TL;DR

Primary aluminium-ingot inventories fell to 638,000 tonnes on 30 September, down 40,000 tonnes from the previous Thursday and 36,000 tonnes from Monday. SMM described the level as a fresh 2026 low.
The aluminium draw has accelerated into the holiday. The previous China Metals edition recorded a 118,000-tonne decline over the two weeks to 24 September; inventories have since fallen another 40,000 tonnes.
Cast aluminium-alloy inventory also fell for a second consecutive week, declining another 500 tonnes to 31,300 tonnes. High prices constrained more aggressive pre-holiday stockpiling.
Copper remained lean but not strongly demand-led, with Shanghai social inventory at 49,200 tonnes and Jiangsu at 12,700 tonnes on 30 September.
SMM described copper supply and withdrawals as broadly balanced. Limited imports supported low stocks, while downstream companies had largely completed holiday purchasing and new orders remained weak.
Zinc's upstream squeeze continued. SMM's domestic Zn50 concentrate TC reached approximately −RMB2,350 per metal tonne on 30 September, while a southwestern mine set an October tender around −RMB2,300.
Lead concentrate conditions tightened materially: domestic Pb50 TC fell another RMB50 to RMB100 per metal tonne, while imported Pb60 TC dropped $10 to −$185/dmt.
Primary lead supply should improve after the holiday as smelters complete maintenance. SMM's survey found mainstream primary smelters planned to maintain continuous operations during National Day.
Nickel remains the clearest weak physical signal, with refined supply comparatively comfortable and little evidence that upstream disruption has created Chinese scarcity.
The final pre-holiday board remains selective rather than uniformly tight: aluminium is the strongest inventory signal; copper is lean; zinc and lead are constrained upstream; nickel retains substantial buffers.

China Metals Dashboard

Metal	Key physical signal	Latest reading	Direction
Aluminium	Primary ingot inventory	638,000t	↓ Fresh 2026 low
Aluminium	Cast-alloy inventory	31,300t	↓ Second consecutive draw
Copper	Shanghai social inventory	49,200t	Lean
Copper	Jiangsu social inventory	12,700t	Lean
Zinc	Domestic Zn50 TC	~−RMB2,350/metal t	↓ Further tightening
Lead	Domestic Pb50 TC	RMB100/metal t	↓ Tightening
Lead	Imported Pb60 TC	−$185/dmt	↓ Tightening
Nickel	Shanghai #1 refined nickel	~RMB114,000/t	Weak physical signal
Tin	Raw-material availability	—	↔ No material new physical reading

Source: Shanghai Metals Market releases through 30 September 2026. Inventory definitions differ by metal, product and region and should not be aggregated.

Weekly Signal Board

Tightening. Aluminium primary ingot inventory fell to 638,000 tonnes, a fresh 2026 low, with cast-alloy stocks declining for a second consecutive week. Zinc domestic concentrate treatment charges moved deeper into negative territory, to around −RMB2,350 per metal tonne. Lead domestic Pb50 TC fell to RMB100 per metal tonne and imported Pb60 TC to −$185/dmt.

Tight but mixed. Copper social inventories in Shanghai and Jiangsu remain lean at 49,200 tonnes and 12,700 tonnes respectively, but downstream orders have yet to show a convincing recovery.

Looser or buffered. Nickel refined supply remains comparatively comfortable, with little evidence that upstream disruption has translated into Chinese refined-metal scarcity.

No material new signal. Tin has no sufficiently current physical dataset to change the conclusion of the previous edition.

Aluminium

Aluminium has moved from being the strongest new inventory signal in the previous edition to the clearest physical development on the entire board.

SMM put primary aluminium-ingot inventory across China's main consuming regions at 638,000 tonnes on 30 September, down 36,000 tonnes from Monday and 40,000 tonnes from the previous Thursday. The level is a fresh 2026 low.

That extends an already unusually steep draw. The 25 September edition recorded a 118,000-tonne decline over the preceding two weeks, so the final pre-holiday data show that destocking did not merely continue — it accelerated into the break.

The downstream picture has improved as well, although less dramatically. Cast aluminium-alloy social inventory fell another 500 tonnes to 31,300 tonnes, the second consecutive weekly decline after the six-week accumulation ended in the previous edition. The reason matters: SMM said some downstream stocking demand was released before the holiday, but there was no large concentrated stockpiling programme because high aluminium prices and procurement costs limited buying appetite. That makes the inventory draw more interesting than one produced entirely by aggressive holiday restocking.

It still needs to be treated as a pre-holiday number. SMM's historical data show aluminium ingot and billet inventories normally accumulating during National Day as consumption slows while production continues, and the 638,000-tonne starting point leaves more room for that seasonal build than usual.

The useful number will therefore be the first comparable post-holiday reading. A rise is expected. The scale of the rise will determine whether the September draw represented a temporary seasonal distortion or left the physical market structurally lean entering October.

Copper

Copper enters the holiday with limited visible inventory, but the demand evidence remains less convincing than aluminium.

SMM recorded 49,200 tonnes in Shanghai and 12,700 tonnes in Jiangsu on 30 September. Those figures are deliberately presented as levels rather than week-on-week changes. The previous China Metals edition used different SMM observation and comparison dates — including Shanghai at 46,300 tonnes and Jiangsu at 18,200 tonnes — so constructing a direct weekly bridge between the two editions would be misleading.

The latest readings nevertheless confirm that neither region entered National Day with a substantial visible stock cushion. SMM attributed the tight balance partly to limited imported arrivals, while smelter shipments broadly matched downstream cargo collection.

Demand remains more ambiguous. Downstream processors had largely completed holiday purchasing by 30 September and arranged deliveries in advance, while new orders had not shown a significant recovery. SMM expects some restocking demand after the holiday as processors consume existing stocks, but finished-product stocks should also accumulate during the shutdown.

The copper conclusion therefore remains narrower than aluminium's: visible cathode stocks are lean, but low inventory is not evidence by itself of a broad demand acceleration. The first post-holiday readings need to be assessed alongside downstream orders rather than in isolation.

Zinc

Zinc's strongest signal remains upstream.

SMM put domestic Zn50 concentrate TC at approximately −RMB2,350 per metal tonne on 30 September. That is deeper into negative territory than the approximately −RMB2,100 per metal tonne cited in the previous China Metals edition. Because both observations are approximate market assessments, the change should not be presented as an exact RMB250 move.

A southwestern Chinese mine also set an October zinc-concentrate tender at approximately −RMB2,300 per metal tonne on an ex-warehouse basis. Both readings reinforce the same point: competition for available concentrate remains intense.

The distinction between upstream scarcity and downstream strength remains important. Nothing in the final pre-holiday data justifies treating the concentrate squeeze as evidence of uniformly strong zinc consumption. Galvanising operating rates had already weakened to 53.39% in the previous reading as some businesses prepared for holiday shutdowns.

Zinc therefore enters October with an unusually tight raw-material market but a much less convincing downstream demand signal. The next useful test is whether treatment charges remain deeply negative as galvanising activity normalises after the holiday.

Lead

Lead's upstream conditions tightened sharply into the holiday.

SMM's domestic Pb50 concentrate TC fell by RMB50 during the shortened 28–30 September week to RMB100 per metal tonne, while imported Pb60 TC declined another $10 to −$185/dmt. Smelters and mines were negotiating October terms as both domestic and imported charges moved lower.

The refined side may move in the opposite direction after the holiday. SMM surveyed 16 primary lead smelters across seven provinces and found that mainstream producers did not plan full shutdowns for National Day, with smelting systems expected to continue operating on rotating shifts. Plants in Henan, Inner Mongolia, Yunnan and other regions that had previously undergone maintenance were also gradually resuming production.

That matters because the previous edition showed unusually low available stocks, with secondary-lead finished-product inventory falling from 12,400 tonnes to 8,000 tonnes and primary inventories at their lowest in more than two and a half years.

The pre-holiday draw therefore meets a potentially different October supply picture. Concentrate terms are tightening, but refined output should recover as maintenance ends, and lead's first post-holiday inventory reading will show which side is moving faster.

Nickel

Nickel continues to provide the clearest counterweight to the tightening elsewhere.

SMM's Shanghai #1 refined nickel assessment was around RMB114,000 per tonne on 30 September. Refined supply conditions remained comparatively comfortable, with little evidence that upstream disruption had translated into scarcity in the Chinese refined market.

That distinction remains the relevant physical signal. Supply interruptions can affect production without immediately creating scarcity where inventories and alternative supply are sufficient to absorb them. Nickel therefore remains the weakest physical signal on the board entering the holiday.

Tin

Tin has no sufficiently current physical release to change the conclusion of the previous edition. August trade data showed improving raw-material availability, but until the next inventory or import vintage arrives there is little value in repeating those figures.

The Physical Signal Into National Day

The final September board is tighter than it was at the beginning of the month, but the tightening is not uniform.

Aluminium is the clearest case. Primary ingot stocks have fallen rapidly to 638,000 tonnes, a fresh 2026 low, while the cast-alloy inventory build has reversed for two consecutive weeks. That is a broader signal than the primary-ingot draw alone.

Copper is lean but more ambiguous. Shanghai and Jiangsu stocks remain low, yet SMM's own description points to limited arrivals and balanced withdrawals rather than a powerful demand acceleration.

Zinc and lead show their tightness further upstream. Zinc concentrate treatment charges have moved deeper into negative territory, while domestic and imported lead TCs both deteriorated. In lead, however, refined production should recover as maintenance ends.

Nickel remains the exception, with the market continuing to carry enough physical buffer to absorb supply disruption without producing an obvious scarcity signal.

That leaves the National Day holiday as a useful natural test. Inventory accumulation is normal when downstream consumption slows but smelters continue producing, so a post-holiday build in aluminium or copper would not by itself invalidate the September tightening. The useful comparison will be the size of the accumulation relative to normal holiday patterns and the speed at which it is subsequently absorbed.

Outlook

Base case: Aluminium and copper inventories rebuild during National Day, but from unusually lean starting points. Zinc and lead concentrate terms remain tight, while nickel continues to show greater physical availability.

Tighter scenario: Aluminium's holiday accumulation is unusually small, copper inventories remain low as processors return, and zinc and lead treatment charges deteriorate further. That would broaden the evidence of physical tightness beyond a pre-holiday inventory effect.

Looser scenario: Aluminium records a large seasonal build, copper downstream orders remain weak and recovering primary lead production replenishes refined inventories quickly. In that case, September's inventory draws would look more seasonal than structural.

What would change the view: The first comparable post-holiday aluminium inventory reading is now the single most useful data point. For copper, the combination of social stocks and downstream orders matters more than either alone. For zinc and lead, treatment charges need to be read alongside refined-metal inventories and operating rates.

Key Risks

Holiday distortion. Pre-National Day purchasing can accelerate inventory withdrawals immediately before consumption stops for the holiday.

Inventory definitions and dates differ. SMM series cover different products, regions, methodologies and observation dates. Regional readings should not be bridged mechanically where the underlying comparison periods differ.

Low inventory is not synonymous with strong demand. Copper demonstrates the distinction: limited arrivals can reduce stocks even when downstream orders are weak.

Upstream and refined markets can diverge. Deeply negative zinc treatment charges describe concentrate scarcity, not necessarily refined-zinc scarcity.

Production recovery matters. Lead smelter restarts could reverse part of the pre-holiday inventory draw even while concentrate conditions remain tight.

Price bases require care. SMM domestic metal assessments are Chinese physical-market prices, generally quoted on a VAT-inclusive RMB basis. Where SMM supplies a USD conversion, it remains a conversion of that domestic price basis and should not be compared directly with an LME quotation.

Intelligence Monitoring Points

Aluminium ingot inventory, from the 638,000-tonne 30 September starting point, and the size of the National Day accumulation.
Cast aluminium-alloy inventory, at 31,300 tonnes after its second consecutive weekly decline.
Copper social inventory, at 49,200 tonnes in Shanghai and 12,700 tonnes in Jiangsu, after the holiday.
Copper downstream orders, to distinguish supply-driven low stocks from genuine consumption improvement.
Domestic zinc concentrate TC, around −RMB2,350 per metal tonne, and whether October negotiations push terms deeper into negative territory.
Zinc downstream operating rates, particularly galvanising after the holiday shutdown period.
Lead Pb50 TC, at RMB100 per metal tonne, and imported Pb60 at −$185/dmt.
Primary lead inventories and output as maintenance-affected smelters restart.
Chinese refined nickel conditions, as the clearest test of whether upstream disruption is transmitting into the refined market.
Tin raw-material imports and refined inventories, to establish whether improved mine supply is moving through the chain.

FAQ

What is the strongest China metals signal entering October? Aluminium. Primary ingot inventory fell to 638,000 tonnes on 30 September, a fresh 2026 low, while cast-alloy inventory fell for a second consecutive week.

How much did aluminium inventory fall in the latest week? Primary ingot inventory fell 40,000 tonnes from the previous Thursday and 36,000 tonnes between Monday and Wednesday.

Is copper still physically tight? Visible stocks remain lean, at 49,200 tonnes in Shanghai and 12,700 tonnes in Jiangsu, but SMM also reported that holiday purchasing was largely complete and new-order recovery remained weak.

Why are zinc treatment charges negative? Negative TCs reflect severe competition among smelters for available concentrate. The latest domestic Zn50 reading was approximately −RMB2,350 per metal tonne.

Is lead tightening too? Upstream, yes. Domestic and imported concentrate TCs both fell. Refined supply may improve after National Day, however, as maintenance-affected primary smelters resume production.

Is nickel becoming scarce? The Chinese refined market does not yet indicate that. Refined supply conditions remained comparatively comfortable through 30 September.

Should an aluminium inventory increase after National Day be considered bearish? Not automatically. Holiday accumulation is normal. The important variables are how large the build is relative to historical holiday patterns and how quickly it is absorbed afterwards.

Data and source note: Chinese physical-market data are from Shanghai Metals Market releases through 30 September 2026. Inventory series cover different products, geographical areas, observation dates and methodologies and should not be aggregated or bridged mechanically unless the underlying series and comparison dates are directly comparable. Zinc treatment-charge assessments are approximate market readings; changes between rounded observations should therefore be interpreted directionally rather than as exact arithmetic movements. Tin ore and concentrate import figures, where referenced historically, are gross physical tonnes rather than contained tin. SMM domestic price assessments are generally quoted in RMB on a VAT-inclusive Chinese physical-market basis. Any USD conversions supplied by SMM retain that underlying basis and are not directly comparable with LME prices.

Sources

This document is published by Bloodstone Research for informational and institutional research purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice, an investment recommendation, an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument, commodity or security, or a forecast of future performance. Market conditions and data may change without notice. Readers should conduct their own analysis and, where appropriate, seek independent professional advice before making investment decisions. For institutional enquiries contact research@bloodstonecapital.co.uk.

China Metals Intelligence — Aluminium Inventories Hit 2026 Low