China Precious Metals Intelligence — Gold Falls as Palladium Leads Post-Holiday Declines

China's precious-metals markets reopened lower after the National Day holiday, with palladium recording the sharpest futures decline. Gold and silver also weakened, but physical-market activity, inventories and import data reveal a more differentiated picture than exchange prices alone suggest.

TL;DR

• Gold: Shanghai Gold Exchange Au99.99 closed at 892.00 yuan/g on 8 October, down 1.69% against the pre-holiday session.
• Silver: SHFE's most-traded silver futures contract fell 2.16% to 14,605 yuan/kg, while spot inquiries improved following the holiday.
• Silver inventories: SMM reported Chinese silver social inventory of 3,934 tonnes, down just two tonnes from the preceding observation.
• Platinum: GFEX PT2612 fell 3.37% to 406.05 yuan/g against its pre-holiday close.
• Palladium: GFEX PD2612 declined 6.95% to 271.90 yuan/g, with physical buying interest strengthening as prices retreated.
• Imports: China's August unwrought palladium imports reached 3.35 tonnes, up 73.58% year on year, while platinum imports totalled 8.11 tonnes.

China's Precious Metals Market Reopens

Chinese precious-metals trading resumed on Thursday 8 October following the National Day holiday. Domestic markets had been closed from 1 to 7 October, leaving exchange prices to incorporate developments that occurred while Chinese trading was suspended.

The reporting period matters. Changes recorded on 8 October are measured against 30 September, an eight-calendar-day interval rather than an ordinary daily movement. SMM suspended domestic metal price assessments during the holiday, while overseas markets continued trading.

All four principal precious metals weakened on reopening. Gold and silver declined, while platinum and particularly palladium experienced sharper adjustments. The movements reflected a combination of overseas price weakness, monetary-policy uncertainty and the accumulated effects of the trading interruption.

Physical-market conditions were less uniformly negative. SMM reported improving silver spot inquiries and active buying of platinum and palladium as prices fell. Meanwhile, China's silver social inventory was effectively unchanged in the latest observation, suggesting no substantial immediate inventory drawdown.

The Precious Metals Board

Sources: Shanghai Gold Exchange and SMM, 8 October 2026. GFEX platinum and palladium figures are 11:30 observations, not full-day settlements. SGE, SHFE and GFEX prices refer to different contracts and trading conventions.

Gold: Shanghai Reopens Lower

Gold's post-holiday decline was evident across the Shanghai Gold Exchange's principal contracts. Au99.99 closed at 892.00 yuan/g, down 15.32 yuan/g or 1.69% against 30 September, with a weighted-average trading price of 892.64 yuan/g and reported trading volume of 14,411.92 kg. Au(T+D), the exchange's deferred-settlement gold contract, closed at 891.75 yuan/g, down 1.17%, while iAu99.99 closed at 890.22 yuan/g, down 1.85%.

Source: Shanghai Gold Exchange, 8 October 2026. Volumes represent exchange trading activity, not physical withdrawals or end-user consumption.

SMM's separate Gold 99 benchmark stood at approximately 893.30 yuan/g on 8 October. That figure is a Bloodstone calculation rather than a direct observation: SMM published a 9 October assessment of 902.30 yuan/g alongside a reported increase of 9.00 yuan/g, implying a preceding level of 893.30 yuan/g.

The distinction between the two sources is important. The SGE provides observed exchange trading prices, while SMM publishes domestic market assessments. Their quotations are related but not interchangeable, and the broadly similar direction across SGE contracts confirms a domestic repricing on reopening rather than a contract-specific movement.

The available data establish a clear downward price adjustment. They do not establish whether physical investment demand increased materially as prices declined, nor whether jewellery and wholesale demand strengthened beyond normal post-holiday activity.

Silver: Prices Decline, Inventories Barely Move

Silver also reopened lower. SMM reported the most-traded SHFE silver futures contract falling 2.16% to 14,605 yuan/kg, while SGE Ag(T+D) closed at 14,336 yuan/kg, down 3.53%. The two observations refer to different contracts and venues, and their price difference does not establish a physical premium or discount.

SMM's 1# silver assessment for 8 October was approximately 14,631.50 yuan/kg. As with the gold benchmark, this is a Bloodstone calculation from SMM's published 9 October assessment of 14,577.00 yuan/kg and the reported decline of 54.50 yuan/kg. It provides a domestic physical-market reference alongside the exchange prices.

Spot-market activity improved following the reopening. SMM reported more active inquiries in Shanghai, with some downstream purchasers returning to the market at lower prices. Suppliers showed a willingness to maintain quotations, while actual transactions remained sensitive to brand, delivery conditions and immediate availability. The improvement is meaningful as a description of trading activity, but it does not establish a sustained recovery in industrial consumption — deferred purchasing during the closure and routine post-holiday restocking may both have contributed.

Source: SMM Silver Weekly Review, 8 October 2026. The indicators have different observation dates and are not directly additive.

China's silver social inventory declined by only two tonnes, approximately 0.05% of its preceding level, which is too small to suggest a substantial physical drawdown. SMM also noted that warrant inventories had not been updated during the holiday, while non-warrant spot inventories showed a modest reduction on reopening. The initial observation therefore offers limited evidence of how the broader physical market may develop over subsequent sessions.

ETF holdings showed little movement on a monthly basis. For the next reporting period, the more important question is whether improved spot activity translates into a sustained reduction in Chinese inventories.

Platinum and Palladium: The Sharpest Repricing

Platinum and palladium recorded the largest post-holiday futures declines among the four metals. At 11:30 on 8 October, GFEX platinum PT2612 stood at 406.05 yuan/g, down 14.15 yuan/g from its pre-holiday close of 420.20 yuan/g, while palladium PD2612 fell 20.30 yuan/g to 271.90 yuan/g.

Source: SMM Platinum and Palladium Weekly Review, 8 October 2026. Changes compare the morning-session observation with the pre-holiday close.

Palladium's percentage decline was approximately twice platinum's. SMM reported an intraday palladium low near 269.80 yuan/g, identifying it as the lowest level for the contract since listing, while platinum reached an intraday low of 400.55 yuan/g.

The physical market was more resilient than the futures adjustment alone suggested. SMM reported active buying on price declines, particularly from traders and downstream purchasers, while some suppliers maintained firm quotations because immediately available material remained relatively tight. That does not establish a structural shortage: SMM simultaneously described broader domestic platinum and palladium supply as comparatively ample. The distinction is between total material available within China and the volume accessible for prompt delivery through specific trading channels, and physical-market liquidity can tighten temporarily even when aggregate supply remains substantial.

Imports: Palladium Inflows Increase

Chinese customs figures reported by SMM show substantial year-on-year growth in palladium imports during August.

Source: Chinese customs figures reported in SMM's 8 October review. Import observations refer to August, not the October reopening.

Platinum imports declined slightly against July but remained above the corresponding month in 2025. Palladium imports increased both month on month and year on year, with the annual rise particularly pronounced. SMM reported that platinum and palladium import volumes during 2026 had generally remained elevated relative to comparable periods between 2023 and 2025, and identified restrictions affecting exports as a constraint on moving surplus material out of China.

Those conditions help explain why broader domestic supply can remain substantial while some buyers encounter limited immediately available spot material. Import volumes do not establish how much metal entered industrial consumption, investment holdings or inventory accumulation; they are evidence of physical inflows, not a direct measure of final demand.

Platinum-Group Compounds: Industrial Demand Diverges

The post-holiday adjustment extended into platinum- and palladium-based chemical compounds, although the wider industrial market showed considerable variation.

Source: SMM Platinum and Palladium Weekly Review, 8 October 2026.

Palladium chloride experienced the larger decline. Relative to early-September assessments, chloroplatinic acid was down approximately 7.5% from 180 yuan/g, while palladium chloride had fallen approximately 12.4% from 202 yuan/g. These are chemical-compound quotations, not refined platinum or palladium spot prices.

Elsewhere in the platinum-group compounds market, SMM reported improving demand for ruthenium, rhodium and iridium products, as refining, petrochemical and other downstream facilities resumed operations following maintenance, contributing to replenishment activity and stronger shipments. The divergence illustrates why platinum-group metals should not be treated as a single demand market: their industrial applications, supply chains and physical forms differ, and specialist compounds can experience improving demand even while headline platinum and palladium futures decline.

Deliverable Inventories: Platinum and Palladium Differ

SMM's review also reported a notable difference in COMEX warehouse inventories for platinum and palladium.

Source: SMM Platinum and Palladium Weekly Review, 8 October 2026. Percentages are indicative because the inventory inputs are rounded.

Platinum's registered inventory represented a substantially smaller share of total COMEX holdings than palladium's. Registered inventory meets the exchange's delivery requirements and carries the necessary warrant status; it is not interchangeable with total warehouse inventory or all physically available metal.

These figures provide international exchange context rather than a direct measurement of Chinese domestic supply. Their relevance lies in illustrating why headline inventory totals alone are insufficient to assess immediate delivery conditions.

What the Data Actually Show

Three developments stand out from China's first post-holiday trading session.

First, domestic prices adjusted lower across all four principal precious metals, with palladium experiencing the largest futures decline. The changes reflect an eight-calendar-day reporting interval and should not be interpreted as ordinary daily price movements.

Second, the physical-market response was less negative than the futures figures suggested. Silver spot inquiries improved, while platinum and palladium buyers became more active at lower prices. These observations indicate purchasing interest but do not yet establish sustained demand growth.

Third, inventories and imports show why immediate spot availability must be distinguished from broader supply. Silver social inventory was virtually unchanged in the latest observation, while elevated platinum and palladium imports point to substantial physical inflows despite reports of tight prompt-delivery conditions.

Key Risks

Holiday-period distortions. The reported price declines incorporate developments during China's seven-day market closure. They are not directly comparable with ordinary one-day changes.

Physical demand uncertainty. Improved post-holiday buying may reflect deferred transactions or short-term restocking rather than a sustained increase in industrial consumption.

Spot availability versus total supply. Tight immediately deliverable material can coexist with relatively ample broader domestic supply. Neither observation should be treated as a complete description of market conditions.

Contract and benchmark differences. SGE trading prices, SHFE and GFEX futures, SMM physical assessments and chemical-compound quotations measure different products. Their price differences cannot automatically be interpreted as physical premiums or arbitrage opportunities.

Inventory interpretation. Silver social inventories and exchange warehouse holdings use different definitions and reporting conventions. Holiday interruptions may also affect the timing of inventory updates.

The Bottom Line

China's precious-metals markets reopened lower across gold, silver, platinum and palladium, with the sharpest adjustment concentrated in palladium futures.

The physical-market evidence was more differentiated. Silver inventories were effectively unchanged, while spot inquiries improved as prices declined. Platinum and palladium buyers also responded to lower quotations, despite indications of comparatively ample broader domestic supply.

August import figures reinforce the importance of distinguishing physical inflows from immediate availability and final consumption. Meanwhile, improving demand for selected platinum-group compounds demonstrates that industrial conditions can diverge from headline futures movements. For the next edition, the principal indicators are whether silver inventories begin to decline, whether post-holiday physical buying persists, and whether platinum and palladium prices stabilise as normal trading resumes.

Data and source note: Chinese markets were closed from 1 to 7 October 2026, and reopening price changes compare 8 October with 30 September, an eight-calendar-day interval. Shanghai Gold Exchange values are official exchange observations; SMM physical-market assessments, inventories and commentary are identified separately. SMM's Gold 99 and 1# silver levels for 8 October are Bloodstone calculations from SMM's published 9 October assessments and reported daily changes, not direct observations. GFEX platinum and palladium figures refer to the morning session rather than full-day settlement prices. Customs data refer to August 2026. All Chinese precious-metals prices are presented in their reported yuan-denominated units; no foreign-exchange conversions or cross-market physical premiums are inferred.

Sources

• Shanghai Gold Exchange — daily reports
• SMM — Silver Weekly Review
• SMM — Platinum and Palladium Weekly Review
• SMM — Platinum-group compounds analysis

This document is published by Bloodstone Research for informational and institutional research purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice, an investment recommendation, an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument, commodity or security, or a forecast of future performance. Market conditions and data may change without notice. Readers should conduct their own analysis and, where appropriate, seek independent professional advice before making investment decisions. For institutional enquiries contact research@bloodstonecapital.co.uk.