US soybean harvesting advanced 21 percentage points in the week ended 11 October, halving its deficit against the normal seasonal pace. Corn harvesting also accelerated, but its national shortfall widened to six points, while winter-wheat planting remains behind schedule and cotton continues to be the exception.
TL;DR
- Corn: Harvest reached 33%, up ten points on the week but six behind the 39% five-year average. Maturity reached 91%, exactly matching normal.
- Soybeans: Harvest surged from 25% to 46%, narrowing the deficit against the five-year average from eight points to four.
- Iowa: Corn harvesting was only 14% complete against a 34% average; soybeans reached 31% against 59%.
- Winter wheat: Planting advanced 15 points to 51%, seven points behind normal. Emergence reached 27%, five points behind.
- Cotton: Harvest reached 31%, two points ahead of normal, although only 34% of the crop was rated good or excellent.
- Crop conditions: Corn improved to 56% good or excellent, while soybeans remained unchanged at 57%.
US Crop Dashboard
| Indicator | 4 Oct | 11 Oct | 5-year avg | Gap |
|---|
| Corn mature | 83% | 91% | 91% | 0pp |
| Corn harvested | 23% | 33% | 39% | −6pp |
| Soybeans dropping leaves | 85% | 92% | 94% | −2pp |
| Soybeans harvested | 25% | 46% | 50% | −4pp |
| Winter wheat planted | 36% | 51% | 58% | −7pp |
| Winter wheat emerged | 16% | 27% | 32% | −5pp |
| Cotton bolls opening | 74% | 82% | 83% | −1pp |
| Cotton harvested | 23% | 31% | 29% | +2pp |
Source: USDA NASS Crop Progress, released 13 October 2026 for the week ended 11 October. The five-year averages refer to the current reporting week, not the previous week's benchmark. USDA's 2021–25 averages incorporate imputed estimates for 2025 because corresponding reports were cancelled during the federal funding lapse.
Corn: Harvest Deficit Widens Despite Normal Maturity
US corn harvesting advanced ten percentage points to 33%, a substantial improvement from the previous week's 23%. Yet the five-year average for this stage of the season is 39%, leaving the national harvest six points behind normal, against a four-point deficit on 4 October. The benchmark advanced faster than the crop did.
The distinction between development and fieldwork is important. Corn maturity increased from 83% to 91%, exactly matching its five-year average, so national crop development is on schedule even though harvesting has not kept pace with its historical benchmark.
The geographic differences are pronounced. Iowa reached just 14% harvested against a 34% average, a 20-point deficit, while Michigan was 4% complete against 22%, South Dakota 15% against 31%, Nebraska 27% against 35% and Ohio 11% against 22%. Illinois provides the clearest contrast among major Corn Belt states, reaching 51% against a 44% average, while Indiana matched its normal pace at 34%. These differences demonstrate why the national shortfall should not be read as a uniform delay across producing regions.
Crop condition improved modestly, with USDA rating 56% of corn good or excellent against 54% the previous week, and the proportion rated poor or very poor declining from 18% to 17%.
The principal finding is that maturity and harvest completion continue to diverge. The national maturity deficit has disappeared while the harvest deficit has widened, establishing a difference between crop readiness and completed fieldwork. It does not, by itself, establish the cause of that difference or imply a reduction in final production.
Soybeans: A 21-Point Advance Halves the Seasonal Deficit
Soybeans recorded the strongest change in this week's report, with national harvesting increasing from 25% to 46% against a five-year average of 50%. The deficit has consequently narrowed from eight percentage points on 4 October to four points on 11 October, and unlike corn, soybean harvesting advanced faster than the historical seasonal benchmark during the reporting week.
Iowa made particularly rapid progress, increasing from 5% to 31% harvested, though its five-year average is 59%, leaving a 28-point deficit. Nebraska reached 26% against a 55% average and South Dakota 47% against 59%. Minnesota advanced sharply from 25% to 68%, remaining seven points behind normal, while Wisconsin moved from 11% to 54%, putting it ahead of its 47% average. Illinois reached 48% against 46%, North Dakota 60% against 57%, and Arkansas 81% against 58%.
The national crop was 92% through leaf drop against a five-year average of 94%. That two-point development deficit is unchanged on the week, but it is now much closer to the harvest deficit, which has fallen from eight points to four — the gap between crop readiness and completed harvesting has compressed from six points to two.
Soybean condition remained unchanged at 57% good or excellent, with 29% fair and 14% poor or very poor.
The significant development is not merely that harvesting accelerated, but that the national soybean harvest recovered relative to its historical schedule even while large deficits persisted in Iowa and Nebraska. The state-level distribution remains uneven; the national direction has improved materially.
Winter Wheat: Planting Improves, Establishment Still Lags
Winter-wheat planting advanced from 36% to 51%, a 15-point increase, against a five-year average of 58% for a seven-point deficit. That represents an improvement from the ten-point shortfall reported on 4 October, and as with soybeans, the latest weekly advance exceeded the increase in the historical benchmark.
Emergence reached 27%, up from 16%, against a five-year average of 32%, so the emergence deficit widened slightly from four points to five. Kansas, a major winter wheat producer, reached 44% planted against a 56% average, while Oklahoma was further behind at 28% against 48% and Ohio stood at 17% against 43%. Colorado reached 74% against 85% and Michigan 33% against 48%. By contrast, Washington was 92% planted against an 84% average and Oregon reached 64% against 50%.
The national planting and emergence figures should be read separately. Planting measures acreage seeded while emergence measures the subsequent establishment of the crop, and a planting delay does not automatically imply poor emergence or a loss of production potential. The latest report shows meaningful progress in seeding but a continuing shortfall in establishment, and the next USDA releases will indicate whether emergence recovers as recently planted acreage develops.
Cotton: Harvest Ahead, Condition Remains Weak
Cotton remains the exception to the broader pattern of below-average field progress. National harvesting increased from 23% to 31%, two points ahead of the five-year average of 29%, while boll opening reached 82%, only one point below its historical benchmark.
Texas was 38% harvested against a 34% average, Mississippi reached 57% against 46%, Arkansas 45% against 37% and Tennessee 35% against 20%. The pace was less favourable in Oklahoma, where only 1% had been harvested against an 11% average, while Georgia matched its historical pace at 16%.
Cotton condition remains materially weaker than that of corn or soybeans. USDA rated 34% good or excellent, up one point on the week, while 36% was poor or very poor — and the national figures conceal substantial regional weakness, with Texas reporting 52% of its cotton in poor or very poor condition and Oklahoma 67%.
Cotton therefore presents two different signals: harvesting is ahead of its historical schedule, but a substantial proportion of the remaining crop is in weak condition. Harvest completion does not measure lint quality or realised yield. The USDA progress data establish how much acreage has been harvested and how the standing crop is assessed, not the final quantity or grade of production.
The Physical Picture Has Become More Uneven
The defining feature of the 13 October release is the divergence between crops rather than a single national harvest trend. Soybeans recovered sharply against their historical benchmark, reducing the national deficit by four points, and winter-wheat planting also improved relative to normal, narrowing its deficit by three points.
Corn moved in the opposite direction. Despite a ten-point weekly advance, its deficit widened from four to six points because the historical harvest pace accelerated faster, while cotton continued to run ahead of average.
Crop development adds another distinction. Corn maturity has reached its normal seasonal level and soybean leaf drop is only two points behind, so the remaining harvest gaps are larger than the respective national development gaps. The USDA data establish the difference between crop readiness and harvest completion; they do not establish whether weather, field access, machinery availability or producer decisions account for the remaining shortfalls.
The report also provides no direct measurement of final yields from these progress percentages. A delayed harvest may affect the timing of physical supply, but it should not automatically be treated as lost production.
Outlook
The next report will test whether the soybean recovery continues and whether corn can begin reducing its seasonal deficit. For soybeans the national picture has improved significantly, and the remaining question is whether Iowa and Nebraska can close their substantial state-level gaps as harvesting progresses.
Corn requires a different assessment. With maturity at its five-year average, the six-point harvest deficit is increasingly a question of completed acreage rather than crop development, and further weekly gains will need to exceed the normal seasonal advance to narrow that shortfall.
Winter wheat has made progress, but planting and emergence remain behind, and the relationship between the two measures will become more important as recently seeded acreage establishes. Cotton harvesting is already ahead of normal, so the principal uncertainty is less about national harvest timing than the weak condition ratings in important producing states.
These are monitoring questions rather than production forecasts. USDA's Crop Progress report does not provide sufficient evidence to translate the remaining timing differences into revised output estimates.
Key Risks
Historical comparison. USDA's 2021–25 averages include imputed 2025 estimates because corresponding Crop Progress reports were cancelled during the federal funding lapse. They remain the official benchmarks but are not based on five independently observed weekly readings.
Harvest recovery. Corn and soybean deficits can narrow rapidly during favourable fieldwork conditions. Current gaps should not be extrapolated mechanically.
Regional concentration. Iowa's substantial delays are economically relevant, but national figures are weighted across producing states, and individual state percentages should not be treated as equal contributions to national progress.
Crop readiness versus harvest. Maturity and leaf drop are development indicators, not direct measurements of field accessibility or final yield.
Winter-wheat establishment. Delayed planting and emergence do not establish impaired production. Subsequent crop development is necessary to assess the significance of the timing deficit.
Cotton condition. Weak condition ratings indicate crop stress but do not directly quantify final lint output or quality.
Intelligence Monitoring Points
- Corn: whether the six-point harvest deficit begins to narrow now that maturity has reached its normal seasonal level.
- Soybeans: whether the national four-point deficit continues to contract, particularly through further progress in Iowa and Nebraska.
- State dispersion: the difference between advanced harvesting in Illinois and slower progress in parts of the western and northern Corn Belt.
- Winter wheat: whether planting and emergence deficits converge as recently seeded acreage establishes.
- Cotton: harvest progress in Texas and Oklahoma alongside persistently weak condition ratings.
- Next release: USDA Crop Progress, scheduled for 19 October 2026.
FAQ
Is the US corn harvest behind schedule? Yes. USDA reported 33% harvested as of 11 October, compared with a five-year average of 39%. The six-point deficit is wider than the four-point shortfall recorded a week earlier.
Has the soybean harvest caught up? Not completely. Soybeans reached 46% harvested against a 50% average, though the deficit narrowed from eight points to four after a 21-point weekly advance.
Why is Iowa important? Iowa is a major corn and soybean producing state. Its corn harvest was 14% complete against a 34% average, while soybeans were 31% harvested against 59% normally. These are among the largest deficits in the major producing states.
Is winter-wheat planting improving? Yes. Planting advanced 15 points to 51%, reducing its deficit against normal from ten points to seven. Emergence remains five points behind its five-year average.
Is cotton harvesting ahead of schedule? Yes. National cotton harvesting reached 31%, compared with a 29% five-year average. However, only 34% of the crop was rated good or excellent.
Does a delayed harvest mean lower production? Not necessarily. Crop Progress measures the share of acreage reaching particular development stages or harvested. It does not directly measure final yield or production.
Data and source note: All progress and condition figures are from USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service, Crop Progress, released 13 October 2026 for the week ended 11 October. Previous-week observations refer to 4 October 2026. Five-year averages refer to the week ended 11 October and should not be compared directly with the preceding week's averages without adjusting for the different seasonal reference dates. USDA notes that Crop Progress reports for the corresponding October–November 2025 period were cancelled because of the federal funding lapse, so its published 2021–25 averages incorporate imputed estimates for 2025. National crop-progress figures cover USDA's specified reporting states, representing the great majority of relevant US acreage. Crop-condition ratings are observational estimates and are distinct from USDA's production forecasts.
Sources
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