The USDA raised projected US corn ending stocks by 282 million bushels to 1.849 billion, combining a larger harvest with substantially higher beginning inventories. December corn briefly traded limit down, while soybean and wheat balances also loosened and soybean-oil stocks tightened.
TL;DR
- Corn: Projected ending stocks increased 282 million bushels, or 18.0%, to 1.849 billion.
- Production: Corn yield rose to 181.2 bushels per acre, lifting projected output to 16.034 billion bushels.
- Carry-in: Higher beginning stocks contributed 173 million bushels to the 407-million-bushel increase in total corn supply.
- Market reaction: December corn briefly traded limit down and closed 20½ cents lower, approximately 4.1%, on 9 October.
- Soybeans and wheat: Soybean carryout increased five million bushels to 315 million; wheat stocks rose 23 million to 740 million.
- Cotton and products: Cotton ending stocks increased 200,000 bales, while soybean-oil carryout declined 80 million pounds.
The October Supply Revision
The US Department of Agriculture's October World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, released on 9 October, delivered a substantial upward revision to American corn availability. The change was larger than the increase in production alone because USDA also incorporated higher beginning inventories following the September Grain Stocks report.
Projected corn supply increased by 407 million bushels from September, while total use rose by 125 million. The remaining 282 million bushels flowed into ending stocks, taking projected carryout to 1.849 billion and the stocks-to-use ratio to 11.3%.
The result exceeded pre-report expectations. A Dow Jones survey cited by DTN placed average expected ending stocks at approximately 1.677 billion bushels, so USDA's published estimate was 172 million bushels above that benchmark, and its 181.2-bushel yield forecast also exceeded surveyed expectations. Corn was the principal shock, but the October report also revised soybean production, wheat exports, cotton yields and soybean-product inventories, and the implications differed considerably between markets.
The October WASDE Data Board
US projections for 2026/27
| Indicator | September | October | Change |
|---|
| Corn yield, bu/acre | 178.5 | 181.2 | +2.7 |
| Corn production, million bu | 15,800 | 16,034 | +234 |
| Corn ending stocks, million bu | 1,567 | 1,849 | +282 |
| Soybean yield, bu/acre | 52.8 | 53.1 | +0.3 |
| Soybean production, million bu | 4,535 | 4,562 | +27 |
| Soybean ending stocks, million bu | 310 | 315 | +5 |
| Wheat ending stocks, million bu | 717 | 740 | +23 |
| Cotton production, million bales | 13.20 | 13.44 | +0.24 |
| Cotton ending stocks, million bales | 3.60 | 3.80 | +0.20 |
| Soybean-oil ending stocks, million lb | 1,877 | 1,797 | −80 |
| US sugar ending stocks, thousand short tons | 1,697 | 1,865 | +168 |
Source: USDA WASDE-676, October 2026. Figures compare September and October projections for the same marketing year. Sugar is measured in short tons, raw value. Full balance sheets for cotton, soybean oil and sugar appear in USDA's published tables; this analysis gives their component revisions in the sections below.
Corn: A Larger Harvest and More Carry-In
USDA raised projected corn yield from 178.5 to 181.2 bushels per harvested acre, with harvested area unchanged at 88.5 million acres. Production increased by 234 million bushels to 16.034 billion. Beginning stocks provided a second substantial revision, rising from 1.922 billion to 2.095 billion bushels, which added 173 million bushels to the new marketing year's availability and accounted for 42.5% of the total supply increase.
| US corn, million bushels | September | October | Change |
|---|
| Beginning stocks | 1,922 | 2,095 | +173 |
| Production | 15,800 | 16,034 | +234 |
| Imports | 25 | 25 | — |
| Total supply | 17,747 | 18,154 | +407 |
| Feed and residual | 5,950 | 6,000 | +50 |
| Food, seed and industrial | 6,955 | 7,005 | +50 |
| Exports | 3,275 | 3,300 | +25 |
| Total use | 16,180 | 16,305 | +125 |
| Ending stocks | 1,567 | 1,849 | +282 |
Source: USDA WASDE-676, US Feed Grain and Corn Supply and Use. Ethanol is included within food, seed and industrial use.
Demand revisions partly absorbed the additional supply. USDA increased feed and residual use by 50 million bushels, food, seed and industrial use by another 50 million, and exports by 25 million. Within industrial demand, projected corn use for ethanol rose from 5.600 billion to 5.650 billion bushels.
Even after these adjustments, ending stocks increased 18.0%, raising the stocks-to-use ratio from 9.7% to 11.3%. That places the new-crop projection between the past two marketing years, below the estimated 12.7% for 2025/26 and above the 10.3% recorded in 2024/25. October's revision is therefore a substantial loosening against September's forecast rather than a move to an unusual level by recent standards.
USDA also reduced the projected season-average farm price from $4.80 to $4.70 per bushel. The distinction between higher beginning stocks and additional production remains important: a weaker harvest outcome could reduce the projected crop, but it would not automatically reverse the higher carry-in already incorporated into the balance.
Soybeans: Higher Output, Limited Carryout Change
Soybean production increased by 27 million bushels to 4.562 billion after USDA raised projected yield from 52.8 to 53.1 bushels per acre. However, beginning stocks fell by 10 million bushels, limiting the increase in total supply to 17 million. USDA also raised projected exports by 10 million bushels to 1.695 billion, while crush remained unchanged at 2.780 billion, so total use increased by 12 million bushels and ending stocks finished just five million higher at 315 million.
| US soybeans, million bushels | September | October | Change |
|---|
| Beginning stocks | 325 | 315 | −10 |
| Production | 4,535 | 4,562 | +27 |
| Imports | 25 | 25 | — |
| Total supply | 4,885 | 4,902 | +17 |
| Crush | 2,780 | 2,780 | — |
| Exports | 1,685 | 1,695 | +10 |
| Seed | 73 | 73 | — |
| Residual | 38 | 39 | +1 |
| Total use | 4,575 | 4,587 | +12 |
| Ending stocks | 310 | 315 | +5 |
Source: USDA WASDE-676. Individual rounded use components may differ from the published total.
The soybean carryout increase was only 1.6%, compared with corn's 18.0%, and USDA's season-average soybean farm-price projection remained unchanged at $12.00 per bushel. The comparison demonstrates why higher production does not necessarily translate into an equivalent increase in inventories: lower carry-in and stronger projected exports absorbed most of the soybean crop revision.
Wheat: Export Reduction Drives Higher Stocks
USDA increased projected US wheat ending stocks by 23 million bushels to 740 million. The principal demand-side adjustment was a reduction in exports from 775 million to 750 million bushels, alongside modest increases in production, imports and domestic use.
| US wheat, million bushels | September | October | Change |
|---|
| Beginning stocks | 920 | 920 | — |
| Production | 1,531 | 1,534 | +3 |
| Imports | 140 | 145 | +5 |
| Total supply | 2,591 | 2,599 | +8 |
| Domestic use | 1,099 | 1,109 | +10 |
| Exports | 775 | 750 | −25 |
| Total use | 1,874 | 1,859 | −15 |
| Ending stocks | 717 | 740 | +23 |
Source: USDA WASDE-676. Domestic use includes food, seed, and feed and residual consumption.
The increase in wheat carryout therefore reflects weaker projected export demand more than additional domestic production, and USDA reduced its projected season-average farm price from $6.40 to $6.30 per bushel. The global picture was different: world wheat ending stocks declined marginally from 276.29 million to 276.04 million tonnes, indicating that the looser US balance was not accompanied by a corresponding increase in global inventories.
Cotton: Higher Yield Raises Carryout
USDA increased projected US cotton production from 13.20 million to 13.44 million bales, raising yield from 776 to 790 pounds per harvested acre. Harvested area remained at approximately 8.16 million acres, while projected domestic use and exports were unchanged at 1.50 million and 12.30 million bales respectively.
Ending stocks increased from 3.60 million to 3.80 million bales, a rise of 5.6%. The smaller change in carryout relative to the production increase reflects USDA's unaccounted adjustment, which changed from −0.04 million bales to zero. That component is part of the published cotton balance and explains why simple subtraction of the headline use figures does not reproduce the September ending-stock estimate.
USDA reduced its projected season-average cotton price from 78 to 77 cents per pound. The revision represents additional expected supply without a corresponding increase in projected demand, although the final production outcome remains dependent on subsequent harvest information.
Soybean Oil and Meal: Different Inventory Outcomes
Soybean-oil ending stocks declined by 80 million pounds, from 1.877 billion to 1.797 billion, despite the increase in projected soybean production. USDA reduced beginning stocks by 180 million pounds and raised imports by 100 million, leaving total supply 80 million pounds lower. Projected soybean-oil production, domestic disappearance and exports were unchanged, so the full reduction in available supply passed through to ending stocks and produced a tighter balance than September's forecast.
Soybean meal followed a different path. USDA increased projected imports by 100,000 short tons and domestic disappearance by the same amount, leaving ending stocks unchanged at 450,000 short tons. The contrast illustrates why the underlying soybean crop forecast cannot substitute for separate analysis of oil and meal, since their inventories respond to product-specific beginning stocks, trade and consumption assumptions.
Sugar: Imports Complete the Balance
USDA raised projected US sugar ending stocks by 168,000 short tons, raw value, from 1.697 million to 1.865 million, lifting the stocks-to-use ratio from 13.5% to 14.9%.
The component revisions reconcile directly. Beginning stocks increased by 198,000 short tons, production declined by 71,000 and imports fell by 8,000, so total supply rose by 119,000 short tons. With projected use reduced by 49,000, ending stocks increased by 168,000.
This is a domestic US sugar balance, not a direct measure of global raw-sugar availability. ICE Sugar No. 11 fundamentals depend on international production and trade conditions beyond the US balance sheet.
Market Reaction: Corn Briefly Hits Its Downside Limit
The market reaction was immediate and concentrated in corn. On Friday 9 October, December corn futures briefly traded limit down after USDA's yield and stocks estimates exceeded expectations. The contract recovered part of its intraday decline but closed at $4.7975 per bushel, down 20½ cents, or approximately 4.1%, from the preceding settlement.
December Chicago wheat closed at $6.71 per bushel, down 12¼ cents, or approximately 1.8%. Reports of soybean weakness on 9 October described the post-WASDE intraday sell-off; the November contract recovered through the session to settle 4½ cents higher at $12.92. These closing figures are drawn from contemporaneous market reports rather than from independently retrieved CME Group settlement records, which remain the authoritative series.
The corn move was especially significant because USDA's 1.849-billion-bushel ending-stock projection exceeded the cited pre-report average by approximately 172 million bushels. The market was responding not merely to a revision from September but to a substantially larger supply outlook than traders had anticipated, and the recovery from the intraday low did not reverse that reassessment.
Key Risks
Harvest revisions. October production forecasts remain subject to subsequent field data, acreage adjustments and final harvest estimates.
Demand assumptions. Corn feed use, ethanol consumption and exports could change as prices and domestic or international demand develop.
Global trade. Wheat and soybean export projections depend on overseas demand, competitor production and currency conditions.
Balance-sheet timing. Higher beginning stocks represent a revision to the incoming inventory position, not additional production from the current harvest.
Price interpretation. Intraday futures lows and closing changes describe different measurement windows and should not be presented interchangeably.
Intelligence Monitoring Points
- Corn: whether the 181.2-bushel yield estimate holds and whether projected demand absorbs more of the additional supply.
- Soybeans: whether the modest 315-million-bushel carryout changes as export and harvest information develops.
- Wheat: whether the lower US export forecast is sustained.
- Cotton: whether the higher production estimate survives subsequent revisions.
- Soybean oil: whether lower beginning inventories continue to constrain projected carryout.
- Sugar: whether the increase in US ending stocks persists in November.
FAQ
What is WASDE? The World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates is USDA's monthly assessment of agricultural production, consumption, trade and inventories in the United States and internationally.
Why did corn ending stocks increase by more than production? USDA raised production by 234 million bushels and beginning stocks by 173 million. The resulting 407-million-bushel increase in supply exceeded the 125-million-bushel increase in projected use, leaving ending stocks 282 million higher.
Are projected ending stocks actual inventories? No. The 2026/27 ending-stock figures estimate inventories expected to remain at the end of the marketing year. They are subject to revision as supply and use estimates change.
When is the next WASDE? USDA has scheduled the next report for 10 November 2026.
The Bottom Line
October's WASDE materially loosened the projected US corn balance. Higher beginning inventories and a larger harvest increased total supply by 407 million bushels, while additional demand absorbed only 125 million. Ending stocks consequently rose 282 million bushels to 1.849 billion, substantially above market expectations.
The resulting futures sell-off reflected the scale of that surprise. December corn briefly traded limit down before recovering part of its losses, but still finished approximately 4.1% lower.
Elsewhere the revisions were more measured. Soybean carryout increased only slightly, wheat stocks rose primarily because of weaker exports, and cotton production added to expected inventories, while soybean oil moved in the opposite direction as reduced beginning stocks tightened its projected balance. The November WASDE will establish whether October's larger corn surplus persists as harvest information develops and whether the more limited revisions elsewhere become materially larger.
Data and source note: USDA estimates are drawn from World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, WASDE-676, 9 October 2026. September and October projections refer to the 2026/27 marketing year. Grain quantities are expressed in million bushels unless stated otherwise; cotton in million 480-pound bales; soybean oil in million pounds; and sugar in thousand short tons, raw value. Historical corn stocks-to-use ratios are calculated from USDA's published ending stocks and total use for the relevant marketing years. Some published balances contain rounding differences or separately reported residual and unaccounted components. Futures closing prices refer to 9 October 2026 and are sourced to contemporaneous market reports rather than independently retrieved historical CME Group settlement records.
Sources
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