The latest CFTC data show a striking divergence across agricultural markets. Funds added aggressively to bullish positions in corn, soybeans and especially sugar during the week to August 18, while remaining net short Chicago wheat and lean hogs. The largest change came in sugar, where managed money's net position improved by roughly 95,000 contracts in a single week. Corn and soybeans also attracted substantial buying. With the USDA's latest crop-condition data due next, positioning is becoming increasingly important: several agricultural markets now enter the new week with speculative exposure already leaning heavily in one direction.
TL;DR
- Sugar: managed money net long ~138,600 contracts after an extraordinary ~95,000-contract weekly bullish swing.
- Corn: net long ~181,700, increasing by ~55,800 contracts in a week.
- Soybeans: net long ~151,800 after a ~42,700-contract increase.
- Cotton: funds remain strongly net long at ~72,700 contracts.
- Wheat: managed money remains net short ~25,300 contracts despite covering ~8,100 of that short.
- Lean hogs: funds are net short ~29,000 and became more bearish during the week.
- The next question is whether Monday's USDA crop data validate increasingly bullish grain positioning or challenge it.
The CFTC report was released on Friday, August 21 and reflects futures positions held as of Tuesday, August 18. CFTC data therefore provide a positioning snapshot rather than a real-time indication of where funds sit today.
The Positioning Board
| Market | Managed Money Long | Managed Money Short | Net Position | Weekly Net Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sugar No. 11 | 254,297 | 115,684 | +138,613 | +95,029 |
| Corn | 321,475 | 139,783 | +181,692 | +55,817 |
| Soybeans | 197,446 | 45,664 | +151,782 | +42,673 |
| Cotton No. 2 | 92,005 | 19,333 | +72,672 | +5,892 |
| Live Cattle | 81,870 | 18,903 | +62,967 | −2,982 |
| Coffee C | 41,638 | 10,026 | +31,612 | −821 |
| Cocoa | 21,408 | 30,779 | −9,371 | −2,704 |
| Chicago SRW Wheat | 78,911 | 104,239 | −25,328 | +8,072 |
| Lean Hogs | 59,731 | 88,728 | −28,997 | −4,634 |
Source: CFTC Disaggregated Commitments of Traders, futures only, positions as of August 18, 2026. Weekly net change calculated by Bloodstone Research from CFTC long/short changes.
Grains: Funds Turn More Bullish
The clearest grain signal is corn.
Managed money held 321,475 long contracts against 139,783 shorts on August 18, leaving funds net long approximately 181,700 contracts.
More important than the absolute position is how quickly it changed. Funds added 8,646 longs while cutting 47,171 shorts during the week, producing a roughly 55,800-contract bullish shift in the net position.
Soybeans show an even more concentrated bullish position.
Managed-money longs reached 197,446 contracts against only 45,664 shorts, producing a net long of approximately 151,800 contracts. The net position increased by roughly 42,700 contracts during the week as funds simultaneously added longs and covered shorts.
Wheat is the outlier.
Managed money remained net short Chicago SRW wheat by approximately 25,300 contracts. Funds did, however, reduce that bearish exposure by roughly 8,100 contracts during the week, principally through short covering.
That creates an important setup for the new week.
Funds are increasingly bullish corn and soybeans while remaining bearish wheat. Monday's USDA crop data therefore matter not simply because of what they say about crop conditions, but because of the positions already sitting behind those markets.
Softs: Sugar Is the Standout
The most dramatic movement anywhere in the agricultural CFTC report was sugar.
Managed money held 254,297 longs against 115,684 shorts, producing a net long of approximately 138,600 contracts.
During a single week, funds added 39,471 long contracts while covering 55,558 shorts.
The resulting change in net positioning was approximately +95,000 contracts.
That is not a marginal adjustment. It represents a substantial change in speculative conviction and makes sugar one of the most important positioning stories to monitor.
Cotton remains another heavily bullish market. Funds held a net long of roughly 72,700 contracts, with the position increasing by around 5,900 during the week.
Coffee presents a different picture.
Despite the debate around Brazil's potentially record crop and exceptionally low certified Arabica inventories, managed money remains net long approximately 31,600 contracts. The position changed little during the week, declining by only around 800 contracts.
That is useful context for the current coffee market: funds have not abandoned the bullish side, but neither were they aggressively adding exposure ahead of Friday's Arabica decline.
Cocoa, by contrast, has moved modestly bearish, with managed money net short roughly 9,400 contracts and adding around 2,700 contracts to that bearish position during the week.
Livestock: Cattle and Hogs Diverge
Livestock positioning is almost a mirror image between cattle and hogs.
Managed money remains strongly net long live cattle, holding 81,870 longs against 18,903 shorts — a net position of approximately +63,000 contracts.
But conviction weakened slightly during the week. Funds reduced longs and increased shorts, cutting the net position by approximately 3,000 contracts.
That matters against the unusually tight US cattle supply picture.
The structural cattle story remains supportive, but speculative positioning is already substantially bullish. Further fundamental tightening therefore arrives in a market where funds are far from neutral.
Lean hogs sit at the opposite end.
Managed money held 59,731 longs against 88,728 shorts, leaving funds net short approximately 29,000 contracts.
That bearish position increased by roughly 4,600 contracts during the week.
The contrast is useful: funds are effectively positioned for continued relative strength in cattle against hogs.
Bloodstone View
The headline from Friday's CFTC report is not simply that agricultural funds became more bullish.
It is where they became bullish and how quickly.
Sugar's approximately 95,000-contract weekly swing is exceptional. Corn's 55,800-contract move and soybeans' 42,700-contract increase are substantial in their own right.
That creates opportunity, but it also creates vulnerability.
When speculative money moves rapidly in one direction, subsequent fundamental data have a greater capacity to produce an asymmetric market response. Good news that confirms an already crowded bullish position may generate less incremental buying than expected. A fundamental surprise in the opposite direction can force a much sharper reversal.
That is why the timing of this report is particularly interesting.
The CFTC has shown us how funds were positioned heading into the week.
The USDA's next Crop Progress report will show us whether conditions in the field justify that positioning.
Corn and soybeans are therefore the markets to watch most closely for a positioning-versus-fundamentals collision.
Sugar deserves separate treatment. The magnitude of the weekly move means the market now needs a fundamental catalyst strong enough to justify an enormous change in speculative exposure.
Coffee provides almost the reverse setup: funds remain moderately bullish, but positioning has been relatively stable even as Brazil's crop outlook becomes increasingly bearish and physical Arabica inventories remain unusually tight.
And wheat may offer the most interesting contrarian structure. Funds remain net short while reducing that position. Any deterioration in crop or export expectations could therefore meet a market that still has substantial speculative shorts available to cover.
What We're Watching
Corn and soybeans: Monday's USDA Crop Progress numbers are the immediate test. A deterioration in crop condition would validate some of the recent fund buying; stable or improving conditions could expose increasingly crowded longs.
Sugar: A ~95,000-contract bullish swing in one week demands fundamental confirmation. Price behaviour following such a large repositioning becomes important in determining whether funds are establishing a durable position or chasing momentum.
Wheat: Funds remain net short despite covering positions. Any unexpected supply or export disruption could therefore have an amplified effect through further short covering.
Coffee: The question is whether Brazil's record-crop expectations eventually persuade funds to reduce a still-positive net position, particularly if ICE-certified stocks begin rebuilding.
Cattle versus hogs: The positioning divergence is substantial — funds strongly long cattle and short hogs. Changes in US livestock supply or demand therefore have the potential to unwind an increasingly clear relative-value position.
The Bottom Line
Friday's CFTC report leaves agricultural markets entering the new week with unusually differentiated speculative positioning.
Funds are strongly long corn, soybeans, sugar, cotton and cattle.
They remain moderately long coffee.
They are short wheat, cocoa and lean hogs.
But the most important information is the speed of change.
Sugar, corn and soybeans attracted enormous shifts in speculative exposure in just one reporting week.
Now the fundamentals get their turn.
The next USDA crop report will tell us whether the fields are moving in the same direction as the funds — or whether one side of that trade has moved too far, too quickly.
Data: CFTC Commitments of Traders — Agriculture
Bloodstone Research. This document is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.