Chinese gold prices rose during the first full trading week after the National Day holiday, while silver fell 6.64% and the platinum-group metals extended their declines. New World Gold Council figures showed record domestic gold ETF holdings and the largest monthly central bank purchase since 2023, against wholesale demand still running well below historical norms.
TL;DR
- Gold: Shanghai Gold Exchange Au99.99 closed at 901.57 yuan/g on 16 October, up 1.07% from 892.00 yuan/g on 8 October — the only one of the four metals to gain.
- Gold demand: The People's Bank of China added 23 tonnes in September, its largest monthly purchase since October 2023, taking reported holdings to 2,410 tonnes. Chinese gold ETF holdings reached a record 304 tonnes.
- Silver: SMM's 1# silver assessment fell to 13,660 yuan/kg on 15 October, down 6.64% from 8 October and the sharpest decline in the complex.
- Silver inventories: Chinese social inventory fell 25 tonnes to 3,909 tonnes between 8 and 15 October, the first measurable draw since the reopening.
- Platinum: GFEX PT2612 closed at 391.40 yuan/g on 15 October, down 3.61% since 8 October and 6.85% since the pre-holiday close.
- Palladium: GFEX PD2612 closed at 263.45 yuan/g, down 3.11% since 8 October and 9.84% since the pre-holiday close, with a second successive contract low.
Gold Separates From the Rest of the Complex
Chinese precious-metals prices diverged during the week to 15 and 16 October as stronger US inflation data lifted expectations of further monetary tightening. Gold strengthened in yuan terms while silver, platinum and palladium all declined, breaking the uniform weakness recorded when domestic markets reopened on 8 October. The divergence is the week's principal development, and it is visible only when each metal is measured against the same post-holiday base.
That base matters because the platinum and palladium figures circulating most widely are cumulative. Measured against the 30 September pre-holiday close, palladium is down 9.84% and platinum 6.85%, but those figures incorporate the reopening adjustments of 6.95% and 3.37% that occurred on 8 October and were reported in the previous edition. On a comparable post-reopening basis, silver was by some distance the weakest of the four, falling roughly twice as far as either platinum-group metal.
Physical-market activity remained uneven throughout. SMM reported buying interest emerging as prices fell across silver, platinum and palladium, but completed transactions were constrained by cautious downstream demand and a general reluctance to commit before prices settled. Separately, newly published September figures from the World Gold Council show Chinese gold investment and official-sector demand strengthening even as jewellery-led wholesale consumption stayed weak.
The Precious Metals Board
| Indicator | 8 October | Latest | Since 8 Oct | Since 30 Sep |
|---|
| SGE Au99.99 gold | 892.00 yuan/g | 901.57 yuan/g (16 Oct) | +1.07% | — |
| SGE Au(T+D) gold | 891.75 yuan/g | 900.90 yuan/g (16 Oct) | +1.03% | — |
| SMM 1# silver | 14,631.50 yuan/kg | 13,660 yuan/kg (15 Oct) | −6.64% | — |
| GFEX platinum PT2612 | 406.05 yuan/g | 391.40 yuan/g (15 Oct) | −3.61% | −6.85% |
| GFEX palladium PD2612 | 271.90 yuan/g | 263.45 yuan/g (15 Oct) | −3.11% | −9.84% |
Sources: Shanghai Gold Exchange daily trading report, 16 October 2026, and SMM weekly reviews, 15 October 2026. The 8 October SMM 1# silver level is a Bloodstone calculation from SMM's published 9 October assessment and reported daily change, as set out in the previous edition. GFEX figures are morning-session observations rather than full-day settlements. Gold and silver observation dates differ by one session; no pre-holiday comparison is shown for gold or silver because the relevant series were not quoted on a consistent basis across the closure.
| Inventory and holdings | Latest | Change | Period |
|---|
| China silver social inventory | 3,909t | −25t | vs 8 October |
| SGE silver warrant inventory | 865.59t | −12.03t | vs 8 October |
| SHFE silver warrant inventory | 1,460.96t | −29.90t | vs 30 September |
| Chinese gold ETF holdings | 304t | +11t | September |
| PBoC reported gold holdings | 2,410t | +23t | September |
Sources: SMM and the World Gold Council. Warrant inventories were not updated during the market closure, so the SHFE comparison runs from 30 September. Warrant categories form part of the wider inventory picture and are not additive to the social inventory total.
Gold: Domestic Prices Rise as Investment Demand Strengthens
The Shanghai Gold Exchange's Au99.99 contract closed at 901.57 yuan/g on 16 October, up 1.07% from the 892.00 yuan/g recorded on 8 October. The contract opened at 893.99 yuan/g and traded between 893.00 and 902.00 yuan/g, with the SGE reporting a daily gain of 8.61 yuan/g, or 0.96%, against 15 October. Au(T+D), the exchange's deferred-settlement contract, closed at 900.90 yuan/g, up 1.03% over the same period. The SGE's separate Shanghai Gold afternoon benchmark stood at 899.52 yuan/g, but that is a different series from the transaction prices used in this report and is not used to calculate the weekly return.
The World Gold Council's 15 October China market update provides a separate picture of investment demand. Chinese gold ETFs attracted 11 tonnes in September, a third consecutive monthly increase that took holdings to a record 304 tonnes. Net inflows reached 11 billion yuan, although total assets under management declined 2% during the month to 276 billion yuan as international gold prices weakened. Across the third quarter, ETF inflows totalled 27 billion yuan and holdings rose by 27 tonnes.
Official-sector buying accelerated alongside. The People's Bank of China reported a 23-tonne addition in September, its largest monthly purchase since October 2023, bringing reported reserves to 2,410 tonnes. Sixty-three tonnes were acquired during the third quarter and 103 tonnes year to date, and the World Gold Council identifies September as the twenty-third consecutive monthly increase.
Physical wholesale demand was considerably less convincing. Shanghai Gold Exchange withdrawals reached 92 tonnes in September, up 48% month on month as jewellers and other buyers replenished ahead of the holiday, but still 22% below September 2025. Third-quarter withdrawals totalled 234 tonnes, down 21% year on year and 44% below the ten-year quarterly average. The September data therefore separate strong financial and official demand from a wholesale market that has not recovered to historical levels.
Silver: The Week's Sharpest Decline, With Inventories Finally Moving
Silver recorded the largest decline in the complex. SMM's 1# silver assessment fell to 13,660 yuan/kg on Thursday 15 October, a daily decline of 5.34% and a fall of 6.64% from the 14,631.50 yuan/kg level calculated for 8 October. SMM separately described the week's decline as approximately 7% on its own weekly reporting basis, which uses different start and end points from the 8 October comparison used here. The assessment had recovered above 14,500 yuan/kg earlier in the period before renewed selling followed the stronger US inflation data.
Physical trading did not strengthen consistently as prices fell. SMM reported that buyers were reluctant to purchase during the early-week recovery, having already accumulated material ahead of the holiday, and that lower prices subsequently generated additional inquiries without producing the expected volume of completed transactions as buyers waited for clearer direction. Shanghai spot offers generally traded at discounts of 30 to 55 yuan/kg against the SHFE December 2026 futures contract.
The more substantive development was in inventories. Chinese silver social inventory stood at 3,909 tonnes on 15 October against 3,934 tonnes on 8 October, a draw of 25 tonnes. Within the latest survey, Shanghai Gold Exchange warrant stocks stood at 865.59 tonnes, down 12.03 tonnes from 8 October, while Shanghai Futures Exchange warrants totalled 1,460.96 tonnes, down 29.90 tonnes against 30 September — warrant inventories having gone unupdated during the closure. These warrant categories form part of the wider inventory picture and should not be added to the 3,909-tonne social total as separate additional stocks.
The withdrawal remains small in proportional terms, at roughly 0.6% of the social total, but it is a change from the near-flat reading reported immediately after the holiday, when inventories moved just two tonnes. SMM also reported Hong Kong silver ingot quotations at discounts of $0.10 to $0.15/oz against the LBMA reference, with processing-trade exports concentrated in that range. That discount is evidence of prevailing quoted trade terms rather than proof of a sustained expansion in export volumes.
Platinum and Palladium: Headline Losses Largely Inherited From the Reopening
The Guangzhou Futures Exchange's most-traded platinum contract, PT2612, closed at 391.40 yuan/g on 15 October, down 3.61% from its 8 October level and 6.85% from the pre-holiday close. Palladium's PD2612 contract closed at 263.45 yuan/g, down 3.11% since 8 October and 9.84% since the pre-holiday close. The cumulative figures include the reopening adjustment and should not be read as ordinary five-day returns; on the comparable post-reopening week, palladium was the mildest of the three decliners rather than the worst.
Both metals initially recovered some ground after reopening before weakening again as US inflation data lifted interest-rate expectations. Palladium recorded an intraday low of 261.85 yuan/g on 15 October, which SMM identified as a new low since the contract's listing — the second such low in eight days, superseding the 269.80 yuan/g reported on 8 October. Platinum's reported low for the period was 390.25 yuan/g, against 400.55 yuan/g on reopening.
The physical market showed a different pattern. SMM described spot trading in both metals as relatively active, with quotations around parity to the most-traded futures contracts, and buyers responding to lower prices without preventing further futures weakness. The evidence supports a distinction between price-sensitive spot purchasing and sustained industrial demand; it does not establish that domestic platinum-group supplies have become structurally scarce.
The most recent import figures examined in this series remain August's, reported in the previous edition: 8.11 tonnes of unwrought platinum and platinum powder, and 3.35 tonnes of unwrought palladium and palladium powder. No October customs evidence is yet available, and the next release will determine whether the earlier strength in physical inflows continued.
What the Data Actually Show
Three developments stand out. First, gold has separated from the rest of the complex in domestic terms, rising 1.07% while every other metal fell. The divergence coincides with record Chinese ETF holdings and accelerating official-sector purchases, although September demand data cannot establish the cause of a mid-October price move and both series describe different periods.
Second, silver was the week's weakest market once the holiday distortion is removed. The headline attention has gone to palladium's 9.84% cumulative decline, but most of that was incurred on 8 October and already reported. Measured from the same base, silver's 6.64% fall was roughly double either platinum-group metal's.
Third, China's gold market continues to show a pronounced division between investment and wholesale demand. ETF holdings and official reserves increased substantially in September, while Shanghai Gold Exchange withdrawals remained well below both the previous year and longer-term averages. Strong financial demand and weak jewellery-led consumption are coexisting, and the aggregate figures conceal that split.
Key Risks
Monetary-policy expectations. Further changes in US inflation, Treasury yields and Federal Reserve expectations could produce renewed volatility in yuan-denominated precious-metals prices. The macroeconomic backdrop is consistent with the week's moves but does not independently establish the cause of any individual domestic price change.
Comparison periods. Platinum and palladium cumulative figures span the National Day closure, while gold and silver comparisons run from 8 October. September investment and official-sector data describe a different period again. These bases should not be combined into a single weekly return or flow measure.
Silver demand. The 25-tonne inventory withdrawal may reflect post-holiday replenishment rather than a sustained improvement in industrial consumption, and SMM's account of subdued transactions provides little corroborating evidence either way. Subsequent surveys will be needed to establish the direction.
Platinum-group liquidity. Active spot trading does not imply tight aggregate supply. Futures prices, prompt-delivery availability and industrial purchasing should be assessed separately, as the previous edition's import and inventory data demonstrated.
Gold demand composition. Strong ETF and central bank buying can coexist with weak jewellery consumption. The third-quarter withdrawal figures indicate that wholesale demand remains materially below historical norms despite the September month-on-month increase.
Benchmark and contract differences. SGE trading prices, the Shanghai Gold afternoon benchmark, SHFE and GFEX futures and SMM physical assessments measure different products under different conventions. Price differences between them cannot be interpreted as physical premiums or arbitrage opportunities, and no cross-market premiums are inferred in this report.
The Bottom Line
China's precious-metals markets diverged in the first full trading week after the holiday. Gold rose 1.07% in Shanghai while silver fell 6.64%, platinum 3.61% and palladium 3.11% from the same 8 October base. The cumulative platinum-group losses that have drawn most attention are largely inherited from the reopening session rather than freshly incurred, and silver was the week's weakest market by a clear margin.
The physical evidence remains mixed. Silver inventories recorded their first measurable draw since the reopening, at 25 tonnes, but spot activity stayed cautious and transactions fell short of the interest that lower prices generated. Platinum and palladium continued to attract selective physical buying without arresting the decline in futures.
Gold's position is the most clearly differentiated. September ETF inflows took holdings to a record 304 tonnes and the People's Bank of China made its largest monthly purchase in nearly three years, yet Shanghai Gold Exchange withdrawals remained 22% below the same month last year and third-quarter volumes sat 44% below the ten-year average. For the next edition, the questions are whether silver's inventory draw extends, whether gold's domestic premium to the rest of the complex persists, and whether September customs data show platinum-group imports holding at August's elevated levels.
Data and source note: Shanghai Gold Exchange values are official exchange observations from the daily trading report for 16 October 2026, compared with 8 October 2026 figures published in the previous edition. SMM physical assessments, inventories and commentary are identified separately and dated 15 October 2026. The 8 October SMM 1# silver level of 14,631.50 yuan/kg is a Bloodstone calculation from SMM's published 9 October assessment and reported daily change, not a direct observation. GFEX platinum and palladium figures are morning-session observations rather than full-day settlements, and are shown against both the 8 October reopening level and the 30 September pre-holiday close. Silver warrant inventories were not updated during the 1 to 7 October closure, so the SHFE comparison runs from 30 September. Gold ETF, central bank and Shanghai Gold Exchange withdrawal figures are September monthly data from the World Gold Council. Customs import figures refer to August 2026. All Chinese precious-metals prices are presented in their reported yuan-denominated units; no foreign-exchange conversions or cross-market physical premiums are inferred.
Sources
This document is published by Bloodstone Research for informational and institutional research purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice, an investment recommendation, an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument, commodity or security, or a forecast of future performance. Market conditions and data may change without notice. Readers should conduct their own analysis and, where appropriate, seek independent professional advice before making investment decisions. For institutional enquiries contact research@bloodstonecapital.co.uk.
