China Precious Metals Intelligence — Gold Reverses as Silver Inventories Continue to Fall

China's precious-metals markets weakened sharply in the week to 23 October, reversing the gold resilience that distinguished the previous reporting period. Shanghai Gold Exchange Au99.99 fell 4.17% and every session of the week closed lower, while Ag(T+D) lost 7.11% and palladium declined another 5.20% in the latest Guangzhou Futures Exchange comparison. Yet Chinese silver inventories fell for a second consecutive survey, and September customs data showed a marked contraction in platinum-group arrivals against still-positive cumulative growth.

TL;DR

• Gold: SGE Au99.99 fell from ¥901.57/g on 16 October to ¥864.00/g on 23 October, a 4.17% decline across five consecutive lower closes. Au(T+D) lost 4.16%.
• Silver prices: SGE Ag(T+D) declined 7.11% to ¥13,021/kg and the spot Ag99.99 contract fell 6.45%, also in five consecutive lower closes.
• Silver inventories: SMM social inventory fell another 75 tonnes to 3,833.92 tonnes in its 22 October survey, three times the preceding week's draw.
• Silver trade: September unwrought silver exports fell 23.7% month on month to 309.77 tonnes while imports rose 73.5% to 114.93 tonnes, leaving net exports of 194.84 tonnes.
• Platinum: GFEX PT2612 fell 0.50% to ¥389.45/g, having traded between ¥406.15 and ¥386.10. September imports fell 18.50% month on month to 6.61 tonnes.
• Palladium: GFEX PD2612 fell 5.20% to ¥249.75/g, having reached a new contract low of ¥247.25/g. September imports fell 54.26% year on year, while cumulative import growth slowed from 116% at the half-year to approximately 50%.

Gold's Relative Strength Breaks Down

The principal change from the previous edition is the reversal in Chinese gold prices.

During the first full trading week after the National Day holiday, gold was the only one of the four precious metals to advance on the comparison used in this series, with Au99.99 gaining 1.07% between 8 and 16 October while silver, platinum and palladium all declined. That divergence did not survive the following week. Au99.99 closed at ¥864.00 per gram on Friday 23 October, down ¥37.57 from its 16 October close of ¥901.57, a decline of 4.17% that more than reversed the preceding advance four times over. The deferred-settlement Au(T+D) contract followed almost exactly the same path, falling from ¥900.90 to ¥863.38, down 4.16%.

The consistency of the decline is as notable as its scale. Au99.99 closed lower in all five sessions of the week, at ¥900.89, ¥889.78, ¥887.50, ¥880.30 and ¥864.00, with no intervening session in which the contract recovered ground. That distinguishes the move from a single adverse session within an otherwise stable week.

The final session was the weakest. Au99.99 fell 1.85% on 23 October alone, opening at ¥874.50 and trading between ¥856.01 and ¥883.98 before settling at ¥864.00. Au(T+D) declined by the same proportion on a closing basis.

These are domestic yuan-denominated trading prices rather than international dollar quotations or Shanghai Gold Benchmark auction prices. Their movement nevertheless establishes that gold's previous relative resilience was not sustained. The reversal also illustrates why September's investment figures cannot explain individual October sessions: Chinese gold ETF holdings reached a record 304 tonnes and the People's Bank of China added 23 tonnes during that month, but those are monthly observations covering a different period.

The Precious Metals Board

Sources: Shanghai Gold Exchange official daily closing prices, 16 and 23 October 2026; SMM platinum and palladium weekly review, 22 October 2026. SGE comparisons cover 16 to 23 October while GFEX comparisons cover 15 to 22 October, so the platinum-group figures end one session earlier and exclude Friday's trading.

The silver series differs from the previous edition, which used SMM's #1 physical assessment. SMM's latest weekly review described #1 silver trading within approximately ¥13,700–14,000 per kilogram to 22 October rather than publishing a single closing level for 23 October, so this edition uses the exchange's own Ag99.99 and Ag(T+D) closes, observed on the same basis as the gold series. The previous edition's 6.64% decline in SMM #1 silver is not continuous with the figures above and the two should not be chained into a single return series. The percentages are likewise not a single cross-market ranking: SGE spot and deferred-settlement contracts and GFEX futures are different instruments with different settlement conventions.

Silver: Prices Fall While Inventories Draw Again

Silver provides the clearest distinction between exchange prices and physical activity.

Ag(T+D) closed at ¥13,021 per kilogram on 23 October against ¥14,018 on 16 October, a fall of ¥997 or 7.11%, and like gold it closed lower in every session of the week. The spot Ag99.99 contract fell 6.45% over the same period. The Friday session accounted for much of the move, with Ag(T+D) down 3.87% on a closing basis and trading as low as ¥12,904.

Silver was also the weakest of the four metals in the preceding edition, falling 6.64% on the SMM assessment. Unlike gold, therefore, silver's price weakness is a continuation rather than a reversal, now extending across two consecutive reporting periods.

Physical inventories moved the other way. SMM reported Chinese silver social inventory of 3,833.92 tonnes in its 22 October review, down 75 tonnes from the previous survey and approximately 1.9% of that base. The reduction followed a 25-tonne draw in the preceding edition, so the latest withdrawal is three times larger and the second consecutive decline rather than an isolated post-holiday movement.

SMM attributed the draw principally to purchasing encouraged by lower prices, including seasonal jewellery demand in Shenzhen, with suppliers reportedly reluctant to sell at reduced quotations. That evidence supports a recovery in price-sensitive transactions rather than a broad acceleration in industrial consumption. The survey also predates Friday's sharper decline, so it does not capture any response to the week's lowest prices.

Exchange Warrants Move in Opposite Directions

The composition of the inventory movement qualifies its apparent strength.

Source: SMM Silver Weekly Review, 22 October 2026, using the comparison periods identified in that assessment.

Shanghai Futures Exchange warrant stocks fell while Shanghai Gold Exchange warrant stocks rose. These categories are not additive to social inventory as separate pools; they represent different views of material held within China's trading and storage system, and transfers between categories can alter reported balances without changing total physical availability. Metal was therefore not leaving every monitored pool simultaneously, which points to selective purchasing and redistribution rather than uniform depletion.

Silver Customs: Imports Recover as Exports Decline

September customs figures provide a separate measure of physical flows. Exports of 99.99% unwrought silver totalled 309.77 tonnes, down 23.7% from August, while imports of the same category reached 114.93 tonnes, up 73.5%.

China consequently remained a net exporter of the specified category despite the substantial import recovery. The directional change still matters, since falling exports and rising imports both reduce the net outward movement of metal, though the data cannot establish whether that reflects domestic consumption, trade arbitrage or inventory management. SMM identified improved import economics from late August into September alongside weaker overseas purchasing interest. These flows precede the October inventory survey and cannot directly explain the 75-tonne reduction.

SMM also reported that imports of silver ores and concentrates rose substantially during the year, but that much of the volume was associated with lead concentrates containing relatively little silver, so gross concentrate tonnage overstates the increase in recoverable supply.

Platinum: A Narrow Weekly Change Over a Wide Range

Platinum's weekly GFEX decline was comparatively slight, but the closing figure conceals considerable movement within the period. The most-traded PT2612 contract closed at ¥389.45 per gram on 22 October against ¥391.40 on 15 October, a fall of 0.50%, having traded between a weekly high of ¥406.15 and a low of ¥386.10 before settling near the lower end of that range.

SMM described renewed spot purchasing as futures weakened, with platinum ingot suppliers quoting approximately ¥1 to ¥2 per gram above the PT2612 contract on 22 October and available ingot supply described as relatively tight.

September customs data are the more substantial development. China imported approximately 6.61 tonnes of unwrought platinum and platinum powder, down 18.50% from August's 8.11 tonnes and 31.22% below the approximately 9.61 tonnes imported in September 2025.

Palladium: Another Contract Low as Import Growth Decelerates

Palladium remained the weakest platinum-group metal. PD2612 fell from ¥263.45 per gram on 15 October to ¥249.75 on 22 October, a decline of 5.20%, having traded between a weekly high of ¥273.45 and a low of ¥247.25. That low, approximately 9.6% below the week's high, was identified by SMM as a new low since the contract's listing, extending the pattern documented in the previous two editions when palladium established successive lows after the holiday reopening.

Physical evidence was more mixed. SMM reported improved purchasing interest as prices fell but also described relatively ample recycled and imported availability, with mainstream spot quotations approximately at parity to the PD2612 contract. Unlike platinum, where certain ingot quotations carried positive premiums, the palladium spot market offered limited evidence of immediate scarcity.

September imports reinforced the weaker picture at approximately 2.90 tonnes, down 13.43% from August and 54.26% below the approximately 6.34 tonnes imported in September 2025. The annual contraction is the steepest in either metal, but the cumulative position is better described as decelerating growth than as decline: palladium's year-to-date import growth has slowed from 116% at the half-year to approximately 50% by September.

Ample Inventories, Tighter Immediate Availability

Source: Chinese customs figures reported by SMM, 23 October 2026. All monthly quantities are rounded as reported.

The two tables explain why weaker arrivals have not produced an obvious supply response. Both metals imported materially less in September, yet both remain above their 2025 cumulative levels, because the reduction is measured against an unusually strong first half. Import volumes also reflect inventories, price differentials, financing and procurement timing as well as final consumption, so monthly arrivals are a poor proxy for demand.

The more useful distinction is between aggregate and immediately available stocks. SMM's assessment is that earlier elevated imports left Chinese supply comfortable in aggregate, but that purchasing and stockpiling at lower prices may have reduced the portion readily available for prompt delivery. That reconciles two observations which otherwise appear contradictory: platinum ingot quotations carrying premiums of ¥1 to ¥2 per gram and described as relatively tight, within a market whose accumulated imports remain well above last year's. A comfortable headline inventory can coexist with a thinner prompt market, and the premium is evidence of the latter rather than of aggregate scarcity.

What the Data Actually Show

Three developments distinguish the latest reporting period.

First, gold's domestic outperformance has reversed completely. Au99.99 fell 4.17% across five consecutive lower closes, surrendering the previous week's 1.07% gain several times over. September's record ETF holdings and official-sector purchases remain relevant to the medium-term demand picture but did not prevent the correction.

Second, silver's physical draw accelerated while its price fell for a second week. Social stocks declined 75 tonnes after the preceding 25-tonne reduction, and September customs data showed higher imports against lower exports. Those observations suggest greater availability of imported metal alongside renewed price-sensitive purchasing, not a sustained recovery in industrial demand, and the warrant movements show material redistributing between pools rather than leaving all of them.

Third, the platinum-group picture depends on which inventory is measured. September arrivals fell materially in both metals while cumulative imports remain above 2025 levels, and the firmness in platinum ingot premiums points to a prompt market that has tightened beneath comfortable aggregate stocks. Lower arrivals and weak futures can coexist with firmer spot terms when the available portion of an ample inventory has been drawn down.

The broader point is that prices, customs flows and warehouse stocks operate over different horizons and measure different things.

Key Risks

Observation dates. SGE gold and silver returns cover 16 to 23 October. GFEX platinum and palladium returns cover 15 to 22 October and exclude Friday. Silver inventory figures are from SMM's 22 October survey, and customs data describe September.

Series continuity. This edition uses SGE silver contracts where the previous edition used SMM's #1 physical assessment. The two are different instruments and their weekly returns cannot be chained.

Inventory definitions. Social inventory and exchange warrants are not independent additive pools. Changes can reflect transfers, registration and financing arrangements as well as consumption.

Aggregate versus prompt availability. Comfortable cumulative imports do not establish that material is readily deliverable, and firmer spot premiums do not establish aggregate scarcity. The two measures can move in opposite directions.

Customs interpretation. September import declines are not equivalent to reductions in consumption, and both platinum-group metals remain above last year's cumulative levels.

Contract comparability. SGE transaction prices, SMM physical assessments and GFEX futures have different specifications and settlement conventions. No cross-market physical premium or arbitrage is inferred from their differences.

FAQ

How far did Chinese gold prices fall? SGE Au99.99 declined from ¥901.57/g on 16 October to ¥864.00/g on 23 October, a fall of 4.17%, with lower closes in all five sessions of the week.

Did Chinese silver inventories continue falling? Yes. SMM reported a 75-tonne decline to 3,833.92 tonnes in its 22 October survey, three times the 25-tonne reduction recorded in the preceding period.

Why does this edition quote a different silver price series? SMM published a trading range rather than a single 23 October assessment for #1 physical silver, so this edition uses the SGE's own Ag99.99 and Ag(T+D) closes, observed on the same basis as the gold series.

Was China a net importer of silver in September? No. For the specified 99.99% unwrought category, exports totalled 309.77 tonnes against imports of 114.93 tonnes, implying net exports of 194.84 tonnes.

How much did palladium fall? GFEX PD2612 declined 5.20% between 15 and 22 October, closing at ¥249.75/g after an intraday low of ¥247.25/g, a new low since the contract's listing.

If platinum-group imports fell so sharply, why is there no shortage? Because the fall is measured against an exceptionally strong first half, leaving cumulative imports above 2025 levels. SMM's assessment is that aggregate supply remains comfortable while recent buying at lower prices may have reduced the portion immediately available, which is consistent with platinum ingot premiums of ¥1 to ¥2 per gram.

Data and source note: Shanghai Gold Exchange gold and silver figures are official daily closing prices for 16 and 23 October 2026, with intraday ranges and session changes calculated from the same closing series. SMM's silver social and warrant inventory readings are from its weekly review dated 22 October, and September silver trade figures from its customs analysis of 21 October. GFEX platinum and palladium prices and trading ranges are from SMM's weekly review of 22 October, with the platinum ingot premium from its daily review of the same date. September platinum and palladium import figures, the September 2025 comparisons, cumulative year-to-date volumes and growth rates are from SMM's customs analysis of 23 October. Monthly and weekly data are not presented as contemporaneous observations. All prices retain their original currencies and units, and no foreign-exchange conversion is applied.

Sources

Shanghai Gold Exchange — official daily market data, Au99.99, Au(T+D), Ag99.99 and Ag(T+D)ww.sge.com.cn/sjzx/mrhq

SMM — Silver Weekly Review, 22 October 2026ews.metal.com/ko/newscontent/104173480-silver-consolidates-at-lows-ahead-of-us-fed-rate-meeting-spot-trades-show-weak-recovery-smm-silver-weekly-review

SMM — China's silver imports increase, exports decline in September, 21 October 2026ews.metal.com/newscontent/104171579-smm-silver-analysis-chinas-silver-imports-increase-exports-decline-in-september-amid-price-ratios-and-policy-shifts

SMM — Platinum and Palladium Weekly Review, 22 October 2026ews.metal.com/ru/newscontent/104173941-platinum-and-palladium-suffer-heavy-losses-again-at-weeks-end-spot-market-premiums-rise-with-active-trading-smm-platinum-and-palladium-weekly-review

SMM — Platinum Daily Review, 22 October 2026ews.metal.com/newscontent/104173251-platinum-under-pressure-and-fell-spot-market-trading-was-relatively-active-smm-daily-review

SMM — September platinum and palladium import and export analysis, 23 October 2026ews.metal.com/vn/newscontent/104176743

Bloodstone Research — China Precious Metals Intelligence: Gold Decouples as Silver Leads the Selling, 19 October 2026hina-precious-metals-intelligence-2026-10-19