China Precious Metals Intelligence — Platinum Falls 7.9% as Silver Stocks Rebuild

Shanghai Gold Exchange platinum was the weakest Chinese precious metal in the week to 30 October, falling 7.88% on a Friday-to-Friday basis, with more than half of that decline concentrated in the final session. Silver provided the second major development: SMM's 29 October survey recorded social inventory rising 33 tonnes to 3,867 tonnes, the first reported build after two consecutive draws. Gold's decline slowed to 1.07%, and the platinum-group chemical market fell for a further week at a markedly decelerating pace.

TL;DR

• Platinum: SGE Pt99.95 fell 7.88% to ¥356.89/g between 23 and 30 October, with Friday alone accounting for 54.5% of the move. GFEX PT2612 fell 4.30% on SMM's Thursday-morning comparison.
• Silver inventories: SMM social stocks rose 33 tonnes to 3,867 tonnes, reversing the previous 75-tonne draw. SGE warrants rose 25 tonnes and SHFE warrants 3.6 tonnes.
• Silver prices: SGE Ag(T+D) fell 7.55% to ¥12,038/kg, extending the previous week's 7.11% decline. Ag99.99 lost 6.78%.
• Gold: SGE Au99.99 fell 1.07% to ¥854.76/g, against a 4.17% decline the preceding week.
• Palladium: GFEX PD2612 declined 4.00%, with spot quotations from a ¥0.50/g discount to parity and NYMEX inventories near one-year highs.
• Chemicals: Chloroplatinic acid fell 2.54% and palladium chloride 1.90%, against declines of 3.6% and 5.1% the previous week.
• Policy: The Federal Reserve held rates at 3.75–4.00% on 28 October, with two Committee members dissenting in favour of an immediate increase.

Platinum Leads the Complex Lower

The most consequential development is platinum's decline on the exchange's own Friday-inclusive series. SGE Pt99.95 closed at ¥356.89 per gram on 30 October against ¥387.43 on 23 October, a fall of ¥30.54 or 7.88%. The final session accounted for ¥16.64 of that movement, a daily decline of 4.45% and 54.5% of the week's entire fall. That makes platinum the largest decliner among the comparable SGE precious-metals prices, ahead of Ag(T+D) at 7.55% and Ag99.99 at 6.78%, with gold down approximately one per cent.

The qualification is liquidity. Pt99.95 traded 82kg on 30 October and 44kg on 23 October, against Ag(T+D)'s 514,784kg and Au99.99's 9,317.76kg. The contract establishes a Friday-inclusive observation on the same basis as the gold and silver series, which no other Chinese platinum price provides, but its turnover is too small for it to serve as the principal measure of platinum's futures-market performance. GFEX PT2612 remains the more useful futures comparison, and both appear below.

Silver's inventory reversal is the second substantive finding. In the previous edition, SMM reported social inventory falling 75 tonnes to 3,833.92 tonnes in its 22 October survey, following a 25-tonne draw in the preceding period; those consecutive declines had suggested lower prices were drawing out selective physical purchasing. The latest review records 3,867 tonnes, an increase of 33 tonnes week on week, or approximately 0.9% of the preceding balance. SMM attributed the build to month-end invoice-related procurement, a modest rise in SHFE stocks and banking activity at the Shanghai Gold Exchange, alongside weak transactions and a stand-off between buyers reluctant to commit and suppliers unwilling to cut quotations.

On policy, the Federal Reserve held the federal funds target range at 3.75–4.00% on 28 October by a 10–2 vote, with Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack preferring an immediate quarter-point increase. The Committee described economic activity as expanding at a strong pace and inflation as remaining elevated. Higher yields, dollar strength and shifting expectations for the policy path are plausible channels of pressure on non-yielding metals, and the dissents establish that tightening risk was live during the reporting week. None of that apportions the week's Chinese price declines among those factors.

The Precious Metals Board

Sources: Shanghai Gold Exchange official daily reports, 23 and 30 October 2026; SMM Platinum and Palladium Weekly Review, 29 October 2026.

The SGE rows are official closing prices for two consecutive Fridays and are directly comparable. The GFEX rows use SMM's 29 October observations at approximately 10:00 against the previous Thursday's closes, so they exclude Friday; because the SGE lists a platinum contract but no palladium contract, platinum can be measured on the Friday basis and palladium cannot. The volume column carries weight: on 23 October, Ag99.99 recorded a single price for the whole session on 330kg.

Platinum: Futures Weakness With Firm Physical Terms

The most-traded GFEX PT2612 contract stood at ¥372.70 per gram at approximately 10:00 on 29 October against ¥389.45 at the previous Thursday's close, a decline of 4.30%, having traded between ¥384.25 and ¥363.70 during the period. That window captures roughly half of what the Friday-inclusive SGE series records, which is a reporting-period difference rather than a disagreement between the two markets.

SMM reported that the most-traded NYMEX platinum contract briefly broke below $1,500 per ounce on 27 October, touching $1,491.70, and identified that level as the basis for its assessment that platinum is technically oversold and finding support from mine costs. Physical quotations were firmer than the futures throughout: suppliers maintained premiums of approximately ¥1/g above PT2612, with most traders holding offers firm and transaction volumes described as normal, even as aggregate purchasing pulled back because downstream users had stockpiled during the earlier decline. That premium is a quotation relative to a domestic futures contract rather than an observed premium over international prices. One-month London platinum lease rates stayed below 2%, so overseas financing conditions had not signalled tightening supply.

Palladium: Discounts Persist Against Inventories Near Annual Highs

Palladium followed platinum lower, but its physical terms were weaker throughout. GFEX PD2612 stood at ¥239.75 per gram at approximately 10:00 on 29 October against ¥249.75 on 22 October, a decline of ¥10 or 4.00%, with a period high of ¥251.00 and a low of ¥238.65. Spot quotations ranged from a discount of approximately ¥0.50/g to parity against PD2612, which SMM characterised as intense competition among suppliers alongside mediocre trading.

The inventory position is the clearest explanation for that discount. NYMEX palladium warehouse stocks stood at approximately 248,920 ounces, down 631 ounces from 23 October but still near 250,000 ounces and, on SMM's assessment, close to one-year highs with the ample supply picture unchanged. Platinum inventories were broadly flat at approximately 252,070 ounces after several consecutive days of no change, ending a run of sustained outflows. The two metals' lease rates point the same way: one-month London palladium hovered near 1%, below platinum's sub-2% rate, which SMM reads as evidence that palladium's spot structure is the looser of the two and that the financing side has yet to signal any tightening.

September customs figures remain the latest import data and were covered in the preceding edition. China imported approximately 6.61 tonnes of unwrought platinum and platinum powder, down 18.50% month on month and 31.22% year on year, and approximately 2.90 tonnes of palladium equivalents, down 13.43% and 54.26%. SMM's view is that a single weak month will not change domestic ampleness, given previously elevated imports and the export restrictions applying to both metals, and that the question is whether the import contraction persists.

Gold: The Sell-Off Slows, but Friday Remains Weak

Gold's decline moderated considerably after the preceding week's reversal. SGE Au99.99 closed at ¥854.76 per gram on 30 October against ¥864.00 on 23 October, a reduction of ¥9.24 or 1.07%, far smaller than the previous week's 4.17% fall from ¥901.57. Au(T+D) fell from ¥863.38 to ¥854.58, a decline of 1.02%, and the consistency between the two instruments supports the conclusion that domestic gold weakened further at a slower pace. Across the two-week view, Au99.99 has fallen approximately 5.19% from its 16 October close.

Friday's session was less reassuring than the weekly comparison suggests. Au99.99 opened at ¥863.80, reached ¥867.00 and traded as low as ¥853.50 before closing at ¥854.76, an official daily decline of 1.21% calculated against the exchange's preceding reference close rather than the weekly comparison. Au(T+D) closed at ¥854.58 after trading between ¥853.33 and ¥866.00, a reported daily decline of 1.42%; its reference close of ¥866.93 sat above the day's high, so the contract never recovered its opening gap. September's record Chinese gold ETF holdings and official-sector accumulation remain relevant to medium-term demand but are not contemporaneous evidence of buying in the final week of October.

Silver: A Second Heavy Weekly Decline Meets the Inventory Build

Silver's exchange-price deterioration continued at pace. SGE Ag(T+D) closed at ¥12,038 per kilogram on 30 October, down from ¥13,021, a fall of ¥983 or 7.55% following the preceding week's 7.11% reduction. Ag99.99 declined from ¥13,135 to ¥12,244, a fall of 6.78%, though its thin volumes make it the less reliable series. Friday was particularly weak: Ag(T+D) opened at ¥12,505, reached ¥12,605 and traded as low as ¥12,016 before closing at ¥12,038, an exchange-reported daily decline of 6.30%.

Those closes qualify SMM's Thursday description of silver stabilising within a ¥12,800–13,100 range after testing ¥12,800. That assessment preceded Friday's decline and cannot describe the completed week: Ag(T+D) finished ¥762 below the bottom of the range SMM identified. For November, SMM projects SGE silver between ¥12,600 and ¥13,500 per kilogram and LBMA silver between $52 and $55 per ounce, with TD quotations around parity to a slight discount.

The physical evidence is more complicated than the price action. SMM reported Shanghai spot quotations generally at a ¥20–35/kg discount to the SHFE 2612 contract, with the basis holding firm at ¥30–45/kg, and described reduced downstream purchasing after earlier restocking, with transactions concentrated around specific procurement needs including ingots carrying current-month invoices. It also reported silver ETF holdings of 15,541.85 tonnes as at 28 October, up 1.39% month on month, and the LBMA gold-to-silver ratio at 75 and climbing. Those are international investment measures rather than Chinese availability: the SGE's own closes imply a domestic ratio of approximately 69.8, and the gap reflects different price series rather than domestic scarcity.

Exchange Warrants: Both Pools Increase

Source: SMM Silver Weekly Review, published 29 October 2026.

Both exchange-warrant measures increased in SMM's latest comparison, unlike the previous week, when SGE warrants rose while SHFE warrants declined. The SGE increase was the larger, and SMM identified banking activity at the exchange and month-end invoicing among the contributing factors. The direction of travel across all three measures is now the same, which has not been true in the preceding two editions.

One inconsistency within the source is worth recording. SMM's macro commentary lists continued exchange inventory drawdowns among the factors supporting silver prices, while its own data section reports SHFE warrants building 3.6 tonnes; its platinum-group review closes by asking whether domestic warrant destocking can continue. The published data show accumulation in both silver pools for this period, and that is the figure used here.

Platinum-Group Chemicals and Physical Indicators

Source: SMM Platinum and Palladium Weekly Review, 29 October 2026. Futures observations are from approximately 10:00 on 29 October; physical quotations, warehouse stocks, lease rates and chemical prices use the periods specified in SMM's review.

The chemical market gives the clearest sign of deceleration anywhere in the platinum-group data. Chloroplatinic acid fell ¥4 to an average ¥153.5 per gram and palladium chloride ¥3 to ¥154.5, declines of 2.54% and 1.90%. Both reached new stage lows, but both slowed sharply from the previous week's falls of 3.6% and 5.1%, and the deceleration is the more informative observation: it indicates the pace of downstream price adjustment easing while absolute levels continued to erode.

The relative movement is also notable. The two chemicals began the period level at ¥157.5 per gram and ended with palladium chloride priced above chloroplatinic acid, a crossover consistent with the divergence visible in the spot and lease-rate data. SMM reported downstream buying sentiment slipping against previous weeks, with platinum-based compounds attracting somewhat stronger purchase willingness than palladium-based equivalents, while ruthenium prices stabilised and rhodium and iridium raw materials held at highs with downstream users still digesting earlier gains.

What the Data Actually Show

Three developments distinguish the latest reporting period. Platinum was the weakest metal once Friday is included, down 7.88% against the 4.30% the Thursday-morning GFEX window records. Silver's inventory direction reversed, with social stocks and both warrant measures rising alongside weaker spot transactions. Gold's weekly decline slowed sharply from 4.17% to 1.07%, but Friday remained weak, supporting moderation in the rate of decline rather than a confirmed recovery.

The divergence between futures and physical terms persisted within the platinum group. Platinum held a positive futures-relative premium with normal transaction volumes, while palladium traded at or below parity against inventories near annual highs and a looser lease-rate structure. The chemical market fell in both metals but at a decelerating pace. The common analytical issue is timing: Friday's SGE closes, Thursday's SMM surveys, Thursday-morning GFEX observations and September customs data describe different periods and different markets, and cannot be treated as a single contemporaneous balance.

Key Risks

Observation dates. SGE gold, silver and platinum prices are Friday-to-Friday closing comparisons, while SMM's silver inventory assessment and platinum-group futures figures were recorded on Thursday 29 October and capture no part of Friday's trading.

Contract liquidity. Ag99.99 and Pt99.95 trade in far smaller volumes than Ag(T+D) and the gold contracts. Weekly returns on the thinner contracts carry correspondingly less weight, and Pt99.95's 7.88% decline rests on 82kg of Friday turnover.

Inventory definitions. Social stocks and exchange warrants overlap as reporting concepts and cannot be added together into a national stock movement, since changes in registration can alter a warrant balance without changing total domestic availability.

Physical-market interpretation. Lower exchange prices do not establish weaker industrial demand, and positive spot premiums do not establish aggregate shortages. Contract basis, availability and procurement timing all matter.

Policy attribution. The Federal Reserve's October decision and the dissents accompanying it are matters of record, but the relationship between policy expectations and individual Chinese sessions is not quantified here.

International comparisons. Silver ETF holdings, the LBMA gold-to-silver ratio, NYMEX warehouse stocks, NYMEX platinum's dollar prices and London lease rates measure different markets from Chinese social inventory and GFEX-relative quotations, and September customs data cannot be presented as October flows.

FAQ

Which Chinese precious metal fell most in the week to 30 October?

Platinum. SGE Pt99.95 fell 7.88% to ¥356.89/g, ahead of Ag(T+D) at 7.55% and Ag99.99 at 6.78%, while gold declined 1.07%. The GFEX platinum comparison shows a smaller 4.30% fall because it ends on Thursday morning.

Why do the platinum figures differ between the SGE and GFEX?

They are different contracts measured over different windows. SGE Pt99.95 is a Friday-to-Friday comparison of official closes, while the GFEX PT2612 figure is SMM's observation at approximately 10:00 on Thursday 29 October against the previous Thursday's close. Friday alone cost Pt99.95 4.45%.

Should the SGE platinum figure replace the GFEX one?

No. Pt99.95 traded 82kg on 30 October against Ag(T+D)'s 514,784kg, so its weekly return rests on very limited activity. It provides a Friday-inclusive observation that no other Chinese platinum price offers, but GFEX PT2612 remains the principal measure of futures-market performance.

Are Chinese silver inventories still falling?

Not in SMM's latest survey. Social inventory increased 33 tonnes to 3,867 tonnes, reversing the preceding 75-tonne decline. SGE warrants rose approximately 25 tonnes to 910 tonnes and SHFE warrants 3.6 tonnes to 1,372.3 tonnes. The increase was small and partly associated with month-end invoicing and bank operations at the SGE, so a single weekly movement cannot establish a structural surplus.

Did Chinese gold prices recover in the final week of October?

No. SGE Au99.99 declined another 1.07% between 23 and 30 October, closing at ¥854.76/g. The fall was smaller than the previous week's 4.17%, but Friday's session was still negative at 1.21%.

Why did platinum retain a spot premium while palladium traded at a discount?

SMM reported different supplier conditions. Platinum premiums held around ¥1/g above PT2612 with normal transaction volumes, while palladium ranged from a ¥0.50/g discount to parity against PD2612. Palladium's NYMEX inventories sit near one-year highs and its one-month London lease rate near 1%, below platinum's, pointing to a looser spot structure.

What do the chemical prices add?

They show the downstream decline slowing. Chloroplatinic acid fell 2.54% to ¥153.5/g and palladium chloride 1.90% to ¥154.5/g, against falls of 3.6% and 5.1% the previous week, even as both reached new stage lows.

Data and Source Note

Shanghai Gold Exchange gold, silver and platinum prices are official closing quotations for 23 and 30 October 2026, retrieved from the exchange's daily report. Weekly percentage changes are calculated from those closes, while daily changes, intraday ranges and trading volumes are the exchange's own reported figures.

Silver social inventory, SGE and SHFE warrant balances, ETF holdings, the LBMA gold-to-silver ratio, spot quotations, the November price projections and associated commentary are from SMM's Silver Weekly Review published 29 October 2026. GFEX platinum and palladium prices, physical premiums, overseas warehouse inventories, lease rates, NYMEX platinum's dollar low and platinum-group chemical prices are from SMM's Platinum and Palladium Weekly Review published 29 October 2026. September platinum-group import figures are historical context previously reported in the 26 October edition.

Federal Reserve policy details are taken from the Committee's own statement of 28 October rather than from secondary commentary. The decision date is given in United States terms; reports published in China date the same decision to the early hours of 29 October local time. Domestic exchange prices, physical assessments, warehouse inventories, lease rates, chemical prices and customs flows are distinct series and are not combined into a single supply balance.

Primary Sources

• Shanghai Gold Exchange — Daily Report, 23 October 2026

• Shanghai Gold Exchange — Daily Report, 30 October 2026

• Shanghai Metals Market — Silver Weekly Review, 29 October 2026

• Shanghai Metals Market — Platinum and Palladium Weekly Review, 29 October 2026

• Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System — FOMC statement, 28 October 2026

• Bloodstone Research — China Precious Metals Intelligence, 26 October 2026