Commodities30 October 2026 · 3,144 words · 14 min read
Tin analysis — 2026-10-30
tin market analysis lme tin contangolme tin stocksman maw tin mine restartmyanmar tin ore exportspt timah first half 2026chinese tin smelter operating rates
Tin's nearby structure flipped into contango on 29 October, its first since 12 October after twelve backwardated or flat sessions, with LME stocks at 4,020 tonnes — twenty above their 2026 low and 53% below their end-June level. The relaxation came from cash cheapening faster than three-month metal, not from inventory rebuilding. Concentrate is returning from Myanmar and Indonesia, while surveyed Chinese smelter utilisation of 27.11% in the week to 23 October suggests that recovery has yet to reach refined metal.
TL;DR
LME tin cash settled at $50,400 against $50,475 for three-month metal on 29 October, a $75 contango, after twelve sessions of backwardation or parity since 12 October.
The flip came from the nearby end: cash fell $1,300 or 2.51% on the day against three-month's $875 or 1.70%.
LME stocks stood at 4,020 tonnes on 29 October, down 15 on the day — not up 35, which was the 28 October movement.
Stocks are 53.1% below their 30 June level of 8,575 tonnes and 55.5% below the 2026 peak of 9,025 tonnes.
The 29 October warrant split of 3,690 live and 330 cancelled sums exactly to 4,020 tonnes, so about 8.2% is earmarked for withdrawal.
Surveyed operating rates at smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi were 27.11% in the week to 23 October, with SMM citing maintenance and raw-material constraints.
Chinese tin ore imports from Myanmar reached nearly 40,000 tonnes of gross ore in the first half of 2026, above the whole of 2025, as Man Maw restarts.
CRU estimates quoted by PT Timah put first-half global refined production at 173,536 tonnes against consumption of 179,256 tonnes, a shortfall of 5,720 tonnes.
The Curve Flipped on 29 October
The week's defining change is in the nearby structure. Tin had been backwardated or flat in every session since 12 October, with the cash premium reaching $350 on 28 October. On 29 October it inverted.
The mechanism matters more than the level. Cash settlement fell $1,300, or 2.51%, between 28 and 29 October while three-month metal fell $875, or 1.70% — a $425 divergence that is the whole of the move into contango. Nearby tin cheapened faster; forward tin did not become dearer. The official bid basis the same day gives a $60 contango, cash at $50,390 against $50,450, with the curve almost flat out to fifteen months at $50,455.
A backwardation running twelve sessions reflects participants paying to hold nearby metal. Its removal in one session, driven entirely by the cash leg, indicates the premium for immediacy was withdrawn rather than forward availability improving — though the curve does not establish why, and one session is weak evidence.
Stocks Are Near Their 2026 Low, Not Rebuilding
The dates matter here. LME tin stock was 4,020 tonnes on 29 October, having been 4,035 on 28 October and 4,000 on both 26 and 27 October. The 35-tonne increase widely cited for 29 October was in fact the 28 October movement; the 29 October change was a 15-tonne decline.
That also resolves an apparent inconsistency in the exchange's published summary. The opening stock of 4,035 tonnes is the balance carried in from the previous session, while the warrant breakdown of 3,690 live and 330 cancelled sums to exactly 4,020 — the 29 October position. The two describe different moments rather than disagreeing.
Against the year, the level is low and falling. Stocks opened 2026 at 5,415 tonnes, peaked at 9,025, stood at 8,575 on 30 June, and have since fallen 53.1% to 4,020. The 2026 low of 4,000 was touched on 26 and 27 October, twenty tonnes below the latest reading, and roughly 8.2% of the current total is cancelled for withdrawal.
The contango therefore arrived close to the tightest visible inventory position of the year, and not because metal was returning to warehouses.
Concentrate Is Returning From Myanmar and Indonesia
The supply side offers a candidate explanation, though at the concentrate stage rather than the refined one.
Wa State's Man Maw mine, suspended since 2023, has restarted. The International Crisis Group's analysis of 10 September described ore moving again in what its senior Asia adviser Richard Horsey called a steady but uneven ramp-up. The International Tin Association recorded the Wa authorities formalising a 5% levy on concentrate from the first transported batch to fund joint dewatering of the deeper flooded adits, effective 1 March, which the ITA estimated takes the combined burden on mine owners to roughly 35% once the existing 30% tax-in-kind is included — an estimated cost share, not a measured breakeven. Chinese tin ore imports from Myanmar reached nearly 40,000 tonnes in the first half of 2026, above the whole of 2025, on a gross ore basis that is not comparable with contained-metal volumes.
The ITA also set out a conditional scenario in which exports to China approach 20,000 tonnes of contained tin during 2026 if Chinese prices hold above RMB 350,000 per tonne. SMM's #1 tin average of ¥385,850 sits above that level, but the condition being met is not evidence the outcome will be.
In Indonesia, PT Timah reported a substantial first-half recovery: ore production up 74.8% to 12,232 tonnes of contained tin, refined output up 58.2% to 10,865 tonnes and sales up 85.1% to 10,984 tonnes, realised at $49,794 per tonne, 51.7% higher year on year, against a 30,000-tonne refined target for the year. The company is not the country, and its first-half figures do not establish the direction of total Indonesian supply in late October; that depends on other producers, national exports and the second-half profile. National monthly refined exports did rise from 2,999.54 tonnes in June to 4,670.54 tonnes in August, 43.9% above May's level.
In the Democratic Republic of Congo, the Bisie mine — roughly 6% of global production on Coface's estimate — reported second-quarter production and sales in line with full-year guidance.
Refined Output Has Not Followed
Surveyed combined operating rates at smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi stood at 27.11% in the week to 23 October, with SMM attributing the level to maintenance and raw-material constraints. That observation is a week older than the curve and stock readings above, and the two should not be treated as contemporaneous.
The stated reason matters for how long the gap persists. Maintenance removes capability: lines are unavailable and return on an engineering timetable largely independent of price. A raw-material constraint removes throughput for another reason, and amid rising concentrate imports it invites a question — whether the binding problem is volume or terms, with smelters unwilling to buy concentrate at prevailing treatment charges rather than unable to source it. The data do not separate those cases.
What the evidence supports is narrower than a migration of the bottleneck from mine to smelter. Some concentrate import flows are recovering and surveyed refined conversion remains low; whether the second follows from the first, from maintenance, or from commercial terms is not established, and the dates do not align closely enough to assert a mechanism.
The Half-Year Refined Balance
One period-wide measure is worth setting against these daily observations. CRU estimates quoted in PT Timah's first-half announcement put global refined tin production at 173,536 tonnes in the first half of 2026 against consumption of 179,256 tonnes, an implied shortfall of 5,720 tonnes.
That is a CRU estimate reported by a producer rather than an independently verified balance, and it covers the six months to June rather than October. Its value is in scale: a first-half deficit of that size is consistent with LME stocks falling by more than half since the end of June, which places the drawdown in a refined-market context rather than treating it as purely a warehouse phenomenon. It says nothing about late October.
Coface, writing on 5 February, projected refined production growth of about 3% against demand growth of 3.5%, tipping the market into its first deficit since 2021. The direction agrees with the CRU figures, but the forecast assumed a 2% fall in Indonesian output that PT Timah's first half contradicts, so its magnitude is superseded.
Reported Fund Exposure Is the Smallest in the Complex
LME Investment Funds held 2,601 gross long lots against 710 gross short in the non-risk-reducing book at 23 October, for a net long of 1,891 lots, up 44 on the week, across 89 holders. Tin's longs represent 10.71% of open interest and its shorts 2.92%, for combined gross exposure of 13.63%.
LME base metals, Investment Funds gross exposure as % of open interest
Combined
Zinc
52.50%
Lead
38.71%
Nickel
27.28%
Aluminium
23.59%
Copper
18.75%
Tin
13.63%
That is the smallest reported non-risk-reducing Investment Fund footprint relative to open interest among the six LME base metals, and zinc's is roughly four times larger. It is context on the scale of one participant category's reported placement and no more. It does not establish that financial flows cannot move tin's price — that depends on marginal orders, liquidity, concentration and market depth rather than on the size of a reported gross position — and it does not make tin's curve a more reliable guide to physical conditions than another metal's.
Lot sizes are also not uniform: tin trades in five-tonne lots against 25 for aluminium, copper, zinc and lead, so its 2,601 lots represent roughly 13,005 tonnes of contained metal and cannot be set against another contract's lot count.
Outlook
The immediate question is whether the contango holds. One session's structural change, driven entirely by the cash leg, is thin evidence; a return to backwardation would suggest 29 October repriced a day's nearby demand rather than the market's view of availability.
The second is whether stocks stabilise. At 4,020 tonnes, twenty above the 2026 low and 53.1% below the end-June level, inventory is low enough that a continued drawdown would pull against the contango, and a rise in cancelled warrants from 330 tonnes would be the earlier signal.
The third is whether Chinese conversion recovers. The 27.11% rate is a week older than the price and stock data, so the next survey is the test — both of the level and of whether SMM's stated reason shifts from raw materials towards margins, which would change how long the gap persists.
Key Risks
The relationship between concentrate flows and refined output is not established. Recovering Chinese ore imports and low surveyed smelter utilisation are both observed, but no causal link between them is demonstrated in the available data, and they are measured over different periods.
The smelter observation is a week older than the market data. The 27.11% rate covers the week to 23 October, while the curve and stock readings are for 29 October. Treating them as simultaneous would overstate how closely production and pricing are tracking each other.
One session does not establish a structure. The contango appeared on 29 October after twelve backwardated or flat sessions and came entirely from the cash leg. It may not persist.
Stocks are close to their 2026 low. At 4,020 tonnes against a year's low of 4,000, a modest further drawdown could restore the backwardation regardless of the concentrate position upstream.
Myanmar's restart is uneven and its terms are estimates. Dewatering of the deeper workings is incomplete, the roughly 35% combined levy and tax-in-kind is an ITA estimate of cost share rather than a breakeven, and the RMB 350,000 per tonne figure sits inside a conditional export scenario rather than guaranteeing shipment volumes.
Company and estimate figures are not market figures. PT Timah's first-half recovery does not establish the direction of total Indonesian supply, and the CRU production and consumption figures are quoted in a producer's announcement, cover the six months to June, and are not an independently verified October balance.
Intelligence Monitoring Points
The nearby curve and stocks: whether the $75 contango persists with the cash leg still leading the spread, whether the 4,020-tonne balance holds above the 2026 low of 4,000, and whether the 330-tonne cancelled position rises as a share of the total.
Chinese operating rates: the next survey after the week to 23 October, both for the level against 27.11% and for whether the stated constraint shifts from raw materials towards margins.
Myanmar ore flows: whether Chinese gross ore imports hold the first half's pace of nearly 40,000 tonnes, and whether the ITA's conditional 20,000-tonne contained-tin scenario is tracking.
Indonesian exports: whether monthly national refined shipments build on August's 4,670.54 tonnes, and whether PT Timah's 30,000-tonne annual target is reaffirmed in its second-half reporting.
Refined balance estimates: whether CRU or other published balances extend the first-half 5,720-tonne shortfall into the second half, and whether Investment Fund combined gross exposure moves from 13.63% of open interest.
FAQ
Is tin in backwardation or contango?
Contango, as of 29 October, when cash settled at $50,400 against $50,475 for three-month metal. That was the first contango since 12 October, following twelve sessions of backwardation or parity in which the cash premium reached $350 on 28 October.
Why did the curve flip?
Through the cash leg. Cash settlement fell $1,300 or 2.51% between 28 and 29 October while three-month metal fell $875 or 1.70%, so the premium for immediacy was withdrawn rather than forward availability improving.
No. Stocks were 4,020 tonnes on 29 October, down 15 tonnes on the day; the 35-tonne increase often attributed to that date was the 28 October movement. Stocks are 53.1% below their 30 June level of 8,575 tonnes and twenty tonnes above the 2026 low.
Has the Myanmar supply disruption ended?
Man Maw has restarted, described by the International Crisis Group in September as a steady but uneven ramp-up, and Chinese gross ore imports from Myanmar reached nearly 40,000 tonnes in the first half of 2026, above the whole of 2025. Dewatering of the deeper workings is incomplete, so the restart is in progress.
Is Indonesian supply recovering?
PT Timah reported a substantial first-half recovery, ore production up 74.8% and refined output up 58.2%, and national monthly refined exports reached 4,670.54 tonnes in August. One company's figures do not establish the direction of total national supply.
Is the global tin market in deficit?
CRU estimates quoted by PT Timah put first-half global refined production at 173,536 tonnes against consumption of 179,256 tonnes, a shortfall of 5,720 tonnes — an estimate reported at one remove, covering the six months to June rather than October.
Data and Source Note
LME tin cash settlement prices, three-month prices and daily stock balances for 12 to 29 October 2026 are from the published settlement series. Cash and three-month figures on that series correspond to the exchange's official offer basis; the official bid basis for 29 October gives cash at $50,390 against three-month at $50,450, a $60 contango against the $75 shown on the settlement basis. Both describe the same structure. Official prices are struck in the second ring and are not the same observation as closing prices.
LME stock figures are daily balances. The exchange's published summary for 29 October shows an opening stock of 4,035 tonnes, which is the balance carried in from 28 October, alongside a warrant breakdown of 3,690 live and 330 cancelled that sums to the 29 October position of 4,020 tonnes; the two figures describe different moments and are not inconsistent. The 2026 opening balance of 5,415 tonnes, the peak of 9,025 tonnes and the low of 4,000 tonnes are from the same daily series. The 30 June balance of 8,575 tonnes is as reported in PT Timah's first-half announcement.
The combined Yunnan and Jiangxi operating rate of 27.11% is an SMM survey figure for the week to 23 October 2026 and is one week older than the price and stock observations. The SMM #1 tin average of ¥385,850 per tonne is a Chinese domestic assessment quoted in renminbi and inclusive of domestic tax; it is not converted and no arbitrage against the LME price is inferred.
Positioning figures are from the LME MiFID II Weekly Commitments of Traders report, Investment Funds non-risk-reducing classification, positions dated 23 October 2026 and published 27 October. Open-interest percentages are those published by the exchange, and combined gross percentages add the long and short shares; they are not a measure of contract ownership, market share or price influence. LME lot sizes are not uniform — 25 tonnes for aluminium, copper, zinc and lead, six for nickel and five for tin — so lot counts are not aggregated or compared across contracts.
Myanmar figures are from International Tin Association reporting on the Wa dewatering arrangement and from International Crisis Group analysis published 10 September 2026. The roughly 35% combined burden and the RMB 350,000 per tonne price level are ITA estimates within a conditional export scenario, not measured breakevens or thresholds. Chinese ore import volumes are gross ore weight and are not comparable with contained-tin figures. PT Timah's first-half production, sales, realised price and the CRU production and consumption estimates are from the company's announcement for the six months to June 2026; the CRU figures are quoted at one remove and are not independently verified. Indonesian monthly refined export volumes are Ministry of Trade data as reported by SMM. The Bisie share of global production and the 2026 production and demand growth rates are Coface estimates published 5 February 2026, which predate Indonesia's recorded recovery.
This document is published by Bloodstone Research for informational and institutional research purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice, an investment recommendation, an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument, commodity or security, or a forecast of future performance. Market conditions and data may change without notice. Readers should conduct their own analysis and, where appropriate, seek independent professional advice before making investment decisions. For institutional enquiries contact research@bloodstonecapital.co.uk.
