Commodities27 October 2026 · 2,833 words · 13 min read
US Crop Intelligence — Winter Wheat Closes Planting Gap as Corn Harvest Recovers
usdacornsoybeanssorghumwheatcottonoctober-2026
US winter-wheat planting has nearly caught up with its seasonal average and soybean harvesting has moved ahead of normal, while corn reversed two weeks of widening delays. Sorghum now carries the widest harvest deficit, and the gaps that remain are concentrated in a handful of states rather than spread nationally.
TL;DR
Corn: Harvesting advanced 16 percentage points to 60%, narrowing the deficit against the five-year average from eight points to six.
Soybeans: Harvesting reached 79%, up 15 points and two points ahead of normal, reversing the previous week's one-point deficit.
Sorghum: Harvesting reached 56% against a 69% average. The 13-point deficit is the widest among the principal crops, and it widened further in Kansas and Nebraska.
Winter wheat: Planting advanced to 76%, one point behind normal, with emergence at 53%, also one point behind.
Regional wheat: Oklahoma remains 18 points behind on planting and 15 on emergence, though both gaps narrowed. Ohio closed from 24 points behind to ten.
Cotton: Harvesting reached 52%, seven points ahead of normal, while Oklahoma condition deteriorated to 63% poor or very poor.
Fieldwork: Iowa recorded 6.4 suitable days against 4.6, and national topsoil moisture tightened for a second consecutive week.
US Crop Dashboard
Indicator
18 Oct
25 Oct
5-year avg.
Gap
Corn harvested
44%
60%
66%
−6 pp
Soybeans harvested
64%
79%
77%
+2 pp
Sorghum mature
87%
93%
97%
−4 pp
Sorghum harvested
46%
56%
69%
−13 pp
Winter wheat planted
63%
76%
77%
−1 pp
Winter wheat emerged
39%
53%
54%
−1 pp
Cotton bolls opening
85%
89%
92%
−3 pp
Cotton harvested
41%
52%
45%
+7 pp
Source: USDA NASS, Crop Progress, released 26 October 2026 for the week ended 25 October. Gaps compare progress with the corresponding five-year average; changes are percentage points. USDA no longer publishes national Corn Mature or Soybeans Dropping Leaves observations; the final figures for those stages, dated 18 October, were 95% against a 96% average and 96% against 97%.
The national picture has changed appreciably. Corn's deficit narrowed after widening for two weeks, soybeans crossed above their seasonal average, and winter-wheat planting recovered from six points behind normal to one. Sorghum moved the other way: harvesting accelerated in absolute terms, but the deficit widened because the seasonal pace advanced faster.
Corn: Harvest Deficit Narrows as Field Access Improves
Corn harvesting advanced from 44% to 60%, a 16-point weekly increase against 11 points in the preceding report. The five-year average rose from 52% to 66%, so the national deficit narrowed from eight points to six. That reverses the deterioration documented in Bloodstone Research's 20 October edition, when the shortfall had widened for a second consecutive week despite continued harvesting.
The state figures show both the improvement and its limits.
State
18 Oct
25 Oct
5-year avg.
Gap
Iowa
26%
47%
67%
−20 pp
South Dakota
29%
44%
62%
−18 pp
Michigan
13%
28%
43%
−15 pp
Ohio
21%
35%
46%
−11 pp
Nebraska
37%
55%
64%
−9 pp
Minnesota
38%
65%
71%
−6 pp
Wisconsin
24%
42%
43%
−1 pp
Illinois
63%
74%
73%
+1 pp
Indiana
46%
61%
59%
+2 pp
Source: USDA NASS, Corn Harvested — Selected States.
Iowa advanced 21 points but still carries the widest state deficit in the release. The largest improvements came from states that were materially delayed a week ago: Minnesota advanced 27 points and cut its deficit from 15 to six, while Wisconsin advanced 18 points to within one point of normal.
Fieldwork conditions improved markedly across the same geography. Iowa recorded 6.4 days suitable for fieldwork against 4.6 the preceding week, Ohio 6.6 against 4.0, Michigan 6.9 against 4.9 and Illinois 6.6 against 5.0, while Iowa's topsoil surplus fell from 24% to 13% as adequate rose from 73% to 81%. Those observations support a field-access explanation, though they do not establish that weather was the only constraint: the 18 October report recorded substantial crop-development deficits in Michigan, at 62% mature against an 89% average, and Ohio, at 78% against 93%. USDA has since discontinued the national maturity series, so that comparison cannot be extended.
National corn condition held at 56% good or excellent, with the poor or very poor share rising from 17% to 18% — a modest deterioration that should not be read as a change in final production. The conclusion is narrower than a complete recovery: national delays are easing, but substantial acreage remains unharvested in Iowa, South Dakota and Michigan.
Soybeans: Harvest Moves Ahead of Normal
Soybean harvesting advanced 15 points to 79%, exceeding the five-year average of 77%. Last week's report showed the national harvest one point behind normal, so the latest release confirms the recovery has continued beyond closing the earlier deficit.
The advance was broad. Iowa moved from 57% to 78%, a 21-point increase, though it remains six points behind its average of 84%, and Nebraska rose from 52% to 75%, seven points below normal. Michigan recorded the largest single advance, from 37% to 69%, moving seven points ahead of average, while Illinois reached 81% against 77%, Indiana 75% against 72% and Wisconsin 87% against 76%. The recovery is wide enough to put the national aggregate ahead of normal despite remaining delays in Iowa, Nebraska and Kansas.
This is a meaningful change in the near-term physical picture, because a larger share of the crop has been taken and less acreage is exposed to further interruptions in fieldwork. Harvested acreage is not grain delivered into commercial channels, however, so the report establishes that harvesting is ahead of benchmark without establishing any change in yield or availability.
Sorghum: The Largest Deficit Widens in the Central Plains
Sorghum harvesting advanced ten points to 56% while the five-year average reached 69%, widening the national deficit from 12 points to 13. Maturity reached 93%, four points behind normal, so delayed harvesting remains more pronounced than delayed crop development at the aggregate level.
The state detail is the more important part of the release, because the national figure conceals movement in both directions.
State
25 Oct harvested
5-year avg.
Gap
Gap 18 Oct
Kansas
40%
65%
−25 pp
−23 pp
Nebraska
35%
59%
−24 pp
−21 pp
South Dakota
51%
70%
−19 pp
−27 pp
Oklahoma
66%
56%
+10 pp
+14 pp
6 States
56%
69%
−13 pp
−12 pp
Source: USDA NASS, Sorghum Harvested — Selected States. Colorado was 45% harvested against a 54% average and Texas 95% against 97%.
Kansas and Nebraska are the substantive finding. Both recorded further weekly progress and both fell further behind, so in a report otherwise characterised by closing gaps the two largest sorghum states moved the other way. South Dakota is the counterpoint, narrowing from last week's widest deficit of 27 points to 19.
Maturity data support that rather than replacing it: Kansas was 88% mature against a 95% average and Nebraska 89% against 96%, so delayed development contributes alongside delayed harvesting in both. Sorghum attracts less attention than corn or soybeans, but it remains this release's clearest example of harvest activity running materially behind the seasonal norm.
Winter-wheat planting advanced 13 points to 76%, reducing the national deficit from six points to one, while emergence increased 14 points to 53%, also one point behind its average. Both measures have moved substantially closer to normal.
State
Planted
Avg.
Gap
Emerged
Avg.
Gap
Kansas
80%
79%
+1 pp
48%
56%
−8 pp
Oklahoma
51%
69%
−18 pp
32%
47%
−15 pp
Ohio
68%
78%
−10 pp
48%
47%
+1 pp
Texas
70%
70%
0 pp
55%
46%
+9 pp
National
76%
77%
−1 pp
53%
54%
−1 pp
Source: USDA NASS, Winter Wheat Planted and Emerged — Selected States. Nebraska (95% planted, 80% emerged) and Colorado (98%, 68%) were at or ahead of their planting averages.
Kansas drove much of the national improvement, planting advancing 20 points to move one point ahead of its historical pace. Its emergence deficit also narrowed, from 13 points to eight, so the recovery is not yet fully reflected in established crop.
Oklahoma remains the most delayed state but is no longer static: planting advanced from 37% to 51% and emergence from 18% to 32%, narrowing the deficits from 22 points to 18 and from 18 to 15. It is still the weakest establishment picture in a major hard red winter wheat region, and improving more slowly than the states around it. Ohio made the larger gain, planting advancing 30 points to close from 24 points behind to ten, with emergence now one point ahead of average — indicating rapid establishment on recently planted acreage.
The distinction between the two measures is central to assessing a crop intended for harvest in 2027: planting establishes that sowing has taken place, emergence that seedlings have appeared, and neither establishes root development, winter survival or yield potential. Oklahoma's delays remain relevant because later establishment leaves less time before dormancy. The release therefore removes most of the national planting concern without resolving the regional one.
Cotton: Harvest Accelerates as Oklahoma Condition Deteriorates
Cotton harvesting advanced 11 points to 52%, seven points ahead of its five-year average, while boll opening reached 89%, three points behind normal. Development and completed harvesting consequently sit on opposite sides of their respective benchmarks.
Texas reached 55% harvested against a normal 43%, Mississippi 83% against 68% and Arkansas 81% against 71%, while Oklahoma remained behind at 17% against 27%. National condition weakened, good or excellent falling from 35% to 33% with poor or very poor unchanged at 37%.
The regional condition detail matters more than the national rating. Texas reported 18% good or excellent against 52% poor or very poor, broadly unchanged on the week. Oklahoma deteriorated further, to 63% poor or very poor from 59%, with only 7% good or excellent — the weakest profile in the release and worse than Texas. The picture is therefore mixed, with harvesting ahead of normal while the two largest areas of weak condition show no improvement and one is worsening.
The Physical Picture
Soil moisture underlies the week's improvement and is worth watching in its own right. Nationally, topsoil rated short or very short rose from 34% to 38%, adequate fell from 59% to 57% and surplus from 7% to 5% — a second consecutive week of drying that aided Corn Belt fieldwork. The distribution is extreme in the Delta, where Arkansas reported 67% of topsoil very short, Mississippi 62% and Louisiana 61%.
The remaining constraints are concentrated rather than national: Iowa and South Dakota corn, widening Kansas and Nebraska sorghum deficits, and Oklahoma, which is weakest in both the winter-wheat and cotton condition tables. That does not establish a change in the production outlook, because Crop Progress measures field activity rather than output. It does establish that immediate concerns have shifted from national delays to specific crops and regions.
Outlook
The next release will test whether improved field access keeps reducing the corn deficit and whether Kansas and Nebraska sorghum stop falling further behind. For winter wheat, emergence and early condition become more important as planting completes. Soybean harvesting is near completion nationally, making remaining regional delays less significant to the progress measure, while in cotton the condition ratings now matter more than the harvest pace.
Key Risks
Regional delays. National averages conceal substantial unfinished acreage in important producing states, and movement in both directions within the same aggregate.
Winter establishment. Near-normal planting does not guarantee adequate development before dormancy, and emergence lags planting by design.
Harvest versus supply. Harvest completion does not quantify commercial deliveries or marketable inventories.
Condition versus yield. Condition ratings are subjective observational estimates, not measurements of final production.
Discontinued series. National corn maturity and soybean leaf-drop observations are no longer published, so development and harvest progress cannot be compared nationally.
Historical comparisons. Five-year averages are seasonal benchmarks rather than forecasts, and direct 2025 weekly comparisons are marked unavailable.
Intelligence Monitoring Points
Corn: whether the national six-point deficit narrows further and Iowa recovers from 47% harvested.
Soybeans: whether the harvest maintains its lead over normal as completion approaches.
Sorghum: whether Kansas and Nebraska stop widening from 25-point and 24-point deficits.
Winter wheat: whether Kansas emergence closes the remaining eight points and Oklahoma continues narrowing from 18 and 15.
Cotton: whether Oklahoma condition stabilises after deteriorating to 63% poor or very poor.
Soil moisture: whether national topsoil continues drying and whether Delta readings deteriorate further.
How much US corn had been harvested by 25 October 2026?USDA reported 60% complete, six percentage points behind the five-year average of 66%.
Is the soybean harvest ahead of normal? Yes. Harvesting reached 79% against an average of 77%, having been one point behind a week earlier.
How far behind is sorghum harvesting? 56% against a normal 69%, a 13-point deficit. Kansas and Nebraska fell further behind, to 25 and 24 points.
Has winter-wheat planting caught up? Almost — 76% against a 77% average. Oklahoma remains 18 points behind, though narrowed from 22.
Why is there no corn maturity figure this week?USDA discontinued the national Corn Mature and Soybeans Dropping Leaves series for the season. The final observations, dated 18 October, were 95% and 96% against averages of 96% and 97%.
What changed in cotton? Harvesting advanced to 52%, seven points ahead of normal, while national good or excellent fell to 33% and Oklahoma deteriorated to 63% poor or very poor.
⸻
Data and source note: All progress, condition, fieldwork and moisture figures are from the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service, Crop Progress, released 26 October 2026 for the week ended 25 October 2026. Previous-week observations refer to the week ended 18 October 2026 as reported in the same release. Changes and gaps are expressed in percentage points. USDA publishes official 2021–25 five-year averages referring to the corresponding reporting week; October 2025 observations are marked unavailable, so direct previous-year comparisons are omitted. The national corn maturity and soybean leaf-drop series are not in this release, and the 18 October observations cited for those stages are identified by date rather than presented as current. National figures cover USDA's designated producing states, with coverage differing by crop: 18 states representing 93% of 2025 corn harvested acreage, 18 states and 96% for soybeans, 15 states and 99% for cotton, six states and 100% for sorghum, and 18 states representing 90% of winter wheat planted acreage. Days suitable for fieldwork and moisture conditions are weighted by cropland acreage from the Census of Agriculture. Condition ratings are subjective observational estimates from approximately 3,600 non-probability survey respondents. Harvest progress, planting, emergence, condition, fieldwork days and soil moisture are distinct measures and should not be read as estimates of yield or commercial supply. Estimates are subject to revision in the following week's report.
This document is published by Bloodstone Research for informational and institutional research purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice, an investment recommendation, an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument, commodity or security, or a forecast of future performance. Market conditions and data may change without notice. Readers should conduct their own analysis and, where appropriate, seek independent professional advice before making investment decisions. For institutional enquiries contact research@bloodstonecapital.co.uk.
