Commodities20 October 2026 · 2,531 words · 12 min read
US Crop Intelligence — Corn Harvest Falls Further Behind as Soybeans Catch Up
usdacornsoybeanssorghumwheatoctober-2026
US corn harvesting reached 44% in the week ended 18 October, eight percentage points behind its five-year average, while soybean harvesting recovered to within one point of normal. Sorghum carries the widest harvest deficit among the major crops, and the reasons for the corn delay differ materially by state.
TL;DR
Corn: Harvesting reached 44%, up 11 percentage points on the week but eight points behind the five-year average of 52%. The deficit widened from six points.
Soybeans: Harvesting advanced 18 points to 64%, just one point below the 65% average. The earlier national deficit has almost disappeared.
Sorghum: Harvesting reached 46% against a 58% average, a twelve-point deficit and the widest among the major crops examined here.
Iowa: Corn harvesting was only 26% complete against a 50% average, while soybean harvesting reached 57% against 74%.
Winter wheat: Planting advanced to 63%, six points behind normal. Emergence reached 39%, four points below average.
Cotton: Harvesting increased to 41%, four points ahead of normal, although 37% of the crop remained in poor or very poor condition.
Fieldwork: Ohio recorded 4.0 suitable days and Iowa 4.6, down from 5.6 and 5.5 respectively. Reduced field access coincided with substantial corn harvest delays.
US Crop Dashboard
Indicator
11 Oct
18 Oct
5-year avg
Gap
Corn mature
91%
95%
96%
−1pp
Corn harvested
33%
44%
52%
−8pp
Soybeans dropping leaves
92%
96%
97%
−1pp
Soybeans harvested
46%
64%
65%
−1pp
Sorghum mature
80%
87%
92%
−5pp
Sorghum harvested
40%
46%
58%
−12pp
Winter wheat planted
51%
63%
69%
−6pp
Winter wheat emerged
27%
39%
43%
−4pp
Cotton bolls opening
82%
85%
89%
−4pp
Cotton harvested
31%
41%
37%
+4pp
Source: USDA NASS Crop Progress, released 19 October 2026 for the week ended 18 October. Five-year averages refer to the current reporting week. Changes and gaps are expressed in percentage points.
US corn harvesting advanced from 33% to 44% during the reporting week, an 11-percentage-point increase. The five-year average for this stage of October is 52%, however, leaving the harvest eight points behind normal against a six-point deficit a week earlier. The national shortfall has therefore widened for a second consecutive week even as harvesting has accelerated in absolute terms, extending a sequence that ran from four points behind on 4 October to six on 11 October.
Corn maturity reached 95% nationally, only one point below its five-year average. The national maturity figure suggests that delayed fieldwork is an important constraint, although Michigan and Ohio also show substantial crop-development deficits. Field access cannot be identified as the sole explanation.
The geographic distribution is concentrated rather than uniform. Iowa had harvested 26% of its corn against a five-year average of 50%, a 24-point deficit. Michigan stood at 13% against 31%, Minnesota at 38% against 53%, South Dakota at 29% against 47%, Ohio at 21% against 33% and Nebraska at 37% against 48%. Elsewhere the picture reverses: Illinois had harvested 63% against a 58% average, Indiana matched its historical pace at 46%, and North Dakota was six points ahead at 42%.
The underlying reasons differ between the delayed states, and the maturity figures separate them. Iowa's crop is 98% mature against a 98% average, so its 24-point harvest deficit is not explained by crop development at all. Michigan, by contrast, is 62% mature against an 89% average and Ohio 78% against 93% — development deficits of 27 and 15 points respectively, which account for a substantial part of their harvest shortfalls independently of weather.
Field access is nevertheless a measurable constraint in the same states. Ohio recorded 4.0 days suitable for fieldwork during the week, Iowa 4.6, Michigan 4.9, Missouri 4.9 and Illinois 5.0, against 5.6, 5.5, 6.3, 6.5 and 6.4 respectively the week before. Iowa reported 24% of topsoil moisture as surplus and 73% as adequate, consistent with wetter field conditions and reduced opportunities for harvesting.
Crop condition was unchanged at 56% good or excellent, with 27% fair and 17% poor or very poor. Within that total, good slipped a point to 43% while excellent rose a point to 13%. The stability provides no evidence of broad deterioration in the crop still in the field.
Soybeans: National Harvest Recovers to Within One Point of Normal
Soybean harvesting advanced 18 percentage points to 64% against a five-year average of 65%. The improvement continues a rapid recovery from the beginning of October, when harvesting was eight points behind normal; that deficit narrowed to four points by 11 October and now stands at one. Leaf drop reached 96%, also one point below its historical benchmark, so national development and completed fieldwork have converged with their normal seasonal levels at the same time.
Regional disparities remain material despite the national convergence. Iowa's soybean harvest advanced from 31% to 57%, a 26-point weekly increase, but remains 17 points behind its five-year average of 74%. Nebraska recorded an identical 26-point weekly advance to reach 52% against a 71% average. Michigan stood at 37% against 51%, Ohio at 48% against 59%, and Minnesota at 82%, six points behind normal.
Several states have moved ahead of their historical pace. Illinois reached 66% against 62%, North Dakota 79% against 73%, Wisconsin 72% against 63% and Arkansas 87% against 69%. The national recovery therefore reflects broad progress across the producing regions rather than a few states offsetting the rest.
The contrast with corn is pronounced, and the two crops face the same weather in the same states. That they have diverged so sharply reflects the earlier soybean harvest window and the speed at which the crop can be taken once conditions allow. The convergence does not establish a change in final soybean production, but it materially reduces the earlier national harvest delay as a near-term physical-market consideration.
Sorghum: The Widest Deficit Among the Major Crops
Sorghum harvesting reached 46% against a five-year average of 58%, a twelve-point deficit that is half again as wide as corn's and the largest among the major crops examined here. Maturity stood at 87% against 92%, so development is also behind, though less severely than harvesting.
The state-level detail is more severe than the national figure suggests. Kansas had harvested 30% against a 53% average, a 23-point deficit. South Dakota stood at 32% against 59%, a 27-point shortfall, and Nebraska at 24% against 45%. Colorado reached 30% against 38%. Only Oklahoma, at 61% against 47%, and Texas, at 90% against 94%, are at or ahead of their normal pace.
Condition is weaker than for the other row crops. USDA rated 26% of the sorghum crop good or excellent against 34% poor or very poor, with 40% fair. Kansas reported 37% of its crop poor or very poor and Colorado 46%.
Sorghum is a smaller market than corn or soybeans and its progress figures attract correspondingly less attention. The scale of the deficit nevertheless makes it the clearest example in this release of harvest activity running behind the seasonal norm, and the affected states overlap substantially with those showing the largest corn delays.
Winter-wheat planting reached 63%, up 12 percentage points on the week against a five-year average of 69%, narrowing the deficit from seven points to six. Emergence increased from 27% to 39% against a 43% average, narrowing its own deficit from five points to four. Both measures are improving, and the weekly advances demonstrate that planting remains active.
The regional distribution matters more than the national figure for a crop intended for harvest in 2027. Kansas reported 60% planted against a 69% average with emergence at 30% against 43%. Oklahoma is considerably further behind, with 37% planted against 59% and 18% emerged against 36% — deficits of 22 and 18 percentage points respectively in a major hard red winter wheat region. Ohio also remains substantially behind at 38% planted against 62%, while Michigan reached 51% against 61%.
Elsewhere establishment is proceeding normally or better. Colorado and Nebraska each reached 90% or more planted, broadly matching their averages, Washington stood at 96% against 90% and Oregon at 81% against 66%.
Planting and emergence should be distinguished in interpreting these figures. A delayed planting schedule compresses the establishment period before winter dormancy, but the progress data do not determine whether that will affect crop survival or eventual yields.
Cotton: Harvest Ahead of Average, Conditions Remain Weak
Cotton harvesting advanced ten percentage points to 41%, four points ahead of its five-year average of 37%. Boll opening reached 85% against an 89% average, leaving crop development four points behind normal even as harvesting runs ahead of schedule — a combination that reflects the geographic distribution of production rather than unusually rapid fieldwork.
Texas, the largest producing state, reached 46% harvested against a 39% average. Mississippi stood at 70% against 58%, Arkansas at 63% against 53% and Tennessee at 46% against 35%. Oklahoma remained well behind at 9% against 18%, with Kansas at 12% against 21%.
National condition improved marginally to 35% good or excellent from 34%, while 37% remained poor or very poor against 36% the previous week. The regional distribution is the more important figure: Texas reported 52% of its crop poor or very poor and Oklahoma 59%. Cotton therefore presents a different combination of signals from the other crops, with harvesting ahead of its normal national schedule while a substantial share of the crop is in weak condition. Faster harvesting does not establish stronger yields or fibre quality, both of which depend on realised production rather than progress percentages.
The Physical Picture
The release reinforces a widening separation between crops that were all behind normal at the start of October. Soybean harvesting has recovered from eight points behind to one, corn has moved the other way from four points to eight, sorghum sits furthest behind at twelve, and cotton alone is running ahead of its average.
Corn's position is the most striking because national maturity is almost complete, at 95% against a 96% average, while only 44% has been harvested against 52% normally. The state detail shows that gap has more than one cause: in Iowa the crop is fully mature and the constraint is field access, while in Michigan and Ohio the crop itself is weeks behind schedule. The national averages conceal both the scale of individual state deficits and the different reasons behind them.
Outlook
The next report will test whether corn harvesting begins narrowing its eight-point deficit. Iowa's progress depends on field access, while Michigan and Ohio need crop development to advance before harvesting can follow. Sorghum faces a wider gap concentrated in Kansas, Nebraska and South Dakota.
For soybeans the national recovery has substantially reduced the earlier timing concern, leaving the question of whether Iowa and Nebraska close their remaining state-level deficits. Winter-wheat monitoring should focus on the relationship between planting and emergence across Kansas and Oklahoma. Cotton's principal uncertainty is the persistence of weak condition ratings in Texas and Oklahoma rather than the national pace of harvesting.
These observations concern progress and condition. They are not revisions to production forecasts.
Key Risks
Harvest timing. Delayed corn and sorghum harvesting affects the timing of physical deliveries and leaves crops exposed to further field conditions, but the progress figures do not quantify production losses.
Regional concentration. National averages conceal substantial differences between producing states. Iowa's corn deficit is three times the national shortfall while Illinois is ahead of normal.
Attribution. Reduced days suitable for fieldwork coincided with the largest harvest deficits, and maturity data distinguish Iowa's position from Michigan's and Ohio's. These are consistent observations rather than a measured causal relationship, and other factors may contribute.
Historical benchmarks.USDA publishes official 2021–25 five-year averages. October 2025 observations are marked unavailable in the current report, so direct previous-year comparisons are omitted.
Winter-wheat establishment. Slower planting and emergence reduce the time available for autumn development, although subsequent growing conditions determine whether delays have lasting consequences.
Condition and yield. Weak cotton and sorghum condition ratings warrant attention, but the relationship between condition, harvested acreage and final production cannot be established from progress figures alone.
Intelligence Monitoring Points
Corn: whether the eight-point national deficit narrows, and whether Michigan and Ohio maturity advances.
Sorghum: whether the twelve-point deficit closes in Kansas, Nebraska and South Dakota.
Soybeans: whether the remaining one-point national shortfall disappears.
Winter wheat: planting and emergence in Kansas and Oklahoma.
Cotton: condition ratings in Texas and Oklahoma alongside continued harvesting.
How far behind is the US corn harvest?USDA reported 44% harvested by 18 October against a five-year average of 52%. The eight-percentage-point deficit widened from six points the previous week.
Has the US soybean harvest caught up? Almost. Harvesting reached 64% against a 65% average, with the national deficit narrowed from eight points at the start of October.
Which crop is furthest behind? Sorghum, at 46% harvested against a 58% average — a twelve-point deficit, wider than corn's eight.
Which states are most delayed in corn harvesting? Iowa was 26% harvested against a 50% average, Michigan 13% against 31%, South Dakota 29% against 47% and Minnesota 38% against 53%.
Why is corn behind when the crop is mature? Nationally it is, but not everywhere. Iowa's crop is 98% mature against a 98% average and its delay coincides with reduced days suitable for fieldwork. Michigan at 62% mature against 89% and Ohio at 78% against 93% have genuine development deficits as well.
Does slower harvesting imply a smaller crop? Not necessarily. Crop Progress measures field activity and development stages rather than final yield, and a production effect would require separate evidence.
Data and source note: All progress and condition figures are from the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service, Crop Progress, released 19 October 2026 for the week ended 18 October 2026. Previous-week observations refer to the week ended 11 October 2026. USDA publishes official 2021–25 five-year averages; October 2025 observations are marked unavailable in the current report, so direct previous-year comparisons are omitted. National figures cover USDA's designated producing states: 18 states representing 93% of 2025 corn harvested acreage, 18 states and 96% for soybeans, 15 states and 99% for cotton, six states and 100% for sorghum, and 18 states representing 90% of winter wheat planted acreage. Days suitable for fieldwork and moisture conditions are weighted by cropland acreage from the Census of Agriculture. Condition ratings are subjective observational estimates from approximately 3,600 non-probability survey respondents and are not final production measurements. Estimates are subject to revision in the following week's report.
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