US Agricultural Prices Intelligence — Farm Price Ratio Falls as Vegetables Outpace Grains

TL;DR

• Overall farm prices: The USDA prices-received index fell 1.7% in September to 133.2, despite the crop production index rising 3.7% to 117.5.
• Crops were uneven: The vegetable and melon index rose 27.0% while grain and oilseed rose 5.3% and the oilseed sub-index just 0.3%.
• Corn: Farmers received an average $4.81 per bushel, up 36 cents from August and 81 cents from September 2025.
• Soybeans and wheat: Soybeans reached $12.20 per bushel and all wheat $6.30, both above August and year-earlier levels.
• Livestock: The livestock production index declined 4.4% to 147.0, with lower cattle, hog, milk and egg prices.
• Input costs: The prices-paid index rose 0.4% to 160.5, while the ratio of prices received to prices paid fell to 83, from 85 in August and 87 a year earlier.

The September Price Board

The USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service released its October Agricultural Prices report on Friday 30 October, covering September 2026 observations. The publication measures prices actually received by US agricultural producers, alongside the prices paid for farm inputs and other production-related expenditures. These are national monthly farm-price estimates, not futures settlement prices or spot quotations at a particular delivery point.

Source: USDA NASS, Agricultural Prices, released 30 October 2026. Prices relate to September 2026; changes are calculated from published August 2026 and September 2025 values.

The table shows a pronounced difference between crop and livestock markets. Corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton and hay all recorded year-on-year increases, while cattle, hogs, milk and eggs were below their September 2025 levels. Market eggs fell furthest, down approximately 66% on the year from $1.93 per dozen.

That distinction matters because the USDA's aggregate index incorporates both prices and changes in the volume of commodities marketed. It is not a simple average of individual commodity price changes. USDA records decreased monthly movement for cattle, wheat, cotton and peaches in September, against increased marketings of soybeans, corn, calves and apples.

The Farm Price Ratio Deteriorates

The most consequential figure in the release is not an individual commodity price. It is the relationship between the overall prices-received index and the prices-paid index.

Source: USDA NASS, Agricultural Prices, 30 October 2026. The ratio is an index relationship, not a farm profit margin.

The overall prices-received index declined from 135.5 in August to 133.2 in September, a fall of 1.7%, while the prices-paid index increased from 159.9 to 160.5. Against September 2025, the received index was 0.5% higher and the paid index 5.2% higher. The ratio consequently fell from 87 a year earlier to 83.

That does not mean farmers retained 83 cents of profit for every dollar spent, nor that every farm experienced a decline in profitability. The index ratio is a measure of relative prices, not a calculation of enterprise-level costs, revenues or net income. Farm profitability also depends on yields, quantities sold, production mix, debt service, land costs and the timing of purchases and sales. The direction is nevertheless material: the purchasing power represented by aggregate farm receipts weakened relative to the costs captured in the prices-paid index, even as several major crop prices improved.

Crops: An Uneven Recovery

The crop production index rose 3.7% in September to 117.5, standing 15% above September 2025. That headline conceals a wide spread between its components.

Source: USDA NASS, Agricultural Prices, 30 October 2026.

Vegetables moved five times as far as grains and oilseeds. Head lettuce doubled from $26.40 to $52.80 per hundredweight, cauliflower rose from $54.40 to $120.00, and broccoli gained 35.8% to $105.00, although broccoli remained below its September 2025 level. USDA's own summary names lettuce ahead of corn among the commodities receiving higher prices. These are relative index movements rather than weighted contributions: establishing which component contributed most to the 3.7% crop-index increase would require USDA's index weights, which the release does not publish alongside these figures.

Grains nevertheless strengthened materially on an annual basis. The grain and oilseed index rose 5.3% to 88.2 and stood 20% above September 2025, with feed grain up 6.3% and food grain 5.0%. Corn reached $4.81 per bushel against $4.45 in August and $4.00 a year earlier, an 8.1% monthly and 20.3% annual increase. All wheat reached $6.30 against $6.23 and $4.76, an annual gain of approximately 32.4%. The underlying wheat classes did not move uniformly: hard red winter fell from $6.44 to $6.36 while soft red winter rose from $6.36 to $6.45 and hard red spring from $6.27 to $6.47, so the national all-wheat measure conceals different regional and class-specific developments.

Oilseeds were the flattest part of the crop complex. The oilseed index rose just 0.3% to 97.4, and soybeans gained 10 cents to $12.20, a monthly increase of 0.8% against an annual gain of approximately 22.9%. September coincides with the transition into the main US autumn harvest, and national averages are influenced by the timing and geographical composition of marketings as well as by the prices individual producers received. They should not be read as uniform increases across every state.

Livestock: The Other Side of the Agricultural Market

The livestock production index fell 4.4% in September to 147.0, leaving it 10% below its September 2025 level. Every component declined.

Source: USDA NASS, Agricultural Prices, 30 October 2026.

Beef cattle prices fell to $223 per hundredweight, down $8 from August and $15 from September 2025. Hogs declined more sharply in percentage terms, falling $5.70 to $64.80, a monthly reduction of approximately 8.1%. The all-milk price slipped to $19.50 per hundredweight, down 30 cents from August and 90 cents from a year earlier. Market eggs fell to 64.8 cents per dozen against 77.0 cents in August and $1.93 in September 2025.

The divergence matters for the overall farm price index. Rising crop prices provided support to crop producers, but falling livestock prices exerted downward pressure on the aggregate measure. It also complicates the interpretation of input costs, because grain prices represent revenue for crop farmers and feed costs for livestock producers. An increase in the corn price therefore has different implications depending on the structure of the operation. The release does not establish the net effect on individual livestock margins; it does show that prices received for every major livestock product weakened while the overall prices-paid index increased.

Input Costs: A Broad Index Still Rising

The prices-paid index for commodities and services, interest, taxes and farm wage rates — PPITW — increased 0.4% in September to 160.5. USDA identified higher prices for diesel, complete feeds, other services and concentrates as contributors, outweighing reductions in hay and forages, feeder cattle, feeder pigs and herbicides.

The index remained 5.2% above September 2025, a larger annual increase than the 0.5% rise in the overall prices-received index. That annual divergence is more informative than the modest monthly move. The index had retreated from 164.1 in May to 159.9 in August before rising again in September, so the latest reading does not represent uninterrupted cost inflation through 2026, but it does show the broad basket remaining elevated against a year earlier.

USDA also publishes the index by sector.

Source: USDA NASS, Agricultural Prices, 30 October 2026.

Both sector indices rose from August, and both remain approximately 5% above a year earlier. They are separately constructed series covering different expenditure baskets with different weights, so the gap between their levels does not establish that livestock operations face higher absolute costs than crop operations. What the two series do show is that neither sector saw its measured input costs ease in September, at the same time as livestock receipts fell across every category.

PPITW also covers more than direct crop inputs, incorporating interest, taxes and farm wage rates. It is consequently inappropriate to treat the index as a precise proxy for fertiliser, fuel or seed costs on a particular farm. The data support a narrower conclusion: the broad basket of prices paid by farmers increased in September and rose more rapidly over the preceding year than the aggregate prices they received.

What the Data Actually Tell Us

The September release shows three developments that should be considered separately.

The first is a recovery in national crop prices that was real but uneven. The crop production index rose 3.7% to 117.5 and stands 15% above a year earlier, but vegetables rose 27.0% against 5.3% for grains and oilseeds and 0.3% for oilseeds alone. Corn, wheat and soybeans were all above their August and September 2025 levels, and grains carry a substantial annual gain, yet they were not the strongest movers in the month.

The second is a broad weakening in livestock receipts, with every sub-index down and hogs falling 8.1%. The third is a deterioration in the relationship between agricultural selling prices and farm costs, with the received-to-paid ratio falling to 83 while both sector cost indices rose.

None of these findings cancels the others. Crop producers may benefit from stronger selling prices while livestock producers face a different revenue environment, and individual farms may experience materially different cost changes from those represented by national indices.

There is also a timing distinction worth stating. Agricultural Prices measures September receipts and costs despite being released at the end of October, so it should not be treated as a direct explanation for late-October futures positioning. The two datasets measure different activities over different periods. The value of the NASS report is that it provides a view of realised farm-market prices unavailable from futures settlements alone, which helps separate speculative price exposure from the prices received by producers in the physical economy.

The Bottom Line

September brought stronger prices across most of the US crop sector, but the improvement was neither uniform within crops nor broad enough to lift the overall agricultural prices-received index. Vegetables rose five times as far as grains and oilseeds, oilseeds barely moved, and livestock weakness more than offset the gains elsewhere.

The resulting decline in the received-to-paid ratio from 85 to 83 is the report's central finding. It points to weaker aggregate farm purchasing power relative to measured costs, without establishing the profitability of individual producers. Both sector prices-paid indices rose in the same month, so no part of the sector saw measured input costs ease.

For agricultural markets, the message is divergence rather than uniform recovery. Crop prices have strengthened at very different rates, livestock receipts have weakened across every category, and the relationship between farm selling prices and production-related costs remains an important constraint on the wider agricultural economy.

FAQ

What is the USDA Agricultural Prices report?

It is a monthly NASS publication covering prices received by US farmers for major agricultural commodities, prices paid for inputs and services, and related price indices.

Why did the overall farm price index fall when corn and wheat prices rose?

The index incorporates multiple agricultural products and their marketed quantities. In September, weaker livestock prices outweighed gains in crop prices at the aggregate level.

What does the prices-received-to-prices-paid ratio measure?

It compares the overall prices-received index with the broad prices-paid index. It is an indicator of relative price movements, not a measure of farm profit margins.

Were US grain prices higher than a year earlier?

Yes. September national average prices were 20.3% higher for corn, 22.9% higher for soybeans and approximately 32.4% higher for all wheat.

Are these the same prices as CBOT futures?

No. NASS estimates prices received by farmers through agricultural market transactions and other source data. Futures prices represent exchange-traded contracts with different delivery terms and timing.

When is the next Agricultural Prices report?

The USDA schedule lists 30 November 2026 at 3pm Eastern as the next release date.

Data and Source Note

This analysis uses USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service, Agricultural Prices, released 30 October 2026, with September 2026 observations and comparisons against August 2026 and September 2025.

Commodity prices are national averages received by producers. Indices use the USDA's 2011 base. Month-on-month and year-on-year percentage changes are taken from USDA where stated or calculated from published values, and rounded figures may produce minor differences. The egg price quoted is the market, or table, egg series rather than the all-eggs series.

The prices-received-to-prices-paid ratio is not a profit-margin measure. Changes in the prices-received aggregates reflect both price movements and changes in the volume and composition of commodities marketed. The crop-sector and livestock-sector prices-paid indices are separately constructed series covering different expenditure baskets and weights; their relative levels are not comparable as absolute costs. Sub-index movements described here are relative price changes and not weighted contributions to the aggregate indices, which would require USDA's index weights. Estimates may be revised.

Primary Sources

USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service — Agricultural Prices, released 30 October 2026

USDA Economic, Statistics and Market Information System — Agricultural Prices archive

USDA NASS — Prices Received Surveys and Indexes: methodology