USDA cut its 2026 US corn production forecast by 141 million bushels in the November World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, published at noon Eastern on 10 November. The entire reduction came from yield, with harvested acreage unchanged, and USDA removed 50 million bushels of corn demand in the same report, so ending stocks fell 91 million rather than 141 million. The figure that explains the market's response is not the comparison with October but the comparison with expectations: USDA came in below the trade consensus on corn production, corn stocks, soybean production and soybean stocks alike.
TL;DR
Corn production: 15.893 billion bushels against 16.034 billion in October, a reduction of 141 million, entirely on a 1.6 bushel yield cut to 179.6 with acreage unchanged at 88.5 million.
Demand absorbed a third of it: exports cut 25 million bushels to 3.275 billion and feed and residual use cut 25 million to 5.975 billion, leaving ending stocks down 91 million at 1.758 billion. Ethanol use was untouched.
USDA undershot the trade on both row crops: corn ending stocks came in 68 million bushels below the analyst average and soybean ending stocks 36 million below, which is the context for the price reaction.
Sorghum loosened while everything else tightened: production fell 17 million bushels to 274 million, but a 35-million-bushel cut to exports left ending stocks 8 million higher at 34 million.
Soybeans tightened on demand, not supply: production rose 12 million bushels to 4.574 billion while exports rose 25 million to 1.720 billion and seed use rose 3 million, cutting ending stocks 15 million to 300 million.
US wheat was unchanged: production held at 1.534 billion bushels and ending stocks rose 3 million to 743 million on lower food use. Global wheat ending stocks rose 4.78 million tonnes to 280.82 million.
The world corn balance moved the other way: global ending stocks rose 1.50 million tonnes to 281.94 million despite the smaller US crop.
Two price forecasts were cut, not one: corn's season-average farm price fell from $4.70 to $4.60 a bushel and wheat's from $6.30 to $6.20, in opposite stocks directions.
The market rose after the release: corn was trading 12 cents higher, soybeans 36 cents and wheat six cents, against one cent, unchanged and two cents before the noon publication.
The November Supply Revision
The structure of this release matters more than any single figure in it. USDA reduced the corn crop and reduced corn demand in the same document, and the two moved far enough in the same direction that the balance sheet tightened by substantially less than the production cut implies. Every production revision in the report came from yield, with planted and harvested acreage unchanged in corn, soybeans, wheat, sorghum and cotton, which is what a November report is for: the crop is largely in, and the agency is refining what came off the same ground rather than revising how much ground was cut.
Indicator
October
November
Change
Corn production, m bu
16,034
15,893
−141
Corn yield, bu/acre
181.2
179.6
−1.6
Corn ending stocks, m bu
1,849
1,758
−91
Corn farm price, $/bu
4.70
4.60
−0.10
Sorghum production, m bu
291
274
−17
Sorghum ending stocks, m bu
26
34
+8
Soybean production, m bu
4,562
4,574
+12
Soybean ending stocks, m bu
315
300
−15
Wheat production, m bu
1,534
1,534
unchanged
Wheat ending stocks, m bu
740
743
+3
Wheat farm price, $/bu
6.30
6.20
−0.10
Cotton production, m bales
13.44
13.18
−0.26
Cotton ending stocks, m bales
3.80
3.70
−0.10
USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, WASDE 677, released 10 November 2026, against WASDE 676 of 9 October. All figures are 2026/27 marketing year projections. Cotton is measured in 480-pound bales.
Corn: A Yield-Driven Cut, Partly Absorbed by Demand
The corn balance sheet reconciles completely, and where the demand cuts fell is as informative as their size.
US corn, million bushels
October
November
Change
Production
16,034
15,893
−141
Feed and residual use
6,000
5,975
−25
Food, seed and industrial
7,005
7,005
unchanged
Exports
3,300
3,275
−25
Total use
16,305
16,255
−50
Ending stocks
1,849
1,758
−91
USDAWASDE 677, 10 November 2026. Beginning stocks of 2,095 million bushels and imports of 25 million were unchanged.
Harvested acreage of 88.5 million acres multiplied by the 1.6 bushel reduction in yield gives approximately 142 million bushels against the 141 million reported, so the production cut is explained by yield with no acreage contribution. A 141-million-bushel reduction in supply then met 50 million bushels of reductions in use, and the difference of 91 million is the fall in ending stocks. Roughly a third of the supply cut was absorbed by USDA lowering its own demand expectations rather than passing through to inventories.
Feed and residual use and exports each lost 25 million bushels, while food, seed and industrial use was left entirely unchanged at 7.005 billion bushels, including ethanol at 5.650 billion. USDA reduced the two most price-sensitive and trade-exposed categories in the balance sheet and left the industrial demand base alone, which is a narrower demand downgrade than the headline 50 million bushels implies.
The international balance moved in the opposite direction to the domestic one. World corn ending stocks for 2026/27 were raised from 280.44 million tonnes to 281.94 million, an increase of 1.50 million tonnes, on higher production forecasts for Argentina and Brazil. A tighter US carryout therefore arrived alongside a marginally looser global one.
Managed Money held a net long of 8,795 contracts in corn as at Tuesday 3 November, close to neutral after two consecutive weeks of heavy reduction. Those positions predate this release by a week and are not evidence of any response to it.
Sorghum: A Deeper Cut and a Looser Balance
Sorghum is the commodity the headline figures obscure. It moved further than corn in percentage terms and finished in the opposite place.
US sorghum, million bushels
October
November
Change
Yield, bu/acre
55.7
52.4
−3.3
Production
291
274
−17
Feed and residual use
60
70
+10
Exports
160
125
−35
Ending stocks
26
34
+8
USDAWASDE 677, 10 November 2026. Harvested area was unchanged at 5.2 million acres.
The production cut of 17 million bushels is 5.8% of the October forecast against 0.9% for corn, and it is again entirely yield: 5.2 million harvested acres multiplied by the 3.3 bushel reduction gives approximately 17 million bushels. What distinguishes sorghum is the demand side. USDA cut projected exports by 35 million bushels, close to 22% of the October figure, and raised feed and residual use by only 10 million, so net demand fell 25 million bushels against a 17-million-bushel supply reduction and ending stocks rose 8 million to 34 million.
Sorghum is therefore the one crop in this release where a smaller harvest produced a looser balance sheet, and the mechanism is a projected export market contracting faster than the crop did. That matters for reading the companion crop-progress data, in which sorghum carried the largest harvest deficit against its seasonal average. The harvest shortfall and the production cut are consistent with one another, but neither is what moved the sorghum balance this month.
Soybeans moved in the opposite direction from corn on supply and the same direction on stocks. Higher projected exports were the principal reason carryout declined despite a larger crop, with two smaller use revisions completing the balance.
US soybeans, million bushels
October
November
Change
Production
4,562
4,574
+12
Crush
2,780
2,780
unchanged
Exports
1,695
1,720
+25
Seed
73
76
+3
Residual
39
38
−1
Total use
4,587
4,614
+27
Ending stocks
315
300
−15
USDAWASDE 677, 10 November 2026. Beginning stocks of 315 million bushels and imports of 25 million were unchanged.
The balance closes exactly. Supply rose 12 million bushels on production alone, total use rose 27 million on the 25-million export increase plus 3 million of additional seed use against 1 million less residual, and the 15-million-bushel reduction in ending stocks is the difference. Crush was unchanged at 2.780 billion bushels, so the entire commercial demand revision sits in the export line.
One point of arithmetic should be stated rather than left to trip the reader. USDA reports soybean yield rising from 53.1 to 53.3 bushels an acre on unchanged harvested acreage of 85.9 million, but multiplying those displayed figures gives 4,579 million bushels against the 4,574 million printed. The displayed yields and acreage are each rounded, and the difference between two rounded yields is not itself the revision. The printed production change of 12 million bushels is the authoritative figure.
The product balance tightened proportionally more than the bean balance. Projected soybean oil ending stocks fell from 1.797 billion pounds to 1.698 billion, a reduction of 99 million pounds or approximately 5.5%, with crush unchanged.
Wheat: Unchanged at Home, Looser Abroad
US wheat was the quietest part of the release domestically. Production held at 1.534 billion bushels on an unchanged yield of 48.1 bushels an acre and unchanged harvested acreage of 31.9 million, total supply was unchanged at 2.599 billion, and ending stocks rose 3 million bushels to 743 million on a 3-million-bushel reduction in projected food use to 957 million. Seed, feed and residual use and exports were all unchanged. That is as small as a revision gets in a balance sheet of this size, and it reconciles exactly.
The figure that matters is global, and it needs separating into its two parts. World wheat production for 2026/27 was raised from 822.39 million tonnes to 827.51 million, an increase of 5.12 million tonnes, on higher forecasts including Argentina and Australia. World ending stocks rose by rather less, from 276.04 million tonnes to 280.82 million, an increase of 4.78 million tonnes, so global use absorbed a small part of the additional supply and the remainder went to carryout. A looser global balance is a more material input to wheat pricing than a 3-million-bushel domestic stocks revision, and it arrives while Managed Money already holds net short positions in all three US wheat contracts as at 3 November, again predating the release.
Cotton: Lower Yield, Smaller Carryout
Cotton production fell 260,000 bales to 13.18 million, driven by a 15-pound reduction in yield to 775 pounds an acre against unchanged harvested acreage of 8.16 million. That reconciles: 8.16 million acres multiplied by 15 pounds, divided by 480 pounds a bale, gives approximately 255,000 bales.
US cotton, million 480-lb bales
October
November
Change
Production
13.44
13.18
−0.26
Total supply
17.60
17.33
−0.27
Domestic mill use
1.50
1.40
−0.10
Exports
12.30
12.30
unchanged
Total use
13.80
13.70
−0.10
Unaccounted
0.00
−0.07
−0.07
Ending stocks
3.80
3.70
−0.10
USDAWASDE 677, 10 November 2026. Beginning stocks of 4.15 million bales and imports of 0.01 million were unchanged.
The named supply and use changes alone do not produce the reported carryout, and the line that completes the balance is USDA's unaccounted residual. Total supply fell 270,000 bales while total use fell only 100,000, which would imply a 170,000-bale reduction in ending stocks. The unaccounted figure moved from zero to minus 70,000 bales, and because it is subtracted in the balance a negative value adds back to carryout, producing the reported 100,000-bale decline. Exports were held at 12.30 million bales throughout, so the entire domestic demand revision is the cut to mill use.
The Price Forecasts: Corn and Wheat Both Cut Ten Cents
USDA lowered its projected season-average farm price for corn from $4.70 to $4.60 a bushel alongside a tighter projected balance sheet, which is a contrast worth recording. The agency also reduced expected exports and feed use, but the release does not establish how much weight each assumption carried in the price revision, and a farm price forecast is an estimate of what producers will receive across the marketing year rather than a function of the ending-stocks figure.
The reason for caution sits in the same report. USDA cut the wheat season-average farm price by an identical ten cents, from $6.30 to $6.20, in a balance sheet where ending stocks rose rather than fell. Two forecasts moved the same distance in the same direction while the underlying stocks positions moved in opposite directions, which is direct evidence that these projections are not tracking the carryout revisions. The defensible statement is the narrow one: lower projected corn production did not translate into a higher USDA farm price estimate.
Market Reaction: Below Expectations on Both Crops
The comparison that explains the price response is not October against November but USDA against the trade.
Pre-report analyst averages from a Dow Jones survey reported on 10 November 2026. These are trade estimates, not USDA forecasts. The analyst range was 1.698 to 1.956 billion bushels for corn ending stocks and 280 to 363 million bushels for soybean ending stocks.
USDA undershot the consensus on all four measures, and on corn ending stocks it came in near the bottom of the published analyst range. That is a better explanation of the immediate reaction than the October comparison, because a crop smaller than last month but larger than the market feared would not be expected to rally.
The session divides at noon Eastern. Before the report corn was one cent higher, soybeans unchanged and wheat two cents higher. After it corn was trading 12 cents higher, soybeans 36 cents and wheat six cents. These are intraday observations following the release rather than settlement prices. The starting point gives the corn move its context: December Chicago corn had touched $4.3875 earlier in the session, a recent low, against a contract high of $5.4975 set on 2 September, so the contract came into the report roughly 20% below its early-September peak. Soybeans produced the largest move at 36 cents, consistent with soybean ending stocks showing the widest proportional shortfall against consensus of the four measures.
Key Risks
Yields are estimates, not measurements. November production figures are forecasts based on surveys and objective field measurements, not a count of the harvested crop, and they are revised in January and in subsequent annual reviews.
Displayed yields and acreage are rounded. Soybean production of 4,574 million bushels cannot be reproduced by multiplying the displayed 85.9 million acres by the displayed 53.3 bushel yield, which gives 4,579 million. The printed production and stocks figures govern, not products of rounded inputs.
Demand projections carry more uncertainty than production. Export, feed and residual figures for a season still in progress are projections against partial shipment and disappearance data and are revised monthly. Sorghum's 35-million-bushel export reduction and corn's 25-million-bushel reduction are both forecast revisions, not observed shortfalls.
A price forecast is not a market view. The season-average farm price projections are agency estimates of what producers will receive across the marketing year. Corn's and wheat's were each cut ten cents in the same report despite their stocks moving in opposite directions.
Positioning data predate this release and quoted price moves are intraday. All Managed Money figures here are as at Tuesday 3 November, a week before publication, and nothing here establishes how funds responded. The post-report price figures describe trading following the release, not settlement, and say nothing about subsequent direction.
Intelligence Monitoring Points
Corn export inspections and sales. The weekly shipment pace against the reduced 3.275-billion-bushel projection, which is the line carrying the demand downgrade.
Sorghum export sales. Whether the 125-million-bushel projection holds after a cut of close to 22% in a single month, the largest proportional demand revision in this report.
Soybean export sales. Whether the pace supports the raised 1.720-billion-bushel projection, now the line carrying the tighter carryout.
The CFTC report of 16 November. Positions as at Tuesday 10 November, the first observation that could reflect this release.
Global corn and wheat supply revisions. Whether the Argentine and Brazilian corn forecasts and the Argentine and Australian wheat forecasts hold, having added 1.50 and 5.12 million tonnes respectively this month.
The December WASDE, scheduled for 10 December. The next opportunity for the demand reductions in this release to be extended or reversed, and the last before January's full production revision.
FAQ
How much did USDA cut the US corn crop in November 2026?
By 141 million bushels, from 16.034 billion to 15.893 billion. The entire reduction came from yield, which fell 1.6 bushels an acre to 179.6, with harvested acreage unchanged at 88.5 million.
Why did corn ending stocks fall by less than production?
Because USDA cut demand at the same time. Exports were reduced 25 million bushels and feed and residual use 25 million, so 50 million bushels of the 141-million-bushel supply cut was absorbed by lower demand, leaving ending stocks down 91 million at 1.758 billion. Food, seed and industrial use, including ethanol, was unchanged.
Why did the market rally if the report also cut demand?
Because USDA came in below trade expectations. The analyst average ahead of the report was 1.826 billion bushels of corn ending stocks and 336 million bushels of soybean ending stocks, against USDA's 1.758 billion and 300 million. Both crops were tighter than the market had positioned for, regardless of the demand reductions.
Why did USDA lower its corn price forecast if stocks are tighter?
The release does not say. USDA cut the corn season-average farm price from $4.70 to $4.60 a bushel and also cut wheat's from $6.30 to $6.20 in the same report, even though wheat ending stocks rose. Identical price revisions alongside opposite stocks movements indicate the forecasts are not a direct function of the carryout figures.
Soybean production rose but ending stocks fell. How?
Projected exports rose 25 million bushels to 1.720 billion and seed use rose 3 million, against a production increase of only 12 million and a 1-million reduction in residual. Total use rose 27 million bushels against a 12-million supply increase, cutting carryout 15 million to 300 million.
What happened to sorghum?
Production fell 17 million bushels to 274 million on a 3.3 bushel yield reduction, but projected exports fell 35 million bushels to 125 million while feed and residual use rose only 10 million. Net demand fell further than supply, so ending stocks rose 8 million bushels to 34 million. Sorghum is the only crop in this release whose balance loosened.
What happened to wheat?
Very little domestically. US production was unchanged at 1.534 billion bushels and ending stocks rose 3 million to 743 million on a 3-million reduction in food use. Internationally, world production rose 5.12 million tonnes to 827.51 million and world ending stocks rose 4.78 million tonnes to 280.82 million.
Does this release contradict the bearish fund positioning in grains?
It sits against it in corn, but the two are not comparable observations. Managed Money positions were recorded as at Tuesday 3 November, a week before this report, so they could not reflect it. Whether positioning changed in response will first be visible in the release of 16 November.
The Bottom Line
The headline is a 141-million-bushel reduction in the corn crop, and the two figures that qualify it are the 50 million bushels of demand USDA removed alongside it and the fact that it still came in 68 million bushels below what the trade expected. A supply cut a third offset by lower projected exports and feed use is a weaker tightening than the production number alone suggests, but a carryout near the bottom of the analyst range is a bullish surprise regardless of how the agency got there. Both statements are true, and the second is the one the market traded.
The report resists a single directional reading in three other places. Sorghum had the deeper proportional production cut and still finished with a looser balance sheet, because its projected export market contracted faster than its crop. Global corn stocks rose 1.50 million tonnes while the US balance tightened, on higher South American forecasts. And USDA cut its corn and wheat farm price forecasts by the same ten cents in a report where corn stocks fell and wheat stocks rose, which is enough to show those projections are not tracking the carryout revisions.
What the release leaves open is whether the demand reductions in corn and sorghum begin a trend or mark one month of observed shipping. Both fell on trade-exposed categories while industrial use went untouched, and the export lines are now the ones carrying the balance in corn, sorghum and soybeans alike. The December WASDE on 10 December is the next scheduled test.
Data and Source Note
All USDA figures are taken from the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, WASDE 677, released at noon Eastern on 10 November 2026, and are compared against WASDE 676 of 9 October 2026. Both sets of projections refer to the 2026/27 marketing year. Grain and oilseed quantities are expressed in million bushels unless stated otherwise, cotton in million 480-pound bales, soybean oil in million pounds, and world figures in million metric tonnes. Yields are per harvested acre.
Several balances contain rounding differences or separately reported residual components, and these are identified in the relevant sections rather than smoothed over: the soybean production change cannot be reproduced from the displayed yield and acreage, and the cotton balance is completed by USDA's unaccounted line. Where a balance reconciles exactly, the arithmetic is shown. Pre-report analyst averages are trade survey estimates reported on 10 November 2026 and are not USDA forecasts. The quoted futures moves are intraday observations from contemporaneous market reports following the noon release, not independently retrieved CME Group settlement records. CFTC Managed Money positions are from the Disaggregated Commitments of Traders report, futures only, for positions dated Tuesday 3 November 2026, and predate this release.
