Last week, the US crop story appeared to be moving away from condition ratings and towards realised production. This week's USDA Crop Progress report accelerates that transition. Corn's brief stabilisation has ended, with good/excellent ratings slipping to a season-low 56% just as harvest begins. Soybeans have stopped deteriorating nationally, but more than a quarter of the crop is now dropping leaves. Spring wheat is 86% harvested, while cotton's tentative improvement has reversed abruptly, with good/excellent condition falling five percentage points to 34%.
Across the wider crop complex, development is generally running quickly. Rice harvest is 12 percentage points ahead of its five-year average, barley and oats are five points ahead, and sorghum maturity is eight points ahead. The common feature is therefore no longer simply deterioration; it is that the window for crop conditions to change the outcome is closing as maturity and harvest advance. For corn and soybeans in particular, condition ratings have largely asked the question. Harvest and USDA's production estimates now have to answer it.
TL;DR
- Corn fell to a season-low 56% good/excellent, from 57% last week and 68% a year ago.
- Corn development is ahead of normal: 76% dented, 25% mature and 5% harvested, against five-year averages of 72%, 23% and 3%.
- Soybean condition held at 58% good/excellent, ending the immediate deterioration seen last week, but remains six percentage points below last year.
- Soybean leaf drop accelerated to 26%, twice last week's 13% and ahead of the 20% five-year average.
- Cotton produced the sharpest deterioration: 34% good/excellent, down from 39% last week and 54% last year.
- Spring-wheat harvest reached 86%, ahead of both last year's 83% and the five-year average.
- Rice harvest reached 50% versus 38% normally, while barley and oat harvests are also five percentage points ahead of their respective five-year averages.
- The next major test is USDA's 11 September Crop Production report, as realised yield and production estimates increasingly supersede weekly condition ratings.
US Crop Dashboard
| Crop / stage | This week | Last week | Last year | 5yr avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corn — dough | 96% | 92% | 94% | 94% |
| Corn — dented | 76% | 62% | 72% | 72% |
| Corn — mature | 25% | 13% | 24% | 23% |
| Corn — harvested | 5% | n/r | 4% | 3% |
| Soybeans — dropping leaves | 26% | 13% | 20% | 20% |
| Winter wheat — planted | 2% | n/r | 4% | 5% |
| Spring wheat — harvested | 86% | 77% | 83% | 83% |
| Cotton — setting bolls | 96% | 89% | 96% | 96% |
| Cotton — bolls opening | 40% | 29% | 38% | 38% |
| Cotton — harvested | 7% | n/r | 7% | 6% |
| Sorghum — headed | 94% | 89% | 97% | 96% |
| Sorghum — colouring | 68% | 54% | 69% | 69% |
| Sorghum — mature | 41% | 29% | 36% | 33% |
| Sorghum — harvested | 20% | 17% | 20% | 20% |
| Rice — harvested | 50% | 38% | 43% | 38% |
| Barley — harvested | 90% | 77% | 85% | 85% |
| Oats — harvested | 98% | 94% | 93% | 93% |
n/r = not reported in the previous week's national Crop Progress table; it does not mean zero.
National Crop Condition Dashboard
| Crop | Last week G/E | Very poor | Poor | Fair | Good | Excellent | This week G/E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corn | 57% | 6% | 11% | 27% | 42% | 14% | 56% |
| Soybeans | 58% | 4% | 9% | 29% | 46% | 12% | 58% |
| Cotton | 39% | 11% | 21% | 34% | 29% | 5% | 34% |
| Rice | 71% | 1% | 3% | 23% | 56% | 17% | 73% |
| Peanuts | — | 1% | 8% | 29% | 55% | 7% | 62% |
For the principal crops, the week-on-week and year-on-year comparisons are increasingly divergent. Corn fell from 57% good/excellent last week to 56%, against 68% last year. Soybeans held at 58%, compared with 64% last year. Cotton fell from 39% to 34%, against 54% in 2025. Rice, by contrast, improved from 71% to 73% good/excellent.
Corn: The Crop Reaches Harvest at a Season Low
Corn remains the most consequential signal in the report. USDA rated 56% of the crop good or excellent, down from 57% a week earlier and 68% at the same point last year. Within that total, 14% is excellent and 42% good, while another 27% is fair and 17% is now rated poor or very poor.
The one-point weekly deterioration is not dramatic by itself. What matters is where it is occurring in the crop cycle, because development is moving quickly. Some 96% of corn has reached the dough stage, against 92% last week and 94% both last year and normally. The share dented jumped from 62% to 76% in a week, four percentage points ahead of both last year and the five-year average, while maturity almost doubled from 13% to 25%, versus 24% last year and 23% normally. Harvest has also begun, with USDA reporting 5% complete compared with 4% last year and a five-year average of 3%.
That combination changes the interpretation of declining condition. Earlier in the season, weaker ratings still left time for subsequent weather to alter crop prospects. With one-quarter of the crop mature and combines already moving, an increasing share of US corn has little remaining opportunity for conditions to change final yield potential.
That does not mean 56% good/excellent can be translated mechanically into a particular yield, because condition ratings are not yield estimates. It means the information hierarchy is changing. The question through August was whether weaker condition would persist into maturity, and it has. The question for September is whether that weakness appears in harvested yields and USDA's national production estimate.
Soybeans: Deterioration Pauses, Development Accelerates
Soybeans provide the clearest contrast with corn. Last week's report showed national good/excellent condition falling from 60% to 58%; this week it stayed there. Of the crop, 12% is rated excellent and 46% good, with another 29% fair and 13% poor or very poor. That remains materially behind 2025, when 64% was good/excellent, but there is no additional national deterioration in the latest report.
Development, however, has accelerated. USDA reported 26% of soybeans dropping leaves, exactly double last week's 13%, against 20% at the same stage last year and a five-year average of 20%.
The distinction matters. This is not a fresh deterioration signal comparable with cotton, nor even the incremental weakening visible in corn. Instead, a crop already rated materially below last year's level is progressing towards maturity faster than normal, and as that process continues the usefulness of small weekly condition changes diminishes.
The soybean signal is therefore more neutral than corn: condition has stabilised, but at a weaker level than 2025 while development moves quickly towards harvest. Realised yields increasingly become the next meaningful evidence.
Cotton Answers Last Week's Question
Cotton contains the clearest new deterioration in this week's report. Last week, national condition improved from 37% to 39% good/excellent, and the question was whether that represented the beginning of stabilisation after a difficult growing season or merely a temporary interruption.
This week's report provides the answer. Good/excellent condition fell five percentage points to 34%, with only 5% of the crop rated excellent and 29% good. Another 34% is fair, while 32% is now poor or very poor — almost as much of the national crop as is rated good or excellent. The year-on-year comparison is particularly stark: at this stage last year, 54% of US cotton was rated good or excellent, leaving the current crop 20 percentage points behind 2025.
Development is nevertheless proceeding normally to slightly ahead of normal. Cotton setting bolls reached 96%, up from 89% last week and exactly in line with both last year and the five-year average. Bolls are opening on 40% of the crop, up from 29% last week and ahead of both last year's 38% and the 38% five-year average, while harvest has reached 7%, matching last year and slightly ahead of the 6% five-year average.
Cotton is therefore the clearest example in this week's report of deteriorating quality meeting advancing development. The crop has not simply weakened; it has weakened materially at a point when an increasing proportion is opening bolls or already being harvested. That makes the production data increasingly more important than the next movement in the national condition rating.
Wheat: The 2026 Crop Is Becoming a Realised-Production Story
Spring wheat is rapidly becoming a completed harvest rather than a crop-progress story. USDA reported 86% harvested, up from 77% a week earlier, putting progress three percentage points ahead of both last year's 83% and the five-year average of 83%. The weekly Crop Progress report consequently has less new information to offer the 2026 spring-wheat market, and attention increasingly shifts towards realised production, grain quality, export competitiveness and the broader global wheat balance.
Meanwhile, planting of the 2027 winter-wheat crop has begun. USDA reported 2% planted, behind 4% at the same point last year and the five-year average of 5%. That gap is too early to carry much analytical weight — a few percentage points at the beginning of September can be recovered quickly, and only a limited part of the national crop is normally in the ground at this stage. The winter-wheat number becomes relevant if the shortfall persists as planting expands.
Sorghum: Maturity Is Running Well Ahead
Sorghum reinforces the broader story of rapid late-season development. USDA reported 94% headed, up from 89% last week although slightly behind 97% last year and the 96% five-year average, while 68% is colouring, up sharply from 54% last week and broadly in line with 69% both last year and normally.
The more notable figure is maturity. Some 41% of sorghum is mature, against 29% last week, 36% last year and only 33% normally, putting maturity eight percentage points ahead of the five-year pace. Harvest itself is 20% complete, up from 17% last week and exactly in line with both last year and the five-year average. The crop is therefore developing rapidly even though the national harvest pace has yet to move ahead of normal.
Rice, Barley and Oats: Harvest Is Moving Quickly
Rice provides the clearest harvest acceleration outside the principal Cropwire crops. US harvest reached 50%, up from 38% last week, against 43% last year and a five-year average of just 38% — twelve percentage points ahead of normal. Condition is also comparatively strong, with USDA rating 73% good/excellent, comprising 56% good and 17% excellent, and only 4% poor or very poor.
Barley harvest also accelerated sharply, from 77% to 90% in a week, compared with 85% both last year and on the five-year average. Oat harvest is almost complete at 98%, up from 94% last week and five percentage points ahead of both last year's and the five-year average of 93%. Taken together, these crops reinforce one of the broader messages from this week's report: the US harvest season is developing quickly.
Peanuts and Pasture: A Mixed Secondary Picture
Peanut condition remains relatively healthy, with USDA rating 62% good or excellent, comprising 55% good and 7% excellent, against 29% fair and 9% poor or very poor.
The pasture picture is considerably weaker. National pasture and rangeland rated poor or very poor has risen to 53%, one percentage point higher than the previous week. That is relevant as a broader indicator of moisture stress across US agricultural regions, although it should not be used as a direct proxy for row-crop yield. It does, however, reinforce the degree to which parts of the US agricultural landscape are entering autumn under significant stress.
The Broader Signal: Harvest Is Running Fast
Looking beyond individual commodities reveals a fairly consistent pattern. Corn maturity and harvest are ahead of normal, soybean leaf drop is six percentage points ahead, cotton boll opening is slightly ahead, spring wheat harvest is three points ahead, sorghum maturity is eight points ahead, rice harvest is 12 points ahead, and barley and oat harvests are each five points ahead.
This does not automatically imply lower yields. Rapid crop development can have different causes and consequences, and an early harvest can reduce exposure to damaging late-season weather. But it does mean the period during which weather can materially alter crop outcomes is shortening rapidly, and that is particularly important where condition is already weak.
For cotton, 34% good/excellent is increasingly being locked into a crop where 40% of bolls are already open. For corn, the season-low 56% rating arrives with 25% mature and harvest already underway. For soybeans, the crop is not deteriorating further nationally, but leaf drop is running materially ahead of normal. The market is moving from potential towards measurement.
From Condition to Production
That transition is now the central US crop story. Crop Progress remains useful, but its information value changes as harvest advances.
For corn, this week's report tells us the crop has entered harvest with its weakest national condition rating of the season and materially below 2025. For soybeans, it tells us that deterioration has paused but maturity is advancing rapidly with condition still below last year. For cotton, it tells us that last week's apparent stabilisation was temporary and deterioration has resumed sharply. For spring wheat, it tells us that harvest is nearly complete. And across several secondary crops, it tells us that maturity and harvest are generally running at or ahead of normal.
None of those observations tells us precisely what final national yields will be. The next USDA release takes the market closer to that answer: the September Crop Production report is scheduled for Friday 11 September at 12:00 ET, and is the next major production-data test as the market shifts away from weekly assessments of how crops look and towards evidence of what they will actually produce.
The sequencing matters. August was about estimating damage. Early September has shown that the weaker condition picture in corn and cotton did not meaningfully recover before maturity accelerated. Now comes measurement.
Outlook
Base case: US crop development and harvest continue at or ahead of normal, progressively reducing the importance of weekly condition ratings. Corn enters harvest with a materially weaker condition profile than 2025, soybeans remain comparatively stable, and cotton carries the clearest late-season deterioration.
Upside production risk: Early harvested yields prove stronger than implied by the condition data, allowing production expectations to remain resilient despite weaker ratings. Rapid maturity also allows harvest to advance without significant late-season weather losses.
Downside production risk: Early field results confirm that late-summer deterioration reduced yield potential, particularly in corn, while cotton's sharp condition decline translates into weaker production expectations.
What would change the view: Material changes to USDA's yield and production estimates, followed by consistent harvested-yield evidence, now matter more than another one- or two-point movement in national good/excellent ratings.
Key Risks
- Condition ratings are not yield estimates. A weaker good/excellent percentage does not translate mechanically into lower national production.
- Rapid maturity cuts both ways. It reduces the opportunity for crop conditions to recover, but also reduces exposure to damaging late-season weather.
- National figures conceal substantial regional variation. State and district-level yields can differ materially even when national ratings move only slightly.
- Soybean deterioration has paused. Treating all major US crops as simultaneously worsening would overstate this week's report.
- Cotton's weekly deterioration requires production confirmation. The five-point fall is material, but output estimates provide the more direct measure of its economic significance.
- Winter-wheat planting is too early to interpret. The 2% figure is behind normal but does not yet constitute a meaningful planting problem.
- Fast harvest progress is not inherently bearish or bullish. The market ultimately needs yield and production evidence.
Intelligence Monitoring Points
- Corn harvested yield: the most important confirmation of whether the season-low condition rating is translating into weaker productivity.
- 11 September Crop Production: the next major USDA production-data test.
- Corn harvest: 5% complete versus 3% normally; watch both pace and early yield reports.
- Soybean condition: whether 58% marks genuine stabilisation through maturity.
- Soybean development: leaf drop at 26% versus 20% normally.
- Cotton condition: whether the fall to 34% good/excellent continues as boll opening advances.
- Cotton production: whether deteriorating condition translates into lower expected output.
- Spring wheat: harvest at 86%; attention increasingly shifts to realised production and quality.
- Winter-wheat planting: 2% versus 5% normally; relevant if the shortfall persists over subsequent reports.
- Sorghum maturity: 41% versus 33% normally.
- Rice harvest: 50% versus 38% normally, one of the clearest pace divergences in the report.
- Pasture and rangeland: 53% poor/very poor as a broader measure of agricultural moisture stress.
FAQ
What is the biggest signal in this week's USDA Crop Progress report? The transition from condition towards harvest. Corn has reached a season-low 56% good/excellent just as harvest begins, while cotton condition deteriorated sharply to 34%. At the same time, crop development and harvest are running ahead of normal across much of the US complex.
Is the US corn crop still deteriorating? National good/excellent condition fell one percentage point to 56%, its lowest level of the season. More importantly, 25% of the crop is mature and 5% has already been harvested, so the market is increasingly moving from condition ratings towards realised yield.
How far behind last year is corn condition? Twelve percentage points. Corn is 56% good/excellent compared with 68% at the same point in 2025.
Are soybeans getting worse? Not nationally this week. Good/excellent condition held at 58%. However, that remains below 64% last year and development is moving quickly, with 26% dropping leaves versus 20% normally.
Why is cotton important this week? Because last week's improvement reversed sharply. Good/excellent condition fell from 39% to 34%, compared with 54% last year, even as 40% of bolls are open and harvest has reached 7%.
How much cotton is now in poor condition? Some 32% is rated poor or very poor, comprising 21% poor and 11% very poor. That is close to the 34% rated good or excellent.
How far advanced is the US harvest? It varies considerably by crop. Corn is 5% harvested, cotton 7%, sorghum 20%, rice 50%, spring wheat 86%, barley 90% and oats 98%.
Which crop is furthest ahead of its normal harvest pace? Among the crops in the national dashboard, rice stands out at 50% harvested versus a five-year average of 38%.
Is winter-wheat planting behind? Yes, but it is too early to treat that as significant. Planting is 2% complete versus 4% last year and a five-year average of 5%. The gap matters only if it persists as planting expands.
What should the market watch next? USDA's Crop Production report on 11 September. As harvest expands, production estimates and realised yields increasingly provide more useful information than weekly condition ratings.
Primary data: USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service, Crop Progress, week ended 6 September 2026, released 8 September 2026. Next USDA Crop Production report scheduled for 11 September 2026 at 12:00 ET.
Sources
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