Commodities3 November 2026 · 3,559 words · 16 min read
US Crop Intelligence — Winter Wheat Opens at 44% Good or Excellent as Southern Plains Lag
usdacornsoybeanssorghumwheatcottonnovember-2026
US winter-wheat planting and emergence have almost returned to their seasonal benchmarks, but the first condition assessment for the 2027 crop reveals considerable regional weakness. Just 44% of the national crop is rated good or excellent, with Oklahoma and Texas reporting particularly poor establishment conditions. Elsewhere, corn and soybean harvesting continued to recover, while sorghum remains substantially behind normal in the central Plains. The latest USDA figures show a harvest moving towards completion alongside a more uneven outlook for the next wheat crop.
TL;DR
Winter wheat: The first national condition assessment rates 44% good or excellent, 38% fair and 18% poor or very poor.
Southern Plains: Oklahoma reports only 25% good or excellent, with planting 17 points and emergence 18 points behind normal. Texas has 34% poor or very poor.
Corn: Harvesting advanced 14 percentage points to 74%, reducing the deficit against the five-year average to three points.
Soybeans: Harvesting reached 88%, four points ahead of normal, although Kansas and Nebraska remain behind.
Sorghum: Harvesting reached 64% against a 78% average. Nebraska is 29 points behind and Kansas 21 points behind.
Cotton: Harvesting advanced to 63%, nine points ahead of normal, led by continued progress in Texas and the Delta.
Moisture: National topsoil moisture was broadly stable in aggregate, but the very-short category expanded, and Oklahoma, Texas and parts of the Delta remain dry.
US Crop Dashboard
The USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service released its latest Crop Progress report on Monday 2 November, covering the week ended Sunday 1 November 2026.
Indicator
25 Oct
1 Nov
5-year avg.
Gap
Corn harvested
60%
74%
77%
−3 pp
Soybeans harvested
79%
88%
84%
+4 pp
Sorghum mature
93%
96%
100%
−4 pp
Sorghum harvested
56%
64%
78%
−14 pp
Winter wheat planted
76%
83%
84%
−1 pp
Winter wheat emerged
53%
65%
65%
0 pp
Cotton bolls opening
89%
92%
95%
−3 pp
Cotton harvested
52%
63%
54%
+9 pp
Source: USDA NASS, Crop Progress, released 2 November 2026. Gaps are percentage points against the corresponding 2021–25 five-year average. The gap compares 1 November 2026 with the five-year average for the same reporting week. The previous-week observation is shown for context and has a different corresponding seasonal average.
The national figures confirm a continuing recovery in harvest progress. Corn has reduced its deficit for a second consecutive week, soybeans have extended their lead over normal, and cotton harvesting is running well ahead of its seasonal benchmark.
Sorghum is the exception. Its national harvest deficit widened from 13 to 14 points despite further progress, and the central Plains remain considerably behind normal.
Winter wheat presents a different question. Planting is almost on schedule and emergence has reached its five-year average, but the first condition observations show that timely establishment and satisfactory crop condition cannot be treated as equivalent.
Winter Wheat: Progress Recovers, but Condition Reveals Weakness
Winter-wheat planting advanced seven points to 83%, one point below the five-year average. Emergence increased 12 points to 65%, matching its seasonal benchmark after trailing by one point in the preceding week.
Those figures suggest that the national establishment timetable has largely recovered from the delays reported earlier in October. The new condition assessment, however, provides a more discriminating view of the crop entering winter.
USDA rated 44% of winter wheat good or excellent, 38% fair and 18% poor or very poor. This is the first national condition rating for the 2027 crop, rather than a weekly deterioration from an earlier assessment. The distribution varies considerably by state.
State
Planted
Planting avg.
Emerged
Emergence avg.
Good/excellent
Poor/very poor
Kansas
86%
87%
66%
68%
47%
20%
Oklahoma
62%
79%
41%
59%
25%
25%
Texas
77%
75%
63%
53%
33%
34%
Nebraska
98%
94%
89%
85%
67%
14%
Colorado
99%
96%
81%
79%
37%
10%
Washington
99%
97%
94%
82%
25%
11%
Source: USDA NASS, Winter Wheat Planted, Emerged and Condition — Selected States, week ended 1 November 2026.
Oklahoma is the clearest concern. Planting stands at 62%, compared with a normal 79%, while emergence is 41% against 59%. Both measures improved during the week, but the state remains 17 and 18 percentage points behind their respective benchmarks.
Its condition distribution is also weak. Only one-quarter of the crop is rated good or excellent, half is fair and the remaining quarter poor or very poor. The combination of delayed emergence and a relatively small proportion of favourable condition ratings makes Oklahoma materially different from the national picture.
Texas is further advanced in establishment but has a larger share of wheat in the two weakest condition categories. Planting is two points ahead of normal and emergence ten points ahead, yet 34% of the crop is rated poor or very poor and only 33% good or excellent.
Kansas provides a more balanced comparison. Planting and emergence are close to normal, with 47% rated good or excellent and 20% poor or very poor. Its condition profile is stronger than Oklahoma's or Texas's, although it is not uniformly favourable. The wider state figures reinforce the unevenness: Nebraska reports 67% good or excellent, while Washington has only 25%, despite planting and emergence being ahead of normal.
These observations matter because the autumn establishment period influences the condition in which winter wheat enters dormancy. However, the November rating is not a yield forecast. Subsequent moisture, temperatures, winter survival and spring growing conditions can materially change the crop outlook. The immediate conclusion is that national planting progress has recovered more convincingly than the early condition profile.
Corn: Harvest Deficit Narrows for a Second Week
Corn harvesting reached 74% in the week ended 1 November, up 14 points from 60%. The five-year average is 77%, leaving the national harvest three points behind normal.
That compares with a six-point deficit in the preceding report and eight points two weeks earlier. The direction has therefore improved consistently, although approximately one-quarter of the crop remained unharvested at the reporting date. The state figures show a substantial recovery in previously delayed areas.
State
25 Oct
1 Nov
5-year avg.
Gap
Iowa
47%
66%
79%
−13 pp
South Dakota
44%
63%
75%
−12 pp
Michigan
28%
43%
54%
−11 pp
Nebraska
55%
66%
75%
−9 pp
Ohio
35%
53%
60%
−7 pp
Minnesota
65%
82%
85%
−3 pp
Illinois
74%
86%
83%
+3 pp
Indiana
61%
75%
71%
+4 pp
Source: USDA NASS, Corn Harvested — Selected States. The gap compares 1 November 2026 with the five-year average for the same reporting week. The previous-week observation is shown for context and has a different corresponding seasonal average.
Iowa recorded a 19-point weekly advance, reducing its deficit from 20 to 13 points. South Dakota also advanced 19 points, narrowing its shortfall from 18 to 12. Michigan improved 15 points but remains 11 points behind normal.
The progress is material because these states were among the main contributors to the earlier national delay. Their recovery has reduced the amount of acreage still awaiting harvest relative to the normal seasonal timetable. The improvement was not uniform: Nebraska remained nine points behind and Ohio seven points behind, while Illinois and Indiana were ahead of their averages.
Fieldwork conditions also became less favourable in several central and northern states during the latest week. Iowa reported 5.1 days suitable for fieldwork, down from 6.4, while South Dakota fell from 6.2 to 4.1 and Nebraska from 6.1 to 4.6. Harvesting nevertheless advanced substantially, demonstrating that the week's completed work cannot be inferred from suitable-day totals alone.
The latest data reduce the scale of the earlier national harvest-delay concern. They do not establish the volume of corn delivered to commercial storage or determine final yields. Crop Progress measures the share of acreage harvested, not the quantity or quality of grain entering the supply chain.
Soybeans: Harvest Extends Its Lead Over Normal
Soybean harvesting advanced nine points to 88%, compared with a five-year average of 84%. The national lead over normal widened from two points in the preceding week to four.
The recovery is broad across the principal producing states. Illinois reached 91% harvested against an 85% average, Indiana 87% against 81%, and Wisconsin 94% against 84%. Iowa reached 90%, matching its five-year average after remaining six points behind the preceding week, and Michigan advanced to 81% against a normal 72%, continuing its strong recovery from earlier delays.
There are still regional exceptions. Kansas stands at 72% against a 78% average, while Nebraska is 84% against 88%. Both remain behind normal, although their deficits are smaller than those affecting the most delayed corn-producing states.
The national picture is consequently more advanced than corn's. With 88% of soybean acreage harvested, a smaller share of the crop remains exposed to further interruptions in field operations. That does not mean all harvested soybeans are immediately available for commercial use. Drying, storage, transportation and marketing decisions affect the movement of harvested grain into commercial channels, and the USDA progress figures establish the completion of harvesting, not the timing of sales or deliveries.
The latest report also provides no new national soybean condition assessment. Its principal contribution is confirmation that harvesting is moving towards completion ahead of the seasonal benchmark.
Sorghum: Central Plains Deficits Remain Substantial
Sorghum is the clearest continuing harvest-delay exception in the latest report. National harvesting advanced eight points to 64%, but the five-year average reached 78%, so the deficit widened from 13 to 14 percentage points. Crop maturity rose from 93% to 96%, against a normal 100%.
The distinction between maturity and harvesting remains important. Most sorghum acreage has reached maturity, but a considerably smaller share has been harvested.
State
25 Oct harvested
1 Nov harvested
5-year avg.
Gap
Kansas
40%
49%
70%
−21 pp
Nebraska
35%
42%
71%
−29 pp
South Dakota
51%
63%
79%
−16 pp
Colorado
45%
65%
71%
−6 pp
Oklahoma
66%
71%
66%
+5 pp
Texas
95%
97%
98%
−1 pp
Six-state total
56%
64%
78%
−14 pp
Source: USDA NASS, Sorghum Harvested — Selected States. The six-state total is USDA's published national figure for sorghum harvested at this point in the season. The gap compares 1 November 2026 with the five-year average for the same reporting week. The previous-week observation is shown for context and has a different corresponding seasonal average.
Nebraska is now the most delayed state relative to normal, at 42% harvested against a 71% average. Its deficit widened from 24 to 29 points, despite a seven-point weekly advance. Kansas improved from 40% to 49% harvested, reducing its deficit from 25 to 21 points, South Dakota narrowed its shortfall from 19 to 16 points, and Colorado advanced sharply to 65%.
The contrasting movements are important. Kansas and South Dakota made progress against their seasonal benchmarks, but Nebraska fell further behind because its weekly harvest advance was smaller than the corresponding increase in the five-year average. Fieldwork conditions also tightened in the two most delayed states, with Kansas reporting 4.6 days suitable for fieldwork against 6.3 the previous week, and Nebraska 4.6 against 6.1.
Maturity also remains incomplete in the central Plains. Kansas was 92% mature against 98% normally, while Nebraska stood at 94% against 99%. These gaps are narrower than the harvest deficits, indicating that delayed harvesting is more pronounced than delayed crop development.
Sorghum therefore remains the strongest example of a crop where the broader national harvest recovery has not resolved regional constraints.
Cotton: Harvesting Advances, but Condition Evidence Is Older
Cotton harvesting reached 63%, an 11-point weekly advance and nine points ahead of the five-year average of 54%. Boll opening reached 92%, three points behind normal. The combination is not contradictory: boll opening and completed harvesting measure different stages and are calculated against separate seasonal benchmarks.
Texas advanced from 55% to 61% harvested, compared with a normal 48%. Arkansas reached 92% against 84%, Mississippi 95% against 80%, and Missouri 87% against 72%. Oklahoma improved from 17% to 32%, although it remains six points behind its average; its relative position has improved since the preceding report, when the deficit was ten points.
The latest release does not include a new cotton-condition table. The preceding report, covering 25 October, rated national cotton condition 33% good or excellent and 37% poor or very poor, with particularly weak conditions in Oklahoma and Texas. Those observations remain relevant background, but they cannot be described as new evidence of improvement or deterioration during the week ended 1 November.
The latest data establish that harvesting has advanced strongly despite earlier condition concerns. They do not establish whether those concerns have affected realised yields, fibre quality or final production.
The Physical Picture
The relationship between harvest progress and soil moisture has become more complex.
National topsoil rated short or very short remained at 38%, but the composition deteriorated slightly: the very-short category increased from 12% to 13%, while the short category declined from 26% to 25%. Adequate moisture fell from 57% to 56%, and surplus increased from 5% to 6%. The aggregate moisture deficit was unchanged, although the most severe category expanded.
The regional distribution is far less uniform. Oklahoma reported 46% of topsoil short or very short, including 11% very short, and Texas recorded 40% short or very short. These figures provide relevant context for the weak winter-wheat condition readings, although they do not prove that moisture deficits alone caused the condition distribution.
Kansas presents a useful contrast. Only 20% of its topsoil was rated short or very short, with 71% adequate and 9% surplus, and its wheat establishment and condition figures are also stronger than Oklahoma's.
The Delta is more severely affected by dryness. Arkansas reported 95% of topsoil short or very short, including 73% very short. Louisiana stood at 87% and Mississippi at 81%. Subsoil readings were similarly weak, with Arkansas reporting 96% short or very short.
These figures warrant attention even as soybean and cotton harvesting approaches completion. Dry conditions may have different implications for field access, residual soil moisture and subsequent crop establishment, depending on the crop and region.
The physical picture is therefore divided. Corn and soybean harvest progress has improved, sorghum remains delayed in the central Plains, and winter wheat faces uneven establishment conditions despite near-normal national planting and emergence.
Outlook
The next USDA release will provide an early test of whether the winter-wheat condition distribution improves as planting and emergence progress towards completion.
Oklahoma is particularly important because it combines delayed planting, delayed emergence, low good-or-excellent ratings and substantial topsoil moisture deficits. Texas requires separate attention because its establishment timetable is ahead of normal while a relatively large proportion of the crop is already rated poor or very poor.
For corn, the question is whether Iowa, South Dakota and Michigan continue closing their remaining deficits. Soybean harvesting is approaching completion nationally, making the remaining state-level delays less significant to the aggregate progress measure.
Sorghum remains the most pronounced harvest concern. Nebraska's widening deficit and the remaining Kansas shortfall warrant continued monitoring, particularly as the seasonal window narrows and workable field days contract in both states.
These are observations about crop progress and condition, not forecasts of final yields or prices.
Key Risks
Winter-wheat establishment. Near-normal national planting and emergence conceal weak condition ratings in Oklahoma and Texas.
Regional moisture deficits. Topsoil and subsoil conditions differ sharply between states, with particularly severe dryness in parts of the Delta, and the national very-short category expanded even as the combined deficit held.
Sorghum harvest delays. Nebraska and Kansas remain materially behind normal, even as other crops approach completion.
Residual corn delays. Iowa, South Dakota and Michigan still have substantial unharvested acreage relative to their seasonal benchmarks.
Condition versus production. Early condition ratings are subjective assessments, not direct measures of yield or final crop size.
Harvest versus availability. Harvest completion does not measure grain deliveries, commercial inventories or transport conditions.
Historical comparisons. Five-year averages are seasonal benchmarks, not production forecasts. Direct observations for the corresponding 2025 week are unavailable.
Intelligence Monitoring Points
Winter wheat: The national good-or-excellent share of 44%, with particular attention to Oklahoma at 25% and Texas at 33%.
Oklahoma establishment: Planting at 62% against 79% normally, and emergence at 41% against 59%.
Corn: Whether the national three-point harvest deficit closes, particularly in Iowa and South Dakota.
Soybeans: Whether harvesting maintains its four-point lead over normal as completion approaches.
Sorghum: Nebraska's 29-point deficit and Kansas's 21-point deficit, alongside workable field days in both states.
Cotton: Whether harvesting continues ahead of normal and whether any subsequent condition observations materially alter the earlier weak ratings.
Moisture: Oklahoma and Texas topsoil conditions, the direction of the national very-short category, and severe Delta dryness.
How much US winter wheat was rated good or excellent on 1 November 2026?
USDA rated 44% good or excellent, 38% fair and 18% poor or very poor. This was the first national condition assessment for the 2027 winter-wheat crop.
Which winter-wheat states reported the weakest conditions?
Oklahoma recorded 25% good or excellent and Texas 33%. Texas had 34% poor or very poor, compared with 25% in Oklahoma. Other states also recorded low good-or-excellent shares, but the southern Plains combination of establishment delays and weak condition is particularly relevant.
Is US winter-wheat planting behind normal?
Only marginally at the national level. Planting reached 83%, one point below average, while emergence reached 65%, matching its five-year average. Oklahoma remains substantially behind on both measures.
How much corn has been harvested?
USDA reported 74% harvested, three points below the five-year average of 77%. The deficit has narrowed from eight points two weeks earlier.
Is soybean harvesting ahead of normal?
Yes. Harvesting reached 88% against an average of 84%. Iowa matched its average, while Illinois and several other producing states were ahead.
Why is sorghum still important?
National sorghum harvesting is 64% complete against a 78% average. Nebraska is 29 points behind normal and Kansas 21 points behind, making sorghum a significant exception to the broader harvest recovery.
Does the 44% winter-wheat condition rating forecast a poor harvest?
No. It is an early observational assessment of the growing crop. Winter survival, subsequent moisture and spring growing conditions can change the eventual production outcome.
Data and Source Note
All current progress, condition, fieldwork and moisture figures are from USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service, Crop Progress, released 2 November 2026 for the week ended 1 November 2026.
Previous-week observations refer to 25 October 2026, and five-year averages refer to the corresponding week using USDA's published 2021–25 benchmarks. Changes and gaps are expressed in percentage points. Each gap compares the 1 November observation with the five-year average for that same reporting week; previous-week observations have their own, different seasonal averages and should not be compared with the averages shown.
The report covers designated producing states, with coverage differing by crop. National progress and condition figures are weighted estimates rather than simple averages of the states displayed in the article. The national winter-wheat condition assessment covers 18 reporting states representing 90% of 2025 US winter-wheat planted acreage. The sorghum national total is published by USDA as a six-state figure at this point in the season.
The first winter-wheat condition assessment relates to the 2027 crop. No previous-week national winter-wheat condition rating is provided. The cotton-condition figures identified as historical refer to the preceding week's report.
USDA crop progress and condition estimates are derived from approximately 3,600 non-probability survey respondents. Condition ratings are subjective field assessments. Progress, condition, soil moisture and days suitable for fieldwork measure different aspects of agricultural activity and should not be treated as estimates of final production or commercial supply.
